Time of reckoning is just around the corner… Update for 04 Feb 09

I will not be able to say off the hand as to where we go but by seeing the Nifty candles the charts are following a narrowing trend and nearing a breakout point. I will pray that it is in the positive sense but then no points for guesses at the moment. I will again say – there is no way I can give you where we are headed to – do not bet too strongly at a breakdown. It may surprise everyone. Should I say that the markets are fed-up of bad news? The worst of news is reacted mildly and a tinker of good news gives a support. That’s good. Mind you that this formation (trend narrowing) is not only made in Nifty – it has been made in majority of the stocks that matter on nifty. The stocks have moved into a narrow range begging for a breakout.

The day today was not really bad – it could have been but it was not.The 5 EMA is close to crossing over the 20 EMA. 20 EMA however keeps its distance from the 50 EMA. The ADX is confusing if we see in the smaller time frame – just take it in a broader perspective then it shows that whenever the the markets have gained in the last three months – the ADX has shown strength. Whenever however – the markets fall – the ADX turns weak. I will take this as a bullish sign. MACD has no divergence – so can tip any side. RSI is not bad either. Climbing towards 50 and hopefully will go beyond. Slow Stochastic has dropped from the overbought zone. TRIX is good and started looking up. So purely by the Candles – my call would be green times to come.

The global cues are mixed at the best – Asia had Nikkei down 0.62% and hang Seng was down 0.66% – Strait Times was green 0.39%. Europe is all green at the moment. FTSE up 1.13%, DAX up 1.00% and CAC 0.75%. There is still time for the markets close there so watch out where they go too.US is undecisive but green with the report that the buyers have snapped up foreclosed properties. That may actually be a good news. The Dow is up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.35% and S&P up 0.43%. They are choppy –and it is still a long way to go so wait and watch is the word for it.

Provisionally FIIs have sold 278 Cr and DIIs sold 7.75 Cr. With both the FIIs and DIIs selling – we closed green? impressive.

Let us see the Pivot data…

R3 2910
R2 2867
R1 2825
Pivot 2788
S1 2746
S2 2709
S3 2667
Projected High Range 2807 to 2846
Projected Low Range 2815 to 2776
Fib Projected High 2852
Fib Projected Low 2730

So lets us see what the coming few days have in store for us. What ever it might be – I assure you it will be exciting…