Update for 24 Jun 09…

I do get surprised how most of the comments by so called experts change when the tidings change of the markets. Take now for example. A few days back the market men were talking about being out of the woods and were preaching the ‘Buy on dips’ strategy, just five odd bad days and already you start hearing how we are still in the woods and should take all the opportunity to ‘Sell on every rise’. It was amazing how the hype to buy was built up and suddenly the hype to sell is being created. I am sure the retail caught this trend on the upside too late and will not sell till the time he is well into a substantial loss. then he will think about “Agar I had entered at so and so level” Its one big sham to steal money. Anyway those who are in this game whether loosing or winning are here on their own so cannot blame anyone really. It is the question of who survives in this virtual jungle. 

Like I am going to say now and have been saying – there are events that can change the direction of our markets so till then just contend with a day up and day down. Budget is one. Frankly budget should have ideally lost its relevance in the true sense as the policy decision are taken through out the year. Why this has so much significance attached to it is – that the govt is now without pulls and pressures of past with it and whatever budget they present will show them in the true light as to what they really intend to do over the next five years. Frankly whatever they do – I personally feel the markets will tank – and my father feels that the markets will run up like crazy. Let me also say here that he has habit of getting the mood right generally. Now if that be so the opinion – then you can do two things – sit back and see the tamasha – or be hedged like in HEDGED. The second is the monsoons. They seem to be playing havoc with our sentiments – started by being predicted that they will be good and normal to deficient and late. We might feel comfortable sitting in an ac and getting things to order –but majority of our country is still out there in the field trying hard to feed us the lucky. The fact remains that they do dictate where we go in general – so it is important that the farmer has it the right way. other than this the news trickling abroad will play its charm.

The global sentiment as of now is confused to say the least. One market is a point up then the other is a point down. The news coming out is not particularly good and in any case I feel it has been adequately discounted already. Take it this way the good news in last few months has been adequately discounted and this recession is not going anywhere. to reach the kind of economic frenzy we saw in the last decade - will take a long long time. Europe started red – went green and ended confused. FTSE was 0.1% red, DAX 0.29% green and CAC 0.21% red. US started green and ended as confused as Europe. Dow was down 0.19%, Nasdaq down 0.07% and S&P green 0.23%. Asia opened green – Nikkei has since dived down now only 0.01% green and Strait Times holding on at 0.62% green.

As far as the charts are concerned – there is not good news there. We have started trailing the bottom of the Bollinger bands, Volumes are average, ADX is bearish, MACD is bearish, TRIX is looking down and RSI is bearish. Only hope for the short term is that Slow Stochastic is oversold and giving a bullish signal.

As far as the Pivot data is concerned….

R3 4391
R2 4343
R1 4295
Pivot 4219
S1 4171
S2 4095
S3 4047
Projected High Range 4257 to 4319
Projected Low Range 4215 to 4153
Fib Projected High 4300
Fib Projected Low 4109

Notice two things in the option pain – calls remain more than the puts and reversal of positions in put call ratio next month. If the puts remain more for next month then we may have some stabilisation of the downturn otherwise there is a long way to go on the downside.

Ideally I will not be in futures of any kind – will hold strangle/straddle till the time budget is out.

Best of luck everyone…