Update for 14 Sep 09…

This is the time when the confusion galore in everyone’s minds. There is just no clarity as to where and when the markets will move. On top of it all the technicals are not helpful, Fundamentals are on shaky ground and result is – what the heck and were the heck are we off to? More high in sight? maybe! How about lows? Maybe! The FIIs buy – DIIs sell – DIIs buy FIIs sell. I think that this will continue and the sell off if it comes will be big. So many rumours floating around. So much of data pointing nowhere and still we have to go along with our days and night dutifully.

Let me first begin with the Global cues – though they are touching new highs – they seem to be in doldrums like everyone else – taking each step forward with caution but moving ahead all the same. Take Asia for example – Nikkei was down 0.66%, Hang Seng up 0.44% and Strait Times down 0.04%. Europe had some bit of more clarity and they spent time comfortably in green. FTSE was up 0.48%, DAX up 0.52% and CAC up 0.78%. US was red but definitely off their lows – and almost recovering the losses of the day with DOW down 0.23%, Nasdaq down 0.15% and S&P down 0.14%. It is more like that they are standing still in a time wrap for some event to come – some trigger to push them somewhere.

As far as the Charts are concerned – The candles for the second day is close to a DOJI - “I say close because it has a body worth 10 odd points” This just displays the power play that is happening between the bulls and the bears and no one making a worthwhile headway. Mind you this is after the bulls ripped the upper limit and surged ahead – but seems to have again got caught up in a band. As far as the Bollinger bands are concerned the markets are not violating the upper bands and it seems that the upswing will not remain too forceful in the coming days. All the same – market remain to be in a bullish phase so far.  The ADX seems to be creeping in – it has reached 17 from about a low of 11. Now it remains to be seen what it supports – the bulls or the bears when it does breakout above 20. MACD remains bullish. RSI is bullish and Slow Stochastic are bearish with the indicator in overbought zone. TRIX is bullish. So far so good as far the indicators are concerned.

As far as the Options data is concerned the PCR stands (Nifty) as you would be seeing from the chart on to the left hand side the PCR is at 1.66 but the volumes seems to have dropped from 1.3 million to 1.18 million. In addition to this the Option pain points out the lowest pain in the level of 4700 Nifty. Are we heading towards this closing? I really do not know as half the month is still left waiting for a direction really. As of now the decline still seems difficult but then PCR can change if the big fish so desires.  The 4600 put now has the greatest open interest of 6.6 lacs, 4900 call 5.17 lacs, 4500 put 5.08 lacs and 4700 put 4.94 lacs, 500 call 4.3 lacs and 4000 put of 3.4 lacs. The range for the market should still be 4600 to 4900 with 4700 a support on the downside.

To sum it up I would put it across this way for the Monday markets – Global cues may remain tepid – may be because of consolidation or a correction. Technicals are bullish but getting overbought and Doji is yet to work out –so be careful. The options data says that we are not likely to fall easily but keep an eye on the PCR and the volumes – increase or drop – whatever. The picture of the PCR above is liked to the sire where you can track the PCR real time.

Ideal strategy is to remain long with a stoploss on closing below 4794, those short can keep a stoploss at closing above 4857. For the day remain long above 4806 and short below it. May you all make tons of money.