Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Belated Happy Dipawali.....

Firstly let me please wish everyone of you a belated Happy Dipawali! I hope and pray that this Dipawali onwards all of you make tons of money. Well I was on a self imposed three days off the markets. Actually my schedule for past few days had been so hectic that I did not have time to check mail, see markets leave aside trading. There was nothing in the markets that would have cheered me - or for that matter anyone except the Mahurrat Trading yesterday - Ofcourse it came as an answer to a million prayers ;-).
"All that goes up - must come down..." well the opposite also has to be true. There is another angle to it... the sharper the rise the harder the fall... so putting this the other way ... the harder the fall - the sharper the recovery. Well I am sure that the ferocity of this rise now will kill as many bears as many as the dead bulls. Would I buy in this - ? actually I should have already bought - like they say - there is nothing like finding the exact bottom or the exact high a day prior to when it happens.

Well I will not talk about the Global cues a day before - but for today - the world has gone crazy it seems covering their shorts. FTSE and CAC were the moderates closing just 1.92% and 1.55% up. Dax is up by 11.28% up. US gains too are nothing but out of the world. Dow up 10.88%, Nasdaq up 9.53% and S&P up 10.79%. If the bears do not cover in these circumstances then they never will. Asia too has started on firm footing. Nikkei up 6.18% in early trade. Hang Seng and Strait Times - both up 1.49% and 2.42% as of now. Nikkei had opened moderately up and moved up with vigour and the other two are just about oscillating in positive.

On to the candles now. There was a Hammer day before - on 27th. The following white candle should signal a reversal in short term. See the problem here is that the trading was only for an odd hour and the volumes were too low - means the bears may be too busy celebrating to be involved in the markets. The real conformation that should come - would be today as to where we swing. The Bollinger bands continue to be as wide as before. The 5 EMA too is still way below the blue line - but slightly lesser than day before. The MACD divergence has reduced a little bit. Mass index is on 26 point. Have no doubt about this rally - we will at some time retest these levels we are leaving behind. The RSI is grossly oversold and that should be a relief to bulls (if there any left in the wild - and have not been tamed so far). The TRIX still continues to look down with still no mood to look up. The Slow Stochastic - red line has crossed over above the blue line and has infact come out from below the 20 marker. The blue line remains below the Red line now and still not out of the oversold territory. So as I see it - we should hit and break a couple of resistances and that should be helped by massive short covering that should trigger off - the last Thursday being tomorrow.

Best of Luck everybody.



Anonymous said...

Happy Diwali!

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Uma