Sunday, September 20, 2009


I am sorry - but lately I have been busy and have got orders to move to a new station. I will have to say good bye to blogging in the near foreseeable future, so - though I am still not closing the blog but will not be able to update it.
It has been a great experience blogging here and I will add it in the end here - that in all the probability I have learned more blogging here than anything else.
Thanks for being such good friend, critics and supporters.


Monday, September 14, 2009

Update for 15 Sep 09…

image image Like I said yesterday – it is not that the confusion is there in our minds only – it is there everywhere and no one really knows where, how and when we are headed too. That we have to go somewhere is – but inevitable. What is probably happening is that the positions are taken with a hope that the markets will go somewhere (mostly on the bearish side) and when the markets do not do anywhere there is a rush to square off the positions with a fear for carrying positions overnight and the markets then return to the start point. That would be a fair assumption why we are not going anywhere. Top this with dismal FII and DII interest – we are back to the start really with nothing happening. And at the cost of a repetition – it is not confined to our markets. It is happening everywhere. Look at Asia, Europe – US anywhere – the markets just not decided after moving up so much – where to go to.

image Let us look at the global cues – Asia was all red and deep red (except us of course ;’-D  ) Nikkei was down 2.3%, Hang Seng was down 1.08% and Strait Times was down 1.54%. Moving on to Europe they too opened with deep cuts but then went on to recover (something like us) FTSE finally closed 0.15% up in green, DAX down 0.07% and CAC down 0.11%. US is facing major concerns on the US-China trade terms and opened lower but as of now – just short of the mid session is hovering around the unchanged line – Dow in red 0.16%, Nasdaq down 0.04% and S&P down 0.03%. The way the things stand – the markets can make a recovery also – so will have to review again tomorrow.

daily 14 Sep 09 As far as the technicals are concerned the candle was a red one – the entire day played out in a narrow zone only with a short covering helped attempt to recovery.The market momentum definitely seems to be tapering off on the charts. The volumes are low and the chances after today have brightened to visit middle Bollinger bands. TRIX is bullish and so is MACD and RSI. Slow Stochastic have come out of the overbought condition but are bearish as of now. All in all – nothing much is happening. ADX too seems bullish at the moment.


The options data is roaming around at the same place so I will not spend time to dwell upon it too much. The PCR is 1.81 and that is the expectations of the majority speaking that the market will fall – or let us put it this way that the markets should fall. The writers of Puts will not like that situation obviously so we can still wait out for a major fall to come our way.

All in all the trend so far remains bullish and for those long do not hold longs if the markets are likely to close below 4795 those in the bear camp who are short should not hold shorts if the markets are likely to close above 4859. For the day be long above 4807 and short below this level.

May you all make money. Good luck!


Sunday, September 13, 2009

Update for 14 Sep 09…

image This is the time when the confusion galore in everyone’s minds. There is just no clarity as to where and when the markets will move. On top of it all the technicals are not helpful, Fundamentals are on shaky ground and result is – what the heck and were the heck are we off to? More high in sight? maybe! How about lows? Maybe! The FIIs buy – DIIs sell – DIIs buy FIIs sell. I think that this will continue and the sell off if it comes will be big. So many rumours floating around. So much of data pointing nowhere and still we have to go along with our days and night dutifully.

Let me first begin with the Global cues – though they are touching new highs – they seem to be in doldrums like everyone else – taking each step forward with caution but moving ahead all the same. Take Asia for example – Nikkei was down 0.66%, Hang Seng up 0.44% and Strait Times down 0.04%. Europe had some bit of more clarity and they spent time comfortably in green. FTSE was up 0.48%, DAX up 0.52% and CAC up 0.78%. US was red but definitely off their lows – and almost recovering the losses of the day with DOW down 0.23%, Nasdaq down 0.15% and S&P down 0.14%. It is more like that they are standing still in a time wrap for some event to come – some trigger to push them somewhere.

Daily 11 Sep 09 As far as the Charts are concerned – The candles for the second day is close to a DOJI - “I say close because it has a body worth 10 odd points” This just displays the power play that is happening between the bulls and the bears and no one making a worthwhile headway. Mind you this is after the bulls ripped the upper limit and surged ahead – but seems to have again got caught up in a band. As far as the Bollinger bands are concerned the markets are not violating the upper bands and it seems that the upswing will not remain too forceful in the coming days. All the same – market remain to be in a bullish phase so far.  The ADX seems to be creeping in – it has reached 17 from about a low of 11. Now it remains to be seen what it supports – the bulls or the bears when it does breakout above 20. MACD remains bullish. RSI is bullish and Slow Stochastic are bearish with the indicator in overbought zone. TRIX is bullish. So far so good as far the indicators are concerned.

imageAs far as the Options data is concerned the PCR stands (Nifty) as you would be seeing from the chart on to the left hand side the PCR is at 1.66 but the volumes seems to have dropped from 1.3 million to 1.18 million. In addition to this the Option pain points out the lowest pain in the level of 4700 Nifty. Are we heading towards this closing? I really do not know as half the month is still left waiting for a direction really. As of now the decline still seems difficult but then PCR can change if the big fish so desires.  The 4600 put now has the greatest open interest of 6.6 lacs, 4900 call 5.17 lacs, 4500 put 5.08 lacs and 4700 put 4.94 lacs, 500 call 4.3 lacs and 4000 put of 3.4 lacs. The range for the market should still be 4600 to 4900 with 4700 a support on the downside.

To sum it up I would put it across this way for the Monday markets – Global cues may remain tepid – may be because of consolidation or a correction. Technicals are bullish but getting overbought and Doji is yet to work out –so be careful. The options data says that we are not likely to fall easily but keep an eye on the PCR and the volumes – increase or drop – whatever. The picture of the PCR above is liked to the sire where you can track the PCR real time.

Ideal strategy is to remain long with a stoploss on closing below 4794, those short can keep a stoploss at closing above 4857. For the day remain long above 4806 and short below it. May you all make tons of money.


Friday, September 11, 2009

Update for 11 Sep 09…

image It has been almost a week of late night flying and there was no update on that account. A good upswing that has been there and the roles seems to have been reversed with the FIIs now convinced and buying and DIIs saying that this run up is false and selling. The same story all over again. (Reminds me of ‘Love Aaj Kal – Eko hai kahani – bas badle zamanna’). It seems that both the categories just cannot remain in sync with each other. Anyway there was a clean breakout a few days back and we are on our way up with a stop here and a stop there. Infact this is what that is happening now – with every few points of downward journey the markets has people buying into it and that is so far good and has supported the markets from a free fall. Let us see where we are off to now.

Daily 09 Sep 09 The global cues from the Europe seem to be mixed – FTSE closed 0.33% in red – and that is after seeing US recovering and coming off the days lows. DAX closed .37% in green – well it spent most of the time in green only visiting red only twice during the session. CAC was down 0.05% in red. Well the US too started the day in red but then steadily climbed to green – never to look back closing the session at the highest with DOW up 0.84%, Nasdaq up 1.15% and S&P 1.04%. The US seems to have officially called off the recession it seems and the markets ended with handsome gains in the fifth strait session. The Asia has not taken the US cues so far and Nikkei has plunged 0.5% – showing some signs of uptick now trading at 0.15 in red, Strait Times is in green by half a percentage points.

On the charts – as I see it there was a Gravestone Doji and that may show some selling pressure for a few days ahead of us. Since the FIIs have been net buyers the selling would have then come from the unconvinced DIIs and retail. The volumes have been 104% of last 50 day average so on that account cannot say that we have been overpowered. Second thing that I notice is that we have not been able to violate the upper Bollinger band – we should have been trailing by violating the upper Bollinger band if this upswing was to continue with steam. There is smart support around the 4 EMA levels and 4 EMA is at 4690 exact – so watch out for this level. If we do go below this level then the lower logical level should be middle of Bollinger bands around 4650 and the real bad downturn can come only below this level. One can never really say that this will come or not as there are reasons for strong supports along the way that I will cover as I complete this writeup. Needless so say that buy was generated on the 315 on Sep 4th. The trend line support is at 4660 levels. So that doubles the effectiveness of support available at around this level. ADX has finally started rising and is up to 16 as of today and I will still wait for the crossover of 20 to see the trend and crossover of 40 for the trend to strengthen up. MACD is bullish though mildly. RSI is bullish at 64 points and trailing above the SMA (15) at 59. If RSI is to fall below around the level of 58/59  - it could indicate weakness otherwise the party will continue. Another problem is the Slow Stochastic that are overbought and has had a bearish crossover of %K line below %D line. The TRIX too signals a rally up so far.

Now coming to a very interesting part – Options data. imageSince I had some time yesterday I took time to study it and what shows can scare away the living daylight of bears. The PCR is at 1.66 and if you think with this kind of open interest in Puts the operators will allow the markets will spiral down – just forget it. Short of some country Nuking the other I do not see a reason for the supports on the downside to be broken. I am pasting the Nifty open interest table sorted from high to low so you can have a look yourself. Put call 09 Sep 09Only relief for the bears is that 4700 levels open interest is figuring at the fourth level and we may make an attempt to approach (I say again Approach it) but to violate it – just seems too far as of now. Levels of 4600 and 4500 are just too far and supports on account of options only too strong for a meaningful downside. On the upside the level of 4900 will be a stiff level to crack. So as far as the options data is concerned – we can be range bound between 4700 and 4900 levels.

I will summarise – as far as the global cues are concerned the US is doing great but it has failed to inspire the rest of the world in real terms. The downward infection now may travel from the rest of the world to US and we may see US sobering down at these or a little higher levels. The global cues for us remain mixed with a bit of weakness. The technicals are bullish but becoming stretched. Options should keep the markets range bound giving stiff resistance for the markets to break down meaningfully. So consolidation in this band might happen and levels will be broken on the upside or lower side next month. Ideal strategy might be to dilute longs at higher levels (talking of nifty positions) and buy on dips. For those holding longs do not hold if likely to close below 4791, for those who took shorts do not hold shorts if likely to close above 4852. For the day buy if above 4790 and sell below this level.

Best of luck and may all of you make money and tons of it.


Monday, September 7, 2009

Update for 07 Sep 09…

image When I talked about the resilience of the markets in my last post I had frankly not expected the kind of upswing from the markets that it really showed. That was a fabulous turnaround that took the markets to the close it did. now like we have had multiple tests of the highs earlier – we have tested the lows also. The range is small and the breakout will happen whenever it has to. The high is at 4735 and low at 4576. There should ideally be another attempt at breaking the high once again and I am quite certain that the high will be broken – how much conviction that breakout has will remain to be seen. Look at the FII and DII data – this selling by FIIs will remain a concern whether we like it or not.

daily 04 Sep 09 The global cues were good and that should start the week on a good note. The Asia had ended the week with the Nikkei down in red 0.27%, Hang Seng up 2.82% and Strait Times up 0.94%. Europe performed better than Asia and it started in green and ended in green higher than the opening point – never visiting the red area. FTSE ended up 1.15%, DAX up 1.57% and CAC up 1.27%. US on the other hand started the day flat but went on to comfortable green by mid session and remained there only for the rest of the time – ending – Dow up 1.03%, Nasdaq up 1.79% and S&P up 1.31%. Nikkei has started the day today almost a percent up. Mind you today being Labour day the US markets will remain closed and that part of the cues will be missing so incorporate this factor in your assessment of the markets.

On the charts the markets bounced once again from the middle of the Bollinger bands not really bothering to violate the middle of the bands to test the lower band. It also coincided with the support as you would be seeing on the chart on the left. Now to this end we are very close to test the upper Bollinger Band at 4779. The range too has become so constrictive that a breakout is just a matter of time and I would still not bet on the direction of the breakout. Notice two things on the charts – the green ticks do not have relatively more volumes than the red candles. The red candles are with a little bit more volumes than green candles. Now that is the reason I say that it is difficult to say who is running out of steam. Not only that it may be prudent to point out the FII and DII data once again.The TRIX is flat with perhaps a little positive bias. imageAs far as the MACD goes the lines are overlapping each other with hardly any divergence. RSI is at 57.76 and the RSI simple moving average for 15 days is also above 50 at 54.6 – this has two things – the moving average is above the 50 point and the RSI is trailing above the SMA. As always my concern is the ADX – it is at 11 – It will surely move shortly above the 20 marker and that mind you will definitely give out the trend the markets will take in near future. put call 04 Sep 09So what I am saying is that do not read into the 100 odd points upswing – it is most likely to be temporary – one of those days run up. As far as the Slow Stochastic are concerned they have turned bullish by a cat’s whisker – so I will read it neutral. MACD is still bearish. So here we are – with nothing to read really in the tea cup of technicals.

As far as the options data is concerned the PCR is at 1.23 – resisting the markets from going into a free fall. Options pain says that 4600 is the level and till that moves the markets are signalling a hovering around this point. The greatest open interest is at 4600 Put now with 45.93 lac, 4500 put with 44.41 lac open interest, 4800 call with open interest at 36.19 lac (next bus stop around 4800 levels?) 4300 put at 33.78 lac and 4000 put with 33.14 lac open interest. So that does give us some sense as to where we are heading for.

I will summarise this in the following manner, Global cues are good. Our Charts are mixed with volumes and the ADX not playing up still. The Options data point out towards to some more upswing before we stop. All in all the ideal strategy would be to remain long. The stoploss for longs would be closing below the 4579 level and if holding shorts then keep stoploss of close above 4665 for the day. For today go long above 4644 and short below it. I wish all of you luck for today’s trading.


Friday, September 4, 2009

Update for 04 Sep 09…

imageimageWe must say hats off to the Indian markets resilience.   Under the same circumstances some time back we may have fallen like there has been no tomorrow. The Global markets are not really playing up but still we are holding on to levels that cannot be called bad really. There has been other things one has to keep in mind like the markets have not broken above 4700 levels really and that its future depends upon convincingly breaking above and sustaining that level. You can take it 4725 – 4750 level or so – it depends how you read the charts and what methodology is used. If we somehow manage to see through these two months – Sep and Oct then I feel there is some good times in store for us. Actually there was a lot of enthusiasm in some quarters that was already seeing markets at 5000 levels. There has been infact so much Put writing happening – just the signal that the markets are optimistic and that may be the soft underbelly. More on it after a moment.

The Global cues are mixed – doing the tango as I say usually. Asia had Nikkei down 0.64%, Hang Seng up 1.23% and Strait Times up 1.11%. Europe ended in red inspite of keeping flat for the majority of the session. FTSE ended down 0.43%, Dax was down 0.35% and CAC ended 0.55% in red. Europe fell on US concerns and US that has had four days of slide found some hope and pushed its way up. The US markets – past the mid session now are crawling to a little higher levels. Dow at the moment is at 0.32% in green, Nasdaq 0.47% in green and S&P 0.42% in green. The US markets too are fighting for foothold around very important support and resistance level. Nasdaq at 2000, S&P at 1000 levels. The chances are bright that the US markets will end up green – max about a percent or so.

daily 03 Sep 09 As far as the technicals are concerned – today has been the fourth red tick we have seen in the past as many days. The technicals have slowly and steadily turned bearish but some key spots are yet to be conquered by the bears – though they do seem to be in a winning streak. We are in the middle of the Bollinger bands and the 15 EMA still is 5 points below the 3 EMA – meaning that classically the sell signal has till not been generated.  MACD is just about to generate a negative divergence – but bullish still. Slow Stochastic the markets are bearish and fast moving to the oversold zone. %K is already in oversold zone and %D line will soon follow it there. TRIX is neutral – or seems like so. RSI still is bullish and has not generated the 50 crossover from top to bottom sell signal. The ADX has dropped even further down to 11 now.

Option Pain 03 Sep 09 As far as the Options data is concerned – whatever support that we are finding is due to the put writing at every 100 points in Nifty. But what is happening is that now the call writing has also started in the same earnest so the Put call ratio is 1.23. My sense is that If we go further down then the call writing will gather more  strength of momentum and eventually our recovering will become difficult. Ofcourse I am assuming that call writing will start at a faster rate it is being done now. The open interest at the various levels is 46.8 lacs put 4600, 44.85 lacs at call 4700, 41 lacs at put 4500, 38 and 36 lacs at calls 4900 and 4800 respectively. If we go below the 4500 mark then the next resistance to fall will come at 4300 nifty levels.. Just for info the call writing in Reliance is 24 lacs plus calls and just 7 lacs something puts and you think that reliance will recover?

Put call 03 Sep 09 So to sum it up – Global cues are positive a bit – the Asian markets will definitely open green and then where they go is anybody’s guess. Mine is that they go red. FIIs continuous selling will keep our markets under pressure for the time being. Charts are either bearish or turning bearish so they will oppose bulls even if they do not support bears. Option data is as of now resisting the markets to fall but may resist the markets recovering if the call build up happens as we creep lower. So a massive selloff or buy out is not likely – we might be expected to move in a range with a closing either side of the flat line.


Wednesday, September 2, 2009


Please blame my schedule for not updating -- please bear with me for another day...