Thursday, December 11, 2008

WoW… that’s a wonderful run up…

Want a controversial controversy? Watch

Before I start with writing the blog – I would like to tell you that this is my 150th post on  this blog – meaningful or not – there were so many times when I though that this is a waste of time to share my experiences as they do not matter – but then I am typing my a hundred fiftieth post and somehow that makes be proud in some sense. I have survived so for so long. Hope I continue getting moral help to continue with same vigour.

So the past few days did turn out to be good – mind you that barring small breaks in-between this sun up should still continue – at the most touching a small low of 2800/2900 at the most. There is an environment that wants this bear market behind us. Tough at the end of the day the bears will still play havoc – but like they say – make hay while sun shines. Infact this is not happening only on the our national scale – this is on the global scale – month after month – week after week – bad bad bad and then a relief. Ideally this was expected some time back but it has come now –at a time when other small but significant news and events are with this rally. Out govt along with many others are taking steps to sort out the issue. Oil is touching its all time low. Elections and expected dynamism of Obama, all countries in some way or other doing what can be done to contain the damage. Mind you all this will take its time to show up in the markets and the economy in general. If we do classify this as one of the worst recessions in the history then the bad news is yet to actually come in. The real estate has been a mute spectator standing on the sidelines and standing stout – hardly rolling back the prices, the uncertainty of the job cuts will next figure up when there is a significant reduction in salaries of those who are not shifted to the unemployed line – under threat perhaps to be the next to be sorted out. That fear of job cuts and salary cuts will force the people save for the uncertain future – the spending will further fall – and that will snowball into further deepening recession. Ah! worry not that is still some time away – but do not forget that all rises will be sold into and ultimately we will touch lower than before levels.getImageFromSession.php

The Global cues continue to be good at the moment. Asia closed – Nikkei up 3.15%, HangSeng up 5.59% and Strait Times up 3.83%. Europe is the first one to doubt and seems that it has not been able to digest this run up – Europe remain confused. FTSE was in red 0.32%, DAX up 0.54% and Cac up 0.68%. All the doubts created by Europe will be put to rest if we see US closing well in green – that seems like a possibility so far. At the moment the US after opening in green has crossed the mid session remaining in green by about a percentage point. It is now that it seems to show some doubts of continuing in green. The Indexes are looking like going down  - will just have to wait and see where we go by the end of their session.

On the Charts the candle was good and white and confidently crossed the middle of the Bollinger band. Remember last time the candles turned back from the middle of the bands. This time it seems as the candles have the capacity to touch the upper band. The upper band is at a few points above 3000 and be careful if we reach that level. I do not see the candles being violated on the upper side. The 5 EMA has crossed over comfortably the 20 EMA line and many would actually see this as a point to enter market – in longs. Some guts they have though technically they are right. The volumes were higher than the recent past few days. MACD divergence has increased with the Red line increasing the distance between the red and blue line. RSI is GOOOOOOOD and so is Slow Stochastic. TRIX is looking up like staring the stars.

So expect for a small breather the upswing should ideally continue.

Pivot data…
R3 3095 against 3008 yesterday
R2 3039
R1 2983
Pivot 2884 against 2786 yesterday
S1 2828
S2 2729
S3 2673 against 2564 yesterday
Projected High Range 2934 to 3011
Projected Low Range 2868 to 2791
Fib Projected High 2982
Fib Projected Low 2742

Okay I will look out for two very important levels where reversal to what ever is the starting trend should be the turn about point. If the market opens green then the level I will watch out for is 3039 and if it opens in red then I will look out whether the level – 2828 holds.



Natasha said...

WoW! Thats a Wonderul Write Up!!
Dear Mr. Cheema,
Let me first congratulate you on an 'overwhelming' response you got from TIS Boarders. Thats an accomplishment in itself.
Need I say, you are getting better and better day by day...
Thank U for sharing your thoughts,
Best Regards,
Natz :-)

S S Cheema said...

Thanks for the compliments Natasha