Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Just when the doom was around the corner.......

Just when I was sure in hell that the worst will be upon us - the markets rebounded with vigour. Where did they get their 'josh' from? I don't know neither do I care - all I know that this hope would have got many back from the bring of death. Was there something that was unknown? Afterall I saw the same channels that you do and there was fear - fear and fear all around us. Then what happened? If everyone was fearful then who bought into our rally? And is this rally for real? How long will it last? Are the bears done and over? Will the companies that are wholly dependant on US and Europe survive whatever is happening there? Infosys? Suzlon? anyone out there to answer my doubts?

Well the Asia was mixed with Nikkei down 4.12%, Hang Seng 0.76% in green. Europe started out red and ended unquestionably green. FTSe up 2.44%, Dax up 0.4% and Cac up 1.99%. US opened green and they recovered some of the all time high loses they had yesterday. The markets are up green. Dow up 2.6%, Nasdaq up 3.12% and S&P up 3.32%. They have still not reached mid session and there is a long day ahead of them. And on their day depends our times. Atleast they did till day before - and suddenly we were on our own showing our thumb to all.

As far as the candles are concerned - the pattern is "Harami" Harami means 'pregnant' and the long candle yesterday was the mother and the small white candle today its fetus or its baby. It is said that harami is usually not as much of a reversal pattern as hammer, hanging man or engulfing pattern but neverthless.... It is our hope. The bollinger bands are still expanding and the candles including today's candle is still hugging the lower band. The volumes were significantly higher. MACD has not started looking up yet. the divergence is the same as yesterday. Red line trails below the blue line. Mass Index is bad the reversal line is now in the critical band and we are about to get into a bearish reversal. RSI looked up but remains to be bearish. TRIX is still looking down. on Slow Stochastic there is another sign of hope as the red line has sharply moved - as if it wanted to go up and ride the blue line today itself. It is still trailing below the blue line.

I will take no second guesses. Markets will do what they intend to - so will wait for what happens to US tonight and where asia opens for guidance.

My question remains to all those who and make an attempt to answer. US is going down - whom all will they take along with them?

For those who are technically inclined: -

R3 4218
R2 4119
R1 4020
Pivot 3867
S1 3768
S2 3615
S3 3516

Projected high range 3944 to 4069
Projected low range 3863 to 3737
Fib projected high 4035
Fib projected low 3646

Take your picks


My report for today is below this post -- this is just the skeleton hanging above

I have cut paste the news from Yahoo. Might as well as read it - there is nothing that one would be able to do today as it is.

House rejects $700B bailout in stunning defeat, driving stocks down; Treasury vows more work

WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a vote that shook the government, Wall Street and markets around the world, the House on Monday defeated a $700 billion emergency rescue for the nation's financial system, leaving both parties' lawmakers and the Bush administration scrambling to pick up the pieces. Dismayed investors sent the Dow Jones industrials plunging nearly 800 points, the most ever for a single day.

"We need to put something back together that works," a grim-faced Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said after he and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke joined in an emergency strategy session at the White House. On Capitol Hill, Democratic leaders said the House would reconvene Thursday, leaving open the possibility that it could salvage a reworked version.

All sides agreed the effort to bolster beleaguered financial markets, potentially the biggest government intervention since the Great Depression, could not be abandoned.

But in a remarkable display on Monday, a majority of House members slapped aside the best version their leaders and the administration had been able to come up with, bucking presidential speeches, pleading visits from Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and urgent warnings that the economy could nosedive without the legislation.

In the face of thousands of phone calls and e-mails fiercely opposing the measure, many lawmakers were not willing to take the political risk of voting for it just five weeks before the elections.

The bill went down, 228-205.

The House Web site was overwhelmed as millions of people sought information about the measure through the day.

The legislation the administration promoted would have allowed the government to buy bad mortgages and other sour assets held by troubled banks and other financial institutions. Getting those debts off their books should bolster those companies' balance sheets, making them more inclined to lend and ease one of the biggest choke points in a national credit crisis. If the plan worked, the thinking went, it would help lift a major weight off the national economy, which is already sputtering.

Hoping to pick up enough GOP votes for the next try, Republicans floated several ideas. One would double the $100,000 ceiling on federal deposit insurance. Another would end rules that require companies to devalue assets on their books to reflect the price they could get in the market.

In the meantime, Paulson said he would work with other regulators "to use all the tools available to protect our financial system and our economy."

"Our tool kit is substantial but insufficient," he said, indicating the government intended to continue piecemeal fixes while pressing Congress for broader action.

Stocks started plummeting on Wall Street even before Monday's vote was over, as traders watched the rescue measure going down on television. Meanwhile, lawmakers were watching them back.

As a digital screen in the House chamber recorded a cascade of "no" votes against the bailout, Democratic Rep. Joe Crowley of New York shouted news of the falling Dow Jones industrials. "Six hundred points!" he yelled, jabbing his thumb downward.

The final stock carnage was 777 points, far surpassing the 684-point drop on the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

In the House, "no" votes came from both the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisle. More than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill. Several Democrats in close election fights waited until the last moment, then went against the bill as it became clear the vast majority of Republicans were opposing it.

Thirteen of the 19 most vulnerable Republicans and Democrats in an Associated Press analysis voted against the bill despite the pleas from President Bush and their party leaders to pass it.

In all, 65 Republicans joined 140 Democrats in voting "yes," while 133 Republicans and 95 Democrats voted "no."

The overriding question was what to do next.

"The legislation may have failed; the crisis is still with us," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in a news conference after the defeat. "What happened today cannot stand."

Republican leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said he and other Republicans were pained to vote for such measure, but he agreed that in light of the potential consequences for the economy and all Americans, "I think that we need to renew our efforts to find a solution that Congress can support."

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said there was scant time to reopen legislation that was the product of hard-fought bipartisan negotiations.

"What happened today was not a failure of a bill, it was a failure of will," said Dodd, the Banking Committee chairman. "Our hope is that cooler heads will prevail, people will think about what they did today and recognize that this is not just scare tactics -- it's reality."

A brutal round of partisan finger-pointing followed the vote.

Republicans blamed Pelosi's scathing speech near the close of the debate -- which assailed Bush's economic policies and a "right-wing ideology of anything goes, no supervision, no discipline, no regulation" of financial markets -- for the defeat. It was not much different from her usual tough words against the president and his party.

"We could have gotten there today had it not been for the partisan speech that the speaker gave on the floor of the House," Boehner said.

Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., the whip, estimated that Pelosi's speech changed the minds of a dozen Republicans who might otherwise have supported the plan.

That amounted to an appalling accusation by Republicans against Republicans, said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the Financial Services Committee: "Because somebody hurt their feelings, they decide to punish the country."

More than a repudiation of Democrats, Frank said, Republicans' refusal to vote for the bailout was a rejection of their own president.

The two men campaigning to replace Bush watched the situation closely -- from afar -- and demanded action.

In Iowa, Republican John McCain said his rival Barack Obama and congressional Democrats "infused unnecessary partisanship into the process. Now is not the time to fix the blame; it's time to fix the problem."

Obama said, "Democrats, Republicans, step up to the plate, get it done."

Lawmakers were under extraordinary pressure from powerful outside groups, which gave notice they considered the legislation a "key vote" -- one they would consider when rating members of Congress.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said opponents of the bailout would pay for their stance.

"Make no mistake: When the aftermath of congressional inaction becomes clear, Americans will not tolerate those who stood by and let the calamity happen," said R. Bruce Josten, the Chamber's top lobbyist, in a letter to members.

The conservative Club for Growth made a similar threat to supporters of the bailout.

"We're all worried about losing our jobs," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., declared in an impassioned speech in support of the bill before the vote. "Most of us say, 'I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it -- not me.'"

"We're in this moment, and if we fail to do the right thing, Heaven help us," he said.

If Congress doesn't come around on a bailout, more pressure would fall on the Federal Reserve.

The Fed, which has been providing billions in short-term loans to squeezed banks to help them overcome credit stresses, could keep expanding those loans to encourage lending. And, it could keep working with other central banks to inject billions into financial markets overseas.

It also has the power to expand emergency lending to other types of companies and even to individuals if they are unable to secure adequate credit.


Monday, September 29, 2008

Bottomless pit?..... Or is there a bottom down there?

0530hrs: Help Fire in the Hold, Dow down 6.98%, Nasdaq down 9.14% and S&P down 8.79% as the house rejects the 700Billion bailout plan that left Bush administration scrambling.

2158 hrs: hey guys and gals -- Oil down to 99$ - does anyone here cares?

What a times we are going through - this will remain in our memory for a long times to come. There are no technicals. There is no reasoning - just as (I must add) there was no logic when we were touching one high after the another and all were talking about touching 23,000! The fact is that the additional conditions that have been politically imposed on the Bailout package have not been taken well. There is a limit actually to demands personally speaking - first you mess up with billions of dollars (if not Trillions) - then expect the govt to bail you out - and that to by giving a free hands. Mind you - I am sure that if it had been given without any conditions attatched - still the chances of this market fall were as much as we are seeing now.

Anyway the fact remains that Nikkei dropped 1.26%, Hang Seng 4.29% and Strait Times 2.08%. (I am sure that even though I have not written red in capital letter - it is understood). Europe down in dumps - FTSE about to close and trailing at 4.03% down, Dax down 3.55% and Cac down 3.74%. There is no tick that is even taking a chance of showing green. Dow was all magic. It was kissing 300 points lower and seeing the condition - there seems to be no let down on the red pressure and the markets as of now are just not looking up at all. Want to look at the figures to make your legs weaker - well here we go - take support of your wife/husban/girlfriend. Dow is down 2.53% red and Nasdaq down 3.82% and S&P 3.5% down in red. Mind you the mid session is yet to start and anything can happen as the Bailout vote is yet to be casted. After yo have seen what could have influenced us during the opening / closing and opening tomorrow - let us see our figures. BSE down 506 points or 3.87%, Nifty down 135 points that is 3.39% down. The markets went down - down and down with a very feeble attempt of recovery. May be the shorts being covered and not taken to the next trading day. Noticed Nifty any chance? It broke the 52 week bottom before recovering. The lowest trading today was at 3777.3 and 52 week low was at 3790.2. Are we now trying to go lower than the half of our highest of last 52 Week? Also did you notice that Nifty has breached three supports as given out yesterday by me. Okay the fresh Nifty levels projections are againg given in the end.

Okay - I will talk candles now. the pattern is the one that neither me nor anyone else would normally like to see other than when you are sitting on tons of shorts. It is the "Three Crow Pattern" - infact so much so that it seems perfect out of the copy text book. This alone is strong indicator enough that bad times are upon us. today again we have breached the lower end of the Bollinger bands and the candles are firmly hugging the lower line - needless to say but the bands are continuing to expand giving wide berth to more downside. The volumes on nifty were higher. MACD negative divergence is increasing. Red line at this rate does not have a chance to beat Blue line. Mass Index showed signs to easing out yesterday but today it has again swung up and is going to the danger zone. TRIX is purely negative - looking down. RSI is bearish and Slow Stochastic red line is way below the blue line. So here we are - as per my sense - there is not even a single indication that gives us hope. All the same I am sure that the markets reaction to selective news can be phenomenal. Now all we have to do is just to wait for some good news to fall from the heavens in our laps.

The Nifty Pivot points calculations are as under:-

R3 4217.8
R2 4095.2
R1 3972.6
Pivot 3874.95
S1 3752.35
S2 3654.7
S3 3532.1

Tomorrow's projections
Projected High Range 3923.78 - 4033.9
Projected low Range 3851.08
Fib Projected high 4057.46
Fib Projected low 3717.39

Will try to update tomorrow - but have another hectic day tomorrow.


Saturday, September 27, 2008

I am guilty.....

0930 hrs: There is no respite in the Asian markets even though they opened on the positive note. All Asian markets are in the red and the fall is likely to continue - that is because the rescue package has not been taken well by the markets. Not too much hope in near future.

0622hrs: Nikkei opened flat and immediately climbed 1% up. Strait times too opens 1% green - Cheers

PS: These are some kick-ass posts you coming up with!
take care buddy, may you trust your judgment but not your impulse.

This was a comment from Uma - with whom I have been interacting for some time now. The moment I got this comment from her on my last post - I had a feeling of doom - and that was before the markets opened in Asia. I had to take it with a pinch of salt and as I went to the depth of what was said by her - I had to gulp my pride and sit up. She was totaly right - in comming this distance in blogging for last few months - I became what I was ought not to be. I was not as unbiased as I claimed to be and somehow got into story writing - than the technical talk at hand - to give unbiased view - technically about the markets. The last two days have taught me a lesson where I made unreasonable assumptions and was proved wrong by the technicals. It took the above comment from Uma to wake me up from my fantasy land to get me back on track. I thank Uma and I hope I once again start out on a better track.

I appologise to all who suffered because of me in the past few days. Okay here I go again - with restraint of course. The Nuclear deal has come through and there is jubilation in US. Will we also celebrate? We should - but beyond that - don't know. Asia was negative a d remained so - perhaps going down and under a bit more - Nikkei closed 0.84% down, Hang Seng was 1.33% down and Strait Times 1.34% in red. Europe opened red and never looked up closing at the same level it opened. FTSE was 2.09% in red, Dax was 1.77% down and Cac was 1.5% in red. Dow opened where it was supposed to - in red. As the news of the deal of bail out working out started doing rounds - there were hopes once again and the markets recovered. The Dow ened 1.1% in green, Nasdaq ended only 0.15% in red and S&P closed 0.32% in green. The indexes had virtually eaten up the loses of the day - except for Nasdaq. And finally the reason for all this trouble remains but the BailOut deal seems to be on the table with Bush administration and the Congressional leaders reaching a tentative deal on early Sunday.

On the charts the candle was large and black. we closed at below what I considered a support at the 4000 levels. next level that we should drop to is likely to be 3800 level if the drop is not arrested. If there is a turnaround then we should/could end up above 4100. The candles are again to the lower end of Bollinger bands and the bollinger bands are still widening. The 5 EMA is trailing well below the 20 EMA line. The drop mind you was on less volumes. MACD divergence has again started t o increase - negative that is. Red line continues to be below the blue line. Not good. Mass Index has turned back below the band that indicates change of trend so the hope is there that we still might not go into the bearish run for mid term. RSI however is way bearish and so is Slow Stochastic - red line trails below the blue line and shows no sign of reversing. TRIX is flat to negative.

So now here we are with the facts and facts alone. Will this do? Shucks -- how can I suppress what I want to say -- But I will restraint my feelings till I can no longer hold it in my stomach.

Nifty Projections

R3 4250.75
R2 4162.25
R1 4073.75
Pivot 4022.05
S1 3933.55
S2 3881.85
S3 3793.35

Fib Projected range high 4148.68
Fib Projected Low 3932.22
Projected High Range 4047.9 to 4118
Projected Low Range 4103.1 to 4033

Will update as the Asian markets open.


Thursday, September 25, 2008

Bear Hunters rejoice ..... You your time has come

0800hrs: A Republican revolt stalled urgent efforts to lash together a national economic rescue plan Thursday, a chaotic turnaround on a day that had seemed headed for a success that President Bush, both political parties and their presidential candidates could celebrate at an extraordinary White House meeting. Asia has opened and is trading red. The second news that will be cheered by the bears is that there is no sign of the Indo-US nuclear deal as the congressional nod is still eluding. - So that is what life is all about - bulls and bear surprises. With all indicators negative and the bad news helping bears - we will have a ball of a time (read more downside)

2300hrs: I had expected that today we will see a run-up in the stocks. I really cannot justify why I had that feeling. But on the contrary markets ended with almost 50 point loss on the nifty. It has been too long since the markets have remained suppressed -- a new rollover month should give us new opportunities if you remain to the right side of markets. The Asia traded red and closed red. Actually there was nothing better expected out of the situation we were in. There are spokes within the US who are trying to stop the bailout deal. I am the other hand was absolutely certain that it is just a matter of time that the step will be taken and the bailout will will be made to work. US is not the kind of nation that will take a problem of this magnitude staring in its face lying down. if that be so then a solution had to be found, and at least an attempt be given for it to work. At the moment they do not lack the resources to try solving this great puzzle they have been pondering about since fairly long now. The second reason I had was that the stocks of now remained subdued a very long and we do not really require any reason to bounce back with a vengeance for about 100 to 200 points on nifty.

Nikkei closed 0.9% in red, Hang Seng opened in green and remain green for more than half the session finally giving up all its gains during the end to end 0.15% in red. Straits Times opened in red and remained there throughout the session making a feeble attempt to go close to the flat line -- failed -- and closed in red 1.35%. The Europe opened flat -- as if trying to buy time to decide which side of the line to go. It remained along the flat line upto more than half the session. Finally as the news of US opening in Green started pouring in -- the Europe recovered and closed well into the green. FTSE closed 1.99% in Green, Dax closed 1.99% in Green and CAC closed 2.73% in Green. Seeing this my heart was singing with joy. I quickly switched over to see where the US was heading too. what I saw was a green opening -- not very strong but the stocks thereafter climbing towards more than 2% of gains during midsession. I would pray that they end the session strong. As of now Dow is 2.19% in green, NASDAQ is 2.52% in green and S&P 500 is 2.88% up. It is as if all the indices are trying to outdo each other. and all this mind you is happening as the lawmakers are moving closer to hammering out a deal aimed at reviving the crippled financial system. If the deal works out -- it would ensure a good run in the immediate future. As far as mid-term and long-term horizon goes -- it will still take some time before Technical Indicators turn bullish. As of now they remain bearish.

On the charts the black candle that we had today was one of those that I've got used to seeing almost every second day. A bearish candle. But the candle somehow does not show any strength has a bear. Neither does it convey any trend or change of trend in the near future. So if we to run up it will be based news driven. The Bollinger bands are wide, and signal the continuation of the downtrend that started on September 9. However at the moment the candles are somewhere in the middle of the Bollinger bands that is they are not excessively along with the bearish lower bottom. The 5 EMA line continues to be below the 20 EMA line. The volumes were higher on the nifty. Maybe because of the expiry of September futures. MACD indicator is where it was yesterday, the red and blue line virtually running parallel to each other. The Red Line continues to be below the blue line. The mass index is now entering the zone which is not good at all. If the reversal has to come it will come in the next few days. The RSI remains to be bearish. The TRIX is looking down but like yesterday not at the same gradient. It is flattish. Slow Stochastic also is moving nose down, with the Red Line below the blue line and turning towards 50 marker. so like I said earlier if the markets to be green tomorrow it will not be on the shoulders of technicals. It will be purely news or event driven.

Best of luck to everyone and I hope against hope that we all are on the winning side.


Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bear Bear -- where are you?

0700 hrs: President Bush said to the nation warning Americans and lawmakers reluctant to pass a historic financial rescue plan that failing to act fast risks wiping out retirement savings, rising foreclosures, lost jobs, closed business and "a long and painful recession." Strait Times also opens 1.12% lower.

0600 hrs: I can understand - after such a hectic times - there has to be a period when they sit aside and watch the destruction they have done to the valuations - like making me poor by 1/6 th of what I started the month with. I can sense their satisfaction. Comes naturally when destruction is the way of life. But for some time - why do I sense a sh*tty times is on the cards for them? Ahh - I forgot - that is to be my guarded secret - just being funny.

So today we did not do particularly bad - did we? we wiped out almost two days of bear effort and that to on what? Just because PM is in US? Warren bought a few shares? Give me a break - but then this is what the stock markets are all about. Ek ank me dukh ke ansu - ek ankh me khushi ke ansu. (tears of sorrow in one eye and of happiness in the other). We are living as bulls one day and bear the other. There is too much happening that I feel could swing the markets. I will try to put all that across.
Firstly - ofcourse is that our PM is in US and the happy ending and "they lived happily ever after" ending to the Nuclear deal is just a few days away. He has made his mark in our history undeniably.
Second - Tata's are out of Singur - a black day in the history of West Bengal (not that they have a particularly bright economic history) - well in long run the absence of red flags in Nano production might do them (read tata) good - What the heck was Tata thinking when he took the decision?
Thirdly - the sky rocket move of Crude has sobered down. It is now at 106.24 some dollars.
The Bail out plan of US govt has been taken with extreme caution but Warren Buffett has bought quite a bit of stocks. 5 Billion Dollars worth. I will not like to go with the cautious US public but with Warren - a personal choice really. Investors appeared unfazed by a larger-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes in August; their focus remained on the bailout. The National Association of Realtors said sales fell by 2.2 percent; sales had been expected to fall by 1.6 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR. The number of unsold homes on the market dropped by 7 percent from a record set in July. It marked the steepest drop in inventory since December 2006.

Now the world markets. Asia ended in green Europe red and US mixed. Nikkei - up .20%, Hang Seng up .47% and Strait Times up 0.04%. FTSE 0.79% red, Dax 0.26% red and CAC 0.61% down. Dow at the moment is trading at 0.08% in red, Nasdaq 0.76% in green and S&P 0.14% in red. It seems as though there is a bright chance that US enters the green territory and ends green. That might just ensure that towards the end of this session of derivatives rollover is good and we continue the winning streak.

On the charts the candle was a small whit candle. It could have been a bearish engulfing candle under normal circumstances - but since it has appeared after no particular trend - it does not have strength to indicate anything particular. The bulls have made another attempt to keep in the middle of the Bollinger bands and have not been very successful as they have slipped down - a wee bit lower. 5 EMA line still trails below the 20 EMA line. The volumes were a little higer than when we have been making black candles. The MACD divergence has further reduced and we may have a bullish crossover. The Mass Index is above 26 and can reach out and indicate a bearish trend in days to come - ending the small - hopeful bullish run we had. RSI looks up - but to what end remains to be seen. TRIX is flatish. On the slow stochastive the red line has gone below the blue line and I hope that it reverses its trend today - or we have a bearish spell again.

So inspite of all the bearish indicators we may have an highly volatile session as US closed flat after being into green from mid session onwards. Bush is scheduled to address the nation shortly on the bailout amid wrangling in congress over the bailout deal. It will have a profound effect on the markets today. Asia meanwhile has opened - Nikkei now is 2% down. Not a good beginning. Let us wait as to how we fare.


Give me a break FIIs - I do not have anything more left to donate....

I spent hours trying to formulate wonderful portfolio only to realise that I do not know what to do with it now. Why am I in such a peril situation. It was because I wanted to be the crowd. I wanted to buy because I saw anyone who invested got quick money. My expectation as against 9% in a bank in a year rose to 200% in a month. I don't know how and when to invest. I do not know how and when to get out of the markets. Neither I know nor I care because I always had a net inflow. When I started out with a portfolio - I took Large cap names in the industry. I had reliance at 100/-, L&T, Infosys.... you name it. Then suddenly I thought that I could be an investment banker or a portfolio manager - after all my money was growing. Then suddenly I looked around and saw that people were making more money in mid cap stocks. I disposed off my large cap stocks and shifted to mid cap. Then I wanted to lead the race by investing in small cap to catch the winners. My investment in large cap was just for stability and fell to 10% against the advise of 85%. -- Then one day it happened. The market took a hit and all stumbled... I was a disbeliever. After all who could beat me in stocks? - I made money. I had the midas touch. The penny stocks (read small cap) became worthless. I pooled in more money and bought the same junk stock I held - Averaging It I told others. The market fell more - I put in more money. It fell even more - I contemplated that this is the bottom - these so called learned do not know what they are saying on the idiot box. I borrowed money and put it in markets to Average my investments (read junk stocks). The markets are not looking up - Oh my GOD I will loose it all. I am panicking but still holding on to the junk I have (I want to be a millionare still). The markets are not recovering - I walk up to the highest building and want to look down - I wish I could fly.

What I have written above is what I am sure would have happened with a vast majority of people because they were wrong in taking markets for granted. They refused to see reality. The mistakes?
I am too good.
Shifted to mid cap.
Shifted to small cap.
Shifted to penny stocks.
Do not have an entry policy.
Do not have an exit policy.
My Stock advisor is my neighbour.
I invested what ever I had when I thought the market was at its bottom.
I was the crowd.

Today You have time to make a new beginning. You have time to study, prepare and make amends. That is if you are ready to learn to be the leader and not the crowd. This market may remain here for a few months, a few years and wait for you to jump aboard. Be a smart investor. Invest small but at these levels rather than where you did last time. buy Large cap companies - it is a misnomer that since a stock is at 20 and I can buy 100 - I will get better returns. 10 percent of both the stock will remain same and whenever the stocks revive - they will start from large cap. I will say small amounts. You will find the money grow. Like I was explained by Jaggu yesterday night - the don't mix economy with the crisis. It may slow us down - but we will not drown. Invest the money you do not require next month for buying that car you wanted. Do not borrow and invest. Invest with a Term horizon. that term can be medium or long but not a month (to double the money - marry your daughter and save for your honeymoon trip)

Okay once again I am sitting waiting for my sortie and it is 0241 at night now. The world markets upto US have closed and nothing good has emerged. Asia ended down with Hang Seng down 3.87% and Strait Times down 2.66%. Europe closed, FTSE 1.91% red, Dax 0.64% down and CAC 1.98% down. The problem with the Europe is that it is neither US nor Asia. It tries to show that this developed part of the world is independant. But has to look to US and snub asia to find support. Basically it is in middle ground. US was green till the mid session. then it dived red as there was apprehension of the bail out working out and the urgency in US lawmakers. The markets tried to recover but dived in red again closing well in red. Dow was down 1.47%, Nasdaq down 1.18% and S&P down 1.56%. This is about to ensure a red opening - unless the Asia now is fedup of the bad news from US on daily basis. Will have to wait and that is all.

The candle today on the charts was a black one but let me tell you that last two days of black candles have really not been able to write off the advance we made on monday. SO do not loose heart. The bollinger bands are widening still so the down turn might continue for some time. 5 EMA still is below the 20 EMA. volumes were lesser than yesterday. the MACD divergence has actually reduced inspite of the black candle but the red line continues to be below blue line. Mass index continues to look up RSI look down - both are bad signals. TRIX that was steeply down is now flatishly down - whatever that would imply. On the slow stochastics the red line continues to be above the blue line and the red line has touched the 80 marker. There is an divergence in the Slow Stochastics and our markets. This may work in our favour.

You want to know what will happen today when the markets open? Well I do not know. The markets are not behaving rationally and there are no simple answers. Events that are of importance are the Nuc deal that is likely to see the sunlight in US congress - infact our PM is there in anticipation. The bail out of its financial institutes will come through one way or the other. And the crude is at 107 $ - but I feel it should cool down again. (emphasise - I feel)

Best of luck and play safe. ;-)


Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Watch out..... Oil......

As we wait for the bail out to work in US the oil has touched the roof once again by jumping phenomenal 25$. The reason given is that the "Oil prices have shot up in view of the US government's bailout anxiety and a weak dollar. 25$ jump on anxiety? I thought in past 16 years of keeping in touch with the markets I had seen it all. With the crude jumping to these heights - you would actually be a fool to expect that we will not hit the lower cct on our exchange one of these days. Why do I have a feeling that there are people who knew about it. I was told by someone about the date also and there -- boom -- it does it on the specified day. Anyway there is really nothing anyone can do about it expect to wait and see. Targets on Nifty and Sensex -- don't you dare ask me - the unknown benificiary of the advance news about the jump in crude probably kept this info to himself.

I am not a joker anymore in writing this blog - I am a bloody Ass trying to pin the markets. But you know what don't get it wrong - I do not give up and will continue doing what I feel like doing and this blog will survive provided I have time to update it. Well to the summary now. The Asia closed mixed with both the red and green colours - Nikkei up 1.42%, Hange Seng up 1.58% and Strait Times down 0.58%. We had Sensex closing at zero line (0) and nift ywas down by 22.2 points (0.52%). The world markets too are in dumps With Europe FTSE closing 1.41% down, Dax down by 1.32% and CAC down by 2.34%. US is a story by itself by being at the moment on an average 3.5% down. Dow down 3.28%, Nasdaq dwon 3.94% and S&P down 3.84%. The main reason being quoted is the surge of the Oil by 25$ - crazy is the word.

On the Candles we have not done well - infact if at all a reversal to two days of upswing might be on the cards. The black candle was not backed by volumes though. So here we stall in the middle of the bollinger Bands once again with all the possibility to go down. The 5 EMA line remains below 20 EMA line. The negative divergence on MACD remaining and giving negative indications. RSI turns bearish, Mass Index is above 26 and fast climbing into the reversal zone - if it does not turn back now - then by tomorrow it is likely to be too late by anycase. We may be well firmly into a bearsih grip by then. It is only on Slow Stochastic that the red line is above the blue line and seems fine. But by itself I will not give it too much weightage. TRIX - my so far the beloved leading indicator says - bearish times ahead. So as far as I am concerned - till we now go well into the oversold territory - do not expect too much from the markets.

It is 0200 (Yeah it is night 2 'O' Clock) and I am waiting to go flying next . I might not have time to update again before the markets open. So please pardon me. Lucky are those who are sitting on shorts.


Saturday, September 20, 2008

GOD Help Us............ We underperformed Europe!!

0925 hrs: The Asian markets opening almost gave me a heart attack. Though the opening were green - only Nikkei remained green about 2% up and Hang Seng and Strait Times dived red immediately opening. However some sense seemed to have prevailed with all indexes in green. I would suggest that every 100 or more points up we take Put calls to hedge. Take a step without precautions may mean a deep plunge. And of-course I forgot the Pivots for the technically inclined.
R3 4546.85
R2 4404.75
R1 4325.00
Pivot 4182.90
S1 4103.15
S2 3961.05
S3 3881.30

So that is what happened on Friday - a perfect day with a runup and we dedide to umderperforme Europe. We ended up gaining lesser than what Europe did. sob sob... Nifty was up only 5.46% and in europe FTSE climbed 8.84%, Dax 5.56% and Cac 9.27. Okay inspite of the what I have written on top - the day was good and we did make some money. It was required after what we went through last few days. Now the moot question - do we sustain it? I personally feel that for some time now we should not have a problem. The reason is that US is taking steps it deems necessary to get the economy in action. If that be so - then why should we see it in negative light at all? It is because firstly even the best brains still do not understand the size of the damage to the US economy still. Secondly the domino effect will continue - there will be extreme caution on the streets even in the best of the scenarios. The fact remains that the attention from the US govt is becoming greater day by day because they see this as one of the biggest showdowns in history. It is not the same as the period when th US went into the Great Depression of yesteryears. It may be even worse. The US bounced back with vengeance becoming the world's superpower then. This time it is different in the sense that it will be relegated to the just one of the nations of the world in terms of economy - I will be personally surprised if by the time the dust settles finally the US will have the same clout it had for past 100 years now.

Okay now I have spilled out the poison in my mind I will talk about what I expect the markets to do. Firstly the biggest news that has given us this wonderful boost is that US govt is doing all that it can to come out of this crisis. The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for the power to buy $700 billion in toxic assets clogging the financial system and threatening the economy as negotiations began on the largest bailout since the Great Depression. The rescue plan would give Washington broad authority to purchase bad mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions for the next two years. It does not specify which institutions qualify or what, if anything, the government would get in return for the unprecedented infusion. Democrats are pressing to require that the plan help more strapped borrowers stay in their homes and to condition the bailout on new limits on executive compensation. Congressional aides and administration officials are working through the weekend to fill in the details of the proposal. The White House hoped for a deal with Congress by the time markets opened Monday; top lawmakers say they would push to enact the plan as early as the coming week. That being so - there is a strong possibility that the govt will take other steps along with it to stabilise the markets - like it has banned shorting financial sector.

With all these happenings in the markets the investors got a semblance of normality and the markets soared. SO much so that in Europe FTSE ended 8.84% up, Dax 5.56% up and CAC - an amazing 9.27% up. US too appeared in euphoric mood with Dow 3.35% up, Nasdaq 3.4% up and S&P 4.03% in green. This should ensure a green opening in Asia tomorrow morning.

The candle on Nifty was a huge white one. It has written of 50% of the drop we had since Sep 9th. Unfortunately all the indicators take cognisance of the past performance in deriving the figures. Most of the modern day indicators give weightage to the performance starting with data in the immediate past and then give progressively lower weightage as we go back in time. So one days candle did change the stance of the indicators but have not got them into positive mood still. Bollinge bands have stopped growing and that should ideally indicate the downtrend arrested for the time being. The reversal of trend is some time away. We are now somewhere in the middle of the Bollinger Band. The DIvergence between the 5 EMA line and 20 EMA line has reduced but red line still trails below blue. Volumes for past two days were more than average and same on both days. MACD tell a similar story and the divergence has reduced but the red line is still below the blue line. TRIX continues to look down standing by its bearish signal. Slow Stochastic had generated a buy signal two days back and continues with its buy recommendation. RSI has turned positive. The mass index continues to look up now about to touch 26. It is not good - believe me TRIX and Mass index are two reasons that I am cautious.

Green opening is a foregone conclusion and I really feel that the possibility to touch 4500 by thursday is good but the resistance now in place in 4500-4550 range is quite strong and will require conviction to break through. On the down side 4200 has become a fairly strong support and 3800 - because of any reason also shown strength that is not likely to be broken easily.

Crude has again inched up to 102.73$ and crude going up cannot do us well. US is likely to pass the Nuclear deal in congress on 29th Sep. So we wait for monday and hope that we continue with this run up for a few days more. Pakistan is slipping into fairly grave situation with the fundamentalists scoring one psychological victory in terrorising the nation one after another. Instability in Pak will not do us good in long run. I am not aware of any forthcoming event that is likely to affect our markets one way or the other in near future. If someone has a suggestion please post it so that we all gain.

Okay now my appeal to all who read - please be active in commenting to the writeups - it opens my mind and will be beneficial to all who reads with different insights. I will also look up technical indicators for individual stocks if you request me. Also please do subscribe to the feeds - it will deliver the write up to your mail box the moment I update it. Please do click Follow widget if you read daily - It will raise my morale. -- Oof -- and that is too much of lecturing for a day - best of luck I will try to update on monday morning.


Thursday, September 18, 2008

War of the worlds.....

1538 hrs: So we did manage to close up by 200+ points on Nifty - Long live the bulls.

0600hrs 19 Sep 08: Bears watch out - we can have 200 point rally on nifty seeing the US end. So the dragonfly Doji was not telling a lie -it is just that I did not have a courage to listen. Gentlemen - welcome to a green trading day today.

18 Sep 08: What better entertainment do you want from the BSE & NSE brothers. It has suspense, drama, action, dance - twist and everything you would like in a good masala hindi movie. Here the hero -- in this movie "Beer is a king" is up to all kinds of funny tricks to let the bull down. For people like me who have been on the sidelines waiting for the salary to come - it was entertainment. For those however, were dependent on the trading for their income. I can imagine what the times have been like.

To start with, I say again at the cost of repetition that the markets have shown wonderful resilience to close above the 4000 levels. The day opened at 4005 on nifty, and the market fell to 3799.55 a point above 52 week low of 3790.20. Thereafter, it climbed all the way up to close 29 points in Green at 4038.15. if this is not resilience then there is no word as a resilience. The Europe, meanwhile, that had opened in green, briefly went red -- recovered into green and just short of closing once again, dived deep into red. FTSE closed 0.66% red, Dax, 0.04% green and cac 1.06% red. US that open the green is already trailing in red, before even midsession has started. The US trouble is wider and deeper, and above all, much beyond my comprehension. So with every news that comes out there's a new level in stocks, all the world over. High on one day and low on the other day. Presently Dow is trading 0.17% in red, NASDAQ 0.45% down and S&P 500 0.33% red. where does this leave us? Well, it's too early to say, the swings are wild. So till the end of the trading session, and till the Asia opens -- it is difficult to take sides. But once again, chances of it slipping red or closing green are about equal.

The horror story on the candles continues. I would have called the candle today, a dragonfly once again, indicating a reversal of the downtrend, but am no longer sure. The volumes were higher than normal. The Bollinger bands continued to widen with the candles trailing the lower edge. 5 EMA continues traling well below the 20 EMA mark. On MACD divergences has remained about the same as yesterday, but the Red Line continues to trail below the blue line, giving bearish signals. On the RSI there is a small turn to the upside -- but overall it is still bearish. Mass index is just about to point short of 26 marker. TRIX is looking down, giving us no respite whatsoever. It is only the slow stochastic and that is generating a buy signal with both red and blue line above the 20 mark and the Red Line also above the blue marker.

The inflation figures were out today. Though the figure stood at 12.14% -- a shade higher than 12.10% in the previous week -- it showed the signs of stability. The inflation during this time last year was 3.46%. With the above data in hand one can justify both the bullish or the bearish mood. Bearish, because there is a tick increase in inflation and does not show is a sign of slowing down. Bullish, because it has remained stable for the fourth week in a row. So now you can take sides as to what you want to justify the bears or bulls.

For those who are more technically oriented - the resistances and supports for nifty are as under: -

R3 4376.20
R2 4213.15
R1 4125.65%
Pivot 3962.6
S1 3875.10
S2 3712.05
S3 3624.55

Best of luck for tomorrow, and I will try my best to update this blog before the market opening.


Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Wait your saviour is here....... ?

1301hrs: See the magic of my becoming a bear - I may save your day still - Thank me for becoming a bear. If this remains to be the trend - then short covering may just trigger ferociously. But all the same remain very - very cautious.

Okay this is what happens with my life in the stocks generally - as long as I am bullish the market falls and as long as the I am bearish - markets climb to new heights. So here I am - declaring to one and all that I am bearish - now just hold your breath and wait for the magic to start. The world has gone crazy - no one had time to read the market reports that I was having in my hands and gave invitation that I will mail to anyone interested. Now I believe... but seems too late ... nevertheless...

I really do not how I could have been bullish with the two indicators yesterday with rest all against the bulls! Any way I have time for mends as nothing much could have changed really. We seem to be in as thick sh*t as possible.

I will start with Europe diving down in deep waters - FTSE closed 5.61% in red, Dax 1.75% in red and Cac 2.14% in red. There seems to be no other colour on the streets. US that had closed respectfully yesterday opened and as of now dived deep in red. Dow is 2.9% in red, Nasdaq 3.38% in red and S&P down 3.45%. So this is going to turn out to be one of the worst horror shows for many. I do not have guts enough to say that there may or may not be a recovery in US towards their session ending.

International ques being so and so being our trading session today - I do not expect any miracles. The dragonfly yesterday could not work its magic and we opened - tried to go up in green and thereafter what happened is for all to see - we shed blood for one more day - want to hear something positive out of this? well there isn't any expect that 4000 on Nifty has held. Believe me - we may eventually break even this level - but it is quite a feat by the bulls to have saved this level. Volumes are more or less at the same levels. Bollinger bands are expanding giving a go ahead to this bearish session to continue. 5EMA is way below 20 EMA. MACD divergence has increased and no where in a mood to retract. Mass Index is above 25 and as I have been saying for last so many day - it is in no way showing any mercy to the bulls - fast moving for a change of trend (mid term) to bearish. RSI is way bearish nearing 30 marker. Ah! I take a breather as the good old Slow Stochastic is the only indicator that gives a shimmer of hope to the bulls - the red line above the blue line and above the 20 marker. TRIX too is siding with the bears.

Well I do not see any hope to save you blokes other than the fact that I have turned bearish and you will see a marked difference in the markets attitude starting tomorrow. Will try to update tomorrow -- If there is life left in bearish me by then...


Tuesday, September 16, 2008

knock knock...... who's there?......... opportunity.......... for what?

0542 hrs: AIG provided a 85 Billion dollars loan, Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged, US ends in green Dow +1.3%, Nasdaq up 1.28% and S&P up 1.75%. So a strong possibility of green opening as had written yesterday.

2249 hrs: The US markets oscillating around the flat line waiting for the Fed decision to cut or maintain the Rates.

2102 hrs: I believe there is opportunity hiding in every nook and corner. But the problem is that it is we who fail to see it. I too am a culprit on this account -- I see the charts, I see their magic, I do not have the guts to take cognizance and then I spend time in repentance. Well, I believe, that is the part of the game.

Just to keep my minds off these crazy markets I am trying to read about the markets, and one of the books that I've picked up has wonderful interesting notes and quotations. Today, before I go ahead, I would like to quote a few of these quotations-

" no matter what information you have, no matter what you're doing, you can be wrong"
" sellers of greed and buyers of fear -- the contrarians mantra: sell what the crowd wants to buy and buy what the crowd shuns."
"insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results."

So, if you are wise enough now after reading the above let us start with today's analyses. before I talk about the markets in proper I would like to share some information about Lehman Bros. When Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy on Monday, it became the latest but surely not the last victim of sub-prime mortgage collapse. Lehmon owned more than $ 600 billion in assets. Financial institutions around the world have already reported more than half a trillion USD worth of mortgage related losses, and that figure will most likely double or triple before the crisis itself gets exhausted. But there is a bigger potential failure lurking in the background -- the American International group, the insurance giant. It poses a much larger threat to the financial systems than Lehman Bros ever did, because it plays an integral role in several key markets: credit derivatives, mortgages, corporate loans and hedge funds. There is a substantial possibility that American International group, will not be able to meet its obligations and will also be forced into liquidation. A side-effect - its collapse would be as close to an extinction level event as the financial markets have ever seen since the great depression. AIG does business with virtually every financial institution in the world. Nobody knows this market size for real. Who owes what to whom, or from whom -- this is so because there is no central clearing house or a regulator for it. So, the exact effect that it will have on stock markets will only be known once this hits the fan.

The Asia was expected to be weak, and it came as no surprise when Asia opened well into red and thereafter showed no signs of recovery whatsoever. Nikkei finely ended 4.95% down, Hang Seng 5.44% down and straight times 1.01% down. As far as the day is concerned we out performed these markets. The nifty begin its journey from 4072 -- dropping till mid-afternoon to 3919 and finally closing two points in Green at 4090. what a run-up it had. More about it later. Europe too opened in red and has now traded almost the entire day to the closing in red. In fact, dropping a wee bit. FTSE is about to close and is trading 2.32% in red. DAX as trading 1.12% down. Cac is trading 0.82% in red. Considering what we now know about AIG, it was no surprise when US opened red. However, with some reassurance coming from the government for AIG, the stocks recovered and in fact, briefly went green. It is not yet midsession in US and there is a strong possibility that finally they end in green.

On our candlesticks -- are charts are looking exciting for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Bollinger bands have been violated on the lower side and there is a Doji on the candles. It is a dragonfly Doji. it spells a strong reversal to the black candles that we have been having for last five days now. So expect a session, where we bounce back, and cover some of our losses in the recent times. The volumes to were a shade higher than yesterday. On MACD the gloom remains with the red line below the blue line, and divergences increasing. Slow stochastic, the Red Line has crossed above the blue line and is well poised to cross the 20 marker, giving a buy signal. The TRIX is looking down, falling below one marker. The mass index too does not look good, with the line now touching 25 marker. The RSI has stopped dropping, and now runs parallel to 30 marker - not really encouraging. All in all we have two bullish indicators, and all the rest indicators are beer-ish or at the maximum neutral.

The crude oil is at USD 92.51 a barrel. Taking help of the global indications that I hope to be positive tomorrow, the crude oil price and the few bullish indicators that we have - I feel that we should open green and recover some of the losses that we have been having at last few days. I am at the moment, neither bearish now bullish. Because, though the indications are bearish -- I'm a bull at heart. So best of luck for tomorrow and I will try to update the blog in the morning if I have time.


Monday, September 15, 2008

The Gambler........ Kenny Rogers

0630hrs: Oil down to 94$ a barrel. The talk is that technically it can hit a low of 85-86$ before a bounce back. US went down and under seeing 4.5% red on closing and Asia - Nikkei has opened red and trading 4.56% red. Another rocking day in making....

2237 hours: today after seeing the markets, I came back home, had a wonderful sleep. The reasons were basically two some, firstly, I had no exposure to the derivatives, and secondly, I give a damn to where my stocks go. Another thing that I did was to dig out Kenny Rogers song the The Gambler and heard it about 10 times. Out of those lyrics I will just post two sentences: -

....Said, if youre gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

These words are like a Prophecy on times such as these. I will not waste any more time and we'll get back to business. What Lehman Bros have done is that they have put out of business dozens of the world economies. It is at times like this that make you humble, no matter what you think about yourself. This act of the US, of not bailing out Lehman Bros may have shaken up the entire world economies but I believe that in the long run the action will hold in good stead. After all how long can the taxpayers money pay for your mistakes -- the mistakes that have been generated out of extreme flamboyance and overconfidence. This is not the first time that such an incident has happened and will not be the last. There was nothing but blood on the streets today. I don't want to recount what happened to our markets today. FTSE opened red and dropped further down by midday, recovering a little bit and ending at 3.92% down, Dax ended 2.74% in red and Cac closed 3.78% in red. After dropping the entire Asia and Europe in red -- the US red opening was the least US could do to sympathise with us. Dow opened red and is presently trading during the midsession 2.05% down. NASDAQ too opened red and this trading presently 1.29% down. S&P 500 too is down 1.89%. I somehow had a feeling that there was a slight chance that US recovers. If it does, then we might survive and not get slaughtered tomorrow. Otherwise anyone's guess is as good as mine.

I hope that no one is expecting magic in the charts -- the charts are as bad as they can be. The Bollinger bands that had constricted yesterday, have widened showing that the down trend is in place, the candles are not only trailing the lower edge but also going out of the band. 5 EMA is trailing well below the 20 EMA. The volumes, though less than yesterday are good enough. The MACD divergence has increased with the red line well below the blue. RSI is way down and bearish. The mass index is about to reach 25, and with every step it takes gets it closer to the 26.5 to 27 band, gives us more and more fear of the trend is changing to a downtrend. TRIX -- my favourite leading indicator is showing a downtrend. The only hope that I see in the charts today is that the slow statistic shows oversold conditions. The Red Line still trails below the blue line but both red and blue are in the oversold territory. Mind you, it can stay here for another day or so.

The international queues are not giving us any respite and neither are the charts. So, I am with the bears now till the time there is a turnround of indications on my chart. Purely by the charts the downside can go upto 3823 levels on nifty. For the more technical the support and resistances as per the pivot point calculations are as under: -
R3 4503
R2 4370
R1 4221
Pivot 4088
S1 3939
S2 3806
S3 3657

So those who would like to build up positions can look out for the break of support S1 and start buying. I feel that S1 should not be broken in a manner to continue the downtrend up to S2. Rest - just wait for the matinee show to begin at 9:55 AM.....


Copy of HSBC report on India and Indians......

This is a small part of our behavior pattern and makes for an extremely interesting reading - If someone wants the full copy please leave your email ID. Infact so much so it has given me insight as to why I am bullish and why I should change my attitude.

Global Research Indian investors must be the only bulls left in the world We think their expectations of lower rates and strong earnings are over-optimistic. We remain underweight Elsewhere bears are ubiquitous, but behaviour has not become ultra-bearish yet The worst is not, so long as we can say "This is the worst" (shakespeare, King Lear) They are an increasingly rare breed, but we have found a herd of them at last - bulls, that is. In marketing trips over the past few months to the us, Europe and around Asia (even in china and Korea) we do not remember meeting a single bullish investor. some fund managers have been less bearish than others, but we do not recall a single one telling us they had a high conviction that stocks would rise strongly over coming months. we were shocked, then, to find in meeting fund managers in India this week that perhaps two-thirds are outright bullish, some extremely so, and many are puzzled as to why the Indian market has fallen at all this year and why foreigners have been net sellers. Their bullishness is perhaps understandable when you look at how strongly the Indian market has performed in the past two months, outperforming MscI Asia ex Japan by 25% and enjoying a nice summer rally while that in the rest of the region petered out. They are also enjoying the luxury of net inflows: Indian domestic equity funds have seen average monthly inflows of INR39bn this year, compared to INR20bn last year. outside of India, bulls are non-existent. But, while investors may talk bearishly, they have not necessarily acted that way yet. Mutual fund cash holdings, hedge fund returns and analysts' recommendations have all become a little more bearish in recent months, but none are at capitulation levels yet. The bear market goes on.


Sunday, September 14, 2008

Goro ki na kalo ki...... yeh duniya hai dill walo ki...

2331hrs: Oil below 100$

14 Sep 08 Jaggu too has joined the bear gang and I am alone now. He says that TRIN is Bearish.

13 Sep 08: Where do we go wrong every time we do go wrong? I peered over the data I used for making the assessment and got the same answers I got earlier. I know that the markets have a mind of their own - and they do not like surprises - and that IIP data was an unexpected that would have made them jittery - but after the data came out - then what? Is Lehman brother contributing to our economy in such a big way that their crash will leave us with no money whatsoever to survive and poverty will become rampant - the government here will become unstable and we will go to a war with all our neighbors? If no then why are we falling - agreed that the indicators are not particularly bullish - but then they were not particularly bearish either. Every time my assessment goes wrong it takes me to read and read and try getting answers as to where I went wrong and usually I have to lump it as by saying that the market decided to do what it wanted to. Yeah I am aware of that theory that you have to be right only more than 50% of time - but then where is the difference between flicking a coin everyday morning and working towards reading the markets? One of those sentimental times I guess..... any way I am not deterred so far.... are you?

Let's get on with my assessment for tomorrow. There have been a series of blasts across New Delhi claiming 20 lives and injuring 90. This increasing wave of terror moving from one city to another does not bear well with the country/security for a stable economy. For a long time now we have taken terror in our stride and moved ahead but at some stage such actions will get noticed and will be detrimental to our progress. Anyway for the short-term it might not matter as of now.

It was the data on the index of industrial production (IIP) that everyone was eagerly waiting for on Friday. When it came - it was a pleasant surprise but when it came to the markets discounting it in the trading for the day it had no effect at all. IIP figures revealed that the overall growth was 7.1% -- lower as compared to 8.3% witnessed in July 2007. However even at this level the heartening signal was that industrial production, at slightly above the 7% increase, notched up in April and appeared to be back on the recovery path from the low growth of 3.8% in May and 5.4% in June. Eating the industrial recovery was the huge growth in capital goods production which surged by a steep 21.9% from 12.3% in July last year. The consumer durable segment which witnessed a downturn in production a few months ago also grew by a healthy 11.2% in July this year. This was -2.7% during the same month last year. Also the point to remember is that before the figures came out average expectations of the market were hovering around 6% in July. These numbers that is why were supposed to be a positive surprise. in terms of user-based classification of in 10/17 groups witnessed positive growth in July this year. that is as far as the industry goes -- however as far as the real estate goes the woes are are nowhere near over. Every new news coming out regarding the real estate is purely bad with no respite in sight.

On Friday the Asia was mixed and if it all on the positive side expect for us and Hang Seng. Nikkei ended up 0.93%, Straits Times up 1.16% and it was the Hang Seng that was down 0.18% red and of course BSE down 2.26%, and see down 1.44%. Europe opened positive dipped down near the flat line and again climbed well into the positive territory. FTSE closed 1.85% green, Dax 0.91% up and Cac 1.97% up. the US over has still not been able to decide what the Lehman Bros mean for them. Dow closed 0.1% in red, NASDAQ 0.14% green and S&P 500 0.21% up.

On the charts now there is not even a single positive indicator that I see. The Bollinger bands have narrowed further with the candles now near the bottom edge. The 5 EMA is below 20 EMA. The volumes have risen. The MA CD diverges to the negative has increased. RSI is bearish, TRIX is looking down and maybe start indicating a bearish phase. Slow Stochastic deadline is below the blue line and has moved into the oversold territory. The Maas index continues to rise and is way above 24. So like I said earlier all in all there is no indicator that is sporting the Bulls. The only respite -- if it all is that we did not close below 4214 nifty. for those who are interested in the pivot points and the resistances the data is as under:-

R3 4423
R2 4373
R1 4300
Pivot 4250
S1 4177
S2 4127
S3 4054

Markets may recover on monday. I can post Credit Sussie report on india to whoever wishes it. Please leave your mail ID in the comments.


Thursday, September 11, 2008

Oil and the markets both lower............. LOL

1358 hrs: Things are not working out at all on the markets. I really do not have any other input except that the FIIs are selling for past few days.

0635 hrs 12 Sep 08: So the doom sayers managed a win - with all the positivity there was gloom on the markets. We cannot say that the bulls did not try hard - but it was just that the bears won. When its a fight - some win - some loose and I was wrong reading a recovery yesterday after a red start. Now we have a real chance to see 4214 levels. maybe not in straight sessions but slowly. But even now there is no clear breakout - do not mistake this fall for three days as a trend - though the fall now has the support at 4214 levels and after that even lower at 3800 levels. I really do hope that we do not see those levels in near future.

Can you beat it - US closed green day before as they thought that Lehman brothers are getting a viable solution for the bail out - and the world does not agree with the US. Asia opened and closed deep red that included us. And then came the Europe that opened green fell to red and managed once again to wipe out deep cuts - but still ending in red. FTSE was 0.89% down, Dax 0.51% red and CAC was 0.81% red. Seeing all this perhaps - US opened red and then recovered well into green Dow up 1.46%, Nasdaq up 1.32% and S&P 1.38%. Now it had to nail in some sense into Asia and Asia opened green Nikkei +0.87% and Strait Times up 1.35%. Well as of past two days US is not in sync with the rest of the world. They feel that the trouble now out in the open can perhaps be dealt with and rest of the world is reeling in pessimism - LOL. Today is the day when our markets can wash the past three days of sins and atone for the same. The Oil is not going anywhere and the green impetus is already present. If the charts show any oversold positions then today may be the day when we recover back into green.

So - let us see what the charts say today. Well the 5 EMA has crossed below the 20 EMA and the Bollinger bands have constricted further. We are very near to the bottom edge of the Bollinger bands. The MACD divergence has become negative but just - the red line and the blue line are almost overlapping. The Mass Index continues its march upwards steadily but slowly - I would love to will it to stop - but cannot. TRIX is absolutely flat - so if not with the bulls - it is not with the bears also. The Slow Stochastic is still bad wherein the red line is below the blue line - both heading past the 50 marker. RSI is another indicator that is not looking good (looking bearish) - so all in all even after yesterday's fall there is still no trend and we are range bound with indicators divided over the true direction.

The policy ideally should be to take positions for the long term with the oscillations be used for making small money - getting the thrill of the markets. Crude will force our markets to wake up and go up. There is already selective buying going on. Tech will benefit from the Rupee weakness. Holiday season is around the corner. Recovery is definite today but the following remains to be seen - firstly recover by how much? secondly can we sustain it? and will there be some impetus for maintaining the lead over the bears. Best of luck - to all who went long yesterday.


Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Let's do the Tango......one step forward - one back...

0700hrs 11 Sep: US closes green as expected but Asia begins the day red with Nikkei and Strait Times down more than 1.25%. Dollar still strong and Crude in 102-104 $ range. Waiting for Jaggu to wake up and give us the TRIN. ;-)

2329hrs: Joetom's page updated - for info please. His link is in my blog list.

2115hrs 10 Sep 08 Red was the colour of the day that was arrived at by many and that was what the markets showed us. We are carrying someone else's burden or our own? Asia was down Nikkei ending 0.44% in red, Hang Seng down 2.4% and Strait Times down 1.9%. We were out performers at that in the sense that nifty was 68.45 points down at 1.53% red. Hardly a point of relief but all the same. The Close? .25 points above 4400. So bears finding this a hard nut to crack? Its like a Kho - Kho game now between the bulls and the bears. Europe too ended low but better than Asia - FTSE at 0.90% red, Dax 0.53% red and Cac 0.38% red. Us on the other hand opened green - dipped red and then shot well into green once again. The conviction during the second upswing by US was good and I feel that it may end well into green. Though early and not available - the upswing may be as Lehman Brothers Holdings said it plans to sell a majority stake in its investment management division and spin off commercial real estate assets as the investment bank fights to raise capital. The fourth-largest U.S. investment bank said it has reduced exposure to toxic assets, including cutting its residential mortgage exposure by nearly half, and cut its dividend. SO for the time being we will just have to wait and see.

Now to the charts. The chart for the day is not bad . Why I say it is because inspite of two days of fall the candle is well contained within the white body of the candle made on 8th. So there is a chance that the bulls will strike back tomorrow. The volumes were shade greater than last three days. The 5EMA line still is above the 20 EMA line and that continues to give good indications. The MACD divergence has reduced but remains positive with the red line above the blue. MACD is bullish. There are now three indications that are becoming worrisome. Firstly the Mass Index that has touched 24 - unless it turns back - I remain vary of it indicating trend reversal. RSI is looking down and finally in Slow Stochastic the red line is below the blue line and looks bad. TRIX still looks up.

I am changing the paragraph and continuing to write about a change that I saw today - on the Bollinger bands - they have constricted and in another few days time a strong trend to be established. That trend may be positive or negative - I can take a call and wait - there are 50% chance that the call will be correct and boost my ego - but the fact remains that which side it will be I do not know - but a strong trend is in making. The second reason I am not giving this call is that my mind says it will be a positive breakout - but the idiot boxes are shouting red so loudly that I am actually afraid. If you want to know what my mind say and will not blame me later then - build longs and not short. Just by the way we are in perfect middle of the bands.

The crude could not sustain above 103 and has slipped below to 102.57 $. That remains good. I will try to update this blog tomorrow before the market opens. Singur dust is about to settle down - one way or the other and there now no dearth of the invitations to TATA - WB knows it and I am sure that the solution will be arrived at shortly.


Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Neither Bulls ...... Nor Bears ..... then who rules the Roost?

0635 hrs 10 Sep 08 As expected US has closed with deep cuts. Dow down 2.43%, Nasdaq 2.64$ and S&P 3.41%. Asia taking the cues has started - Nikkei down 1.59% and Strait Times down 1.09%. So we expect a red opening. Crude is down to 102.65 dollars a barrel. That will be our savior eventually.

2115hrs, 09 Sep 08: Day before we had all the indications of a good bull run and the Bulls dashed our hopes by not crossing the crucial resistance levels. Okay - that's nothing great really - it happens.... then we expected the round to be taken over by the bears to hammer the markets out of shape and nothing like this happened either. The day that was handed over in a platter to the bears and they could not do anything... well you cannot call a - 44 point drop in Sensex a bear day... can we? If bulls don't have a capacity to win and neither do bears then where exactly are we? do we decide a winner by the relative points gained or lost? There seems to be no other way. And the way the things are - it seems bears may not get such a good chance in a hurry, but the candles tell us a different story.

Reasons - not many for the bulls - but neither so many for the bears. The crude has dropped further and at this rate it is going to break the 100$ support. If that be so then we may ignore this for whatever time we want - ultimately it will be factored in and all the idiot boxes will shout the same thing - we are in a medium to long term upswing. So as I see it now - the problem is not here - it in US data that is coming out one after the another creating panic in the air. US cannot be disregarded and set aside... Period. There can be no argument on that at the moment. So on the Global cues front we were expecting weakness and weakness was there - In Asia Nikkei opened and closed deep red. Closing was 1.77% down, Hang Seng closed 1.46% down and Strait Times was 0.88% down. Basically the gains of yesterday were not written off today. Europe opened flattish red and then came comfortably in green till short of closing - ending in red once again. FTSE was 0.46% red, Dax was 0.34% red and CAC too ended 0.92% red. US opened red made a small attempt to go green but continues falling as I write now. It is still not mid session and the markets in US are showing no signs of recovery - as of now Dow is down 0.67%, Nasdaq is down 0.60% and S&P is down 1.33%. Though it is really early to say but - there is only blood on the US markets. This drop is on the drop in seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes as it fell by 6.8%. That offset optimism as oil prices sank below $105 a barrel as Hurricane Ike appeared to be headed away from energy installations in the Gulf Coast. In addition, comments from Saudi Arabia suggested that OPEC could decide to keep crude output steady despite worries about rapidly falling prices.

On the technical side though the candle appears like a hammer - I would classify it as a hangman. This hangman generally indicates further drop in strength. So coupled with the global cues - bears still do have a chance. Bollinger bands today finally gave a small indication of contracting - a contraction leads to breakout and we are waiting for so long now. Good or bad - show us the way. 5EMA trails above the Blue line comfortably. Volumes today were lower than what we saw when the markets were up yesterday. MACD has increased the positive divergence with the red line now above blue line. Mass index almost touches the 24 marker - not good. TRIX - a leading indicator looks up - from the flattish outlook for past so many days. On slow stochastic the red line trails below the blue line but the divergences is somewhat reduced. RSI is bullish but in a half hearted manner. So all in all the indicators are mixed to slightly more bearish. Inspite of the bearish indications - I would maintain my bullish out look. We may trade red - but recover to green - if not then unless the drop is news driven - we may not fall too much in any case.

News that can effect us tomorrow is any acceptable solution to the Singur issue. Further drop in Oil to around 102$ a barrel and US passing our deal in their parliament. Forthcoming pay commission out flow will see buoyant demand this holiday season. I will try and update the US close and Asia opening tomorrow morning. Thanks to Jaggu for making an entry in Following widget, and dr. c. m., amitbhai and crick_love for leaving wonderful morale boosting comments. Have a wonderful day.


Monday, September 8, 2008

Not convinced for a rally ....... Or something really wrong?

Okay - it is 0740 in morning and I thought I will update this article a little. The US as expected and written earlier - has ended green but that did not ensure a green opening in Asia with Nikkei and Strait Times both down by about a percent and a Half. Jaggu says that the TRIN is bearish and I do not really have a reason to disagree.

The day started with a bang as it had expected to be really. 3% up was the beginning and actually I was looking for a bigger bang. The bang really did not happen and towards the end of the session we gave some of our gains to end in green - but below expectations. Why was the moderation? I got a sms from someone that there is a lot of negative rumors doing rounds. I tried to see what those rumors were - and could not get any but obviously the market did slide towards closing. There was to be some profit booking - after all we have not set aside what happened to our longs in jan 08 - but why do I see a 124 point gain on nifty not really good enough? If this is not good enough - let me first explain what I would have considered good enough - I would have considered it good if we had closed above the psychological barrier of 4500 on Nifty and we could not maintain it. Moreover the lack of confidence was evident as in the F&O segment, large-cap stocks, particularly banking and finance, power and realty sectors, witnessed profit-booking. Among banking and finance stocks, September futures of HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India closed near their day’s low with the order books in the last hour of trade showing more outstanding sellers than buyers. Among capital goods stocks, Bhel and Larsen & Toubro each closed almost Rs 100 lower from the day’s highs, indicating profit-booking at higher levels. Reliance Industries too closed near the day’s low, indicating profit-booking. All this is worrysome. The kind of news we had and the reason to close above 4500 - we may not have the same reasons tomorrow to continue the momentum. We are living in the troubled times.

The world markets behaved well - atleast as far as Asia and Europe was concerned. Nikkei closed 3.38% green, Hang Seng 4.32% green and Strait Times 4.77% green. FTSE was 3.92% green, Dax 2.22% green and CAC 3.42% green. So far so good. Now comes US - The opening was green as expected but then in the mid session the stocks showed weakness and so much so that Nasdaq went into the red territory before recovering into green. We have time before US closing as they are in their mid session only and the swing can take them anywhere - ideally however they should close green. DOw at the moment is 1.52% up in green, Nasdaq struggling at 0.03% green and S&P 500 at 1.08% green. The reasons are there for a green closing but we will have to wait. There will be profound effect on where we go tomorrow depending upon the US closing and Asia opening tomorrow.

On the candles the volumes were shade higher than the volumes during yesterday's fall. Taken singularly as a white candle in comparison with the bodies of last two days black candles - this white candle today in within these two candle bodies and that is the bearish indicator that does not look good at all. The 5 EMA line is above the 20 EMA and that is good and bullish. MACD has a slight positive divergence (I emphasise slight). Mass Index continues to move up and now a dot short of 24. That's not good. RSI is bullish. Slow Stochastic red line is below the blue line and that again is not a good sign. On Bollinger bands the bandwidth is same as before and we are in middle - nor with the top end or the bottom - that indicates indecisiveness. TRIX is flattish with little raised head - may improve with time. ;-) TRIN - that I will get from Jaggu tomorrow. There is trouble as the indicators are not very positive and we may have a flat to weak opening if the global cues remain flattish.

There is no other news of significance except crude is inching down again.

Hey I am repeating my appeal to all of you who follow this blog. As I wrote yesterday - I appeal to all those come and read the blog - please do leave a rating - and if you do read it often then please leave your mark by telling me that you follow. It will give me immense satisfaction and encouragement if you can do so as that is all that I am writing this blog for. Believe me there is no monetary benefit involved. Wish you all luck again.


Sunday, September 7, 2008

Give me one reason to be bearish...... and I will give you ten to be bullish..

08:20 The Asian markets had opened exactly as expected and they are trading on an average 3.5% up. Prepare for a rollicking time ahead. As they say - make hay while sun shines. Psst ... there is a small appeal at the end of the page too. Please do give it a moment.

It was a nail bitting suspense. I lost my sleep as NSG went on to debate the India specific safeguards. It was nail bitting as the five nations that opposed the draft - had the capability to stall the proceedings and an opportunity like this would then might not have presented itself for a long time to come. Back home the vultures were waiting and wishing this deal to go bad as they wanted political mileage ".... I told you so, US was never interested or I knew that this deal would never see the light of the day". What this deal has given to me and you: -
(a) A promise of a future without power cuts.
(b) Acceptance that India's stand all along on NPT was right.
(c) India has come of age.
(d) Do not do the mistake of trusting China, they are what they were in 1962.

This is just the beginning. There would be a lot more to come in terms of commerce and opportunities that cannot be listed in a few words. I would like to waste some more time of yours and take quote from Times Of India "...making a strategic error of mammoth proportions, China overplayed its hand by opposing the waiver at the 11th hour. Whether anybody admits it or not, China's last-minute shenanigans will profoundly affect its relations with India. If the Beijing Olympics was China's coming-out party, the NSG waiver was India's and China threw a spanner in the works."

Okay now ... the Global Cues - Asia closed as we did - down deep red. Nikkei was down unbelievable - down down and down it has gone - 2.75%, Hang Seng 2.24% and Strait times down 1.97%. Europe was down 2.5% on an average - FTSE down 2.26% (best of the lot), Dax down 2.42% and CAC down 2.49%. US opened red but managed a flattish green closing with Dow up 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.14% and S&P 500 up 0.44%. The fact remains that the US ignored the fact that Gustav did not manage to inflict damage as much as Catrina did and oil has been showing weakness settling around 106 $. By and large US govt and NOGs responded much better than before to take action and that too limited the damage that might have otherwise resulted from Gustav. That proves that the investor is vary of the financial and the economic data coming out of US. In the coming days our nuclear deal should cheer the markets ideally. Asia opening on Monday should be positive.

On the charts nothing much has really changed. We are in the middle of Bollinger bands and the width is almost the same as before. 5 EMA line remains above the 20 EMA and that is good considering last two days of black candles. On MACD the red line and the blue line are almost overlapping. The negative divergence is very small. Mass Index line continues to climb up - that is not good but till it shows change in trend - it remains good. RSI is bullish - but needs an injection to boost up its morale. Slow Stochastic is another one showing a negative divergence with the red line below blue line but dropping. Other than this TRIX remains at 1 - undecided which way to go.

As far as our markets are concerned - the negativity of the NSG deal is out by and large. Now ideally the lower crude, weaker rupee, stable govt and lower inflation should be accounted for by the market and I do expect a good opening and a wonderful bullish session - after all what are the negativities in the market now? Operators ? LOL - For the first time since they kicked me in Jan I am laughing this laugh as I now feel there is little they will be able to do. So if retail has bought into last few days fall then the chances are that the rally will carry them to new highs.

Best of luck to all and I will try to update once the Asian markets open on Monday morning.

I have a small appeal to all those come and read the blog - please do leave a rating - and if you do read it often then please leave your mark by telling me that you follow. It will give me immense satisfaction and encouragement if you can do so as that all that I am writing this blog for. Believe me there is no monetary benefit involved. Wish you all luck again.


Friday, September 5, 2008

If Global Cues are the way to go...........

If the Global cues are the way to go then we are down in dumps. Oils is stable at lower levels but the retail and unemployment data was so bad that the markets could not get a hold over themselves. Europe that was fairly steady could not hold the levels and crashed miserably. FTSE was down 2.5%, Dax down 2.91% and CAC down 3.22%. US - the initiator of the bad news in the recent times - was 3% down in red on an average making it fall like - just don't want to say it. Dow in red 2.99%, Nasdaq red 3.20% and S&P 500 down 2.99%. After these figures - we cannot blame Asia to open and trade red - can we? Nikkei is down2.96% and Strait Times is down 2.24%. It is like there is a competition as to who will fall lower - ? After seeing this red bloodshed all over I started looking around for the reasons. Believe me there is nothing that can justify this kind of panic. Are they (world markets) becoming more like us?

The candles are conflicting and are not really in tune with the global indications. The black candle formed yesterday could not in real terms damage the bullish candle of the day before. It could not technically pierce the day before's 150 odd point white candle seriously enough to show that bulls have given up. It is what I would have called. Bears won the battle yesterday but not the war. The 5 EMA line continued trailing above the 20 EMA. We have slowly tried change of sides and are now approaching the upper end of Bollinger band - the width remaining steady with no contraction of divergence - does not signal any change in the trend. On MACD line the divergence between the red and blue lines is zero and in all the probability the red line could have crossed over the blue line today - it might do that even now. Like I said that the Mass Index is trying to go up and frankly it is not a good sign as the trend change levels are above the present levels. RSI looked down - but the trend still seems positive. TRIX is flat at one - gives us no clue as to the coming trend. It shows that we are at cross roads and any momentous change can take us to negative - or positive territory. Slow Stochastic - red line remains firm in overbought territory and blue line is just below 80 marker - in my experience the slow stochastic - unlike StochRSI does not remain too long in overbought or oversold territories. StochRSI is at 50. Jaggu is back and his TRIN says bearish. I am trying my best to incorporate some more technical indications in my study but just not getting enough time for that. Will try once again.

So where does all this take us? Before I come to that - our internal and external factors. I have been saying that a big news around the corner is that of the nuclear deal. It can leave us euphoric or down in the dumps. As of now the inputs are not particularly good. The crisis will snowball if NSG does not fall in line and support the deal. The political fallout in our country will be bad in short term and in long term the industry and energy crisis will worsen. So it is important that the deal now goes through. The oil prices getting stablising at 100$ actually gives it a chance to fall and stablise below 100 to 80$ levels - that would be wonderful but I am not really sure that it would happen. The floods have done immense damage in the eastern states and in Bihar. The inflation figure coming down for second week is a reason for celebration - and this is before the Govt has tinkered with the fuel price. If in future the international Oil price comes down to a level where the govt can afford a small drop - it will boost the sentiment as there is no tomorrow. So all in all a lower opening is a foregone conclusion - but technically there is a bright chance that the fall may not be as hard as perceived - and in the best case scenario we may disregard the global cues and may tick green. The week end however may play the spoil sport.

Best of luck and I too will be eager to see what happens today as it will dictate and put the trend in place for our markets to follow in short term. Also I am sorry - I am not doing proof reading and checking my english as once again there is no electricity and the laptop battery will not last long enough.


Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Okay the party is over........... now what?

Okay before I start out with the markets - the Google has launched its own browser and I believe that technologically I should not be left behind so became one of the first ones to download it and run it. Like all other things - "Google" it is a class and much faster than even Firefox. You may like to give it a try. The name is Chrome and you can get it by clicking here or see the philosophy behind the making of the browser by going through the Comic strip launched here.

Well we had a wonderful run up last trading day on Tuesday- It was good - wasn't it? Well actually it may not turn up to be as good as we want it to be. It has been my view that I have shared on this blog a number of times before that we are too sentiment driven. When we correct we fall as a lump of Sh*t and when we recover we tend to overdo that too. If you read my previous bolg - we had all the reasons to be green - but up 140-150 points on Nifty - were our reasons justifying the hype? I really do not think so and the retail that would have bought in the later half of Tuesday will have to now wait before they get something out of the stocks bought. One of the calls given yesterday were of buying puts - the reason given was that the sharp rise in the markets was driven by software based buying - hitting stoplosses for the shorts and making fresh buying above the resistance levels. If that be so then the purpose of the perpetrator of this scheme has worked and they have handed over their positions at higher levels and now laugh all the way to fatter profits in the coming days. Well all may not be so rosy yet for them as there is a bright chance that this up move will eventually be strengthened and will take us to higher levels - albeit in due course of time.

Leave this aside too for some time as the general trend continues to be up and we have no reason to worry for the mid term or the long term horizon. It is only the short term that this has a bearing on. Well the world markets did not do so well as we worshiped "Ganesha". The US has been falling for straight last three session. I will start with Asia - Nikkei closed green 0.64%, Hang Seng red 2.17% (Phew) and Strait times down 1.90%. Europe too did not do too well FTSE closing 2.15% red, DAX down 0.78% and CAC down 2.03%. US is still open - it started flat with red bias and went deeper red Dow is now at 0.56%, Nasdaq down 0.89% and S&P 500 down 0.79%. All in all the US is likely to end red only. That is likely to force some more pressure on the Asia's opening and in all the likelyhood we too will open red and ....

It is the technicals that can bail us out in this hour if at all. On the candles 5 EMA has crossed above the 20 EMA and looks good. This crossover indicates the continuation of the uptrend. The volumes were higher than usual. Ideally with the last trading day's upmove the MACD red line should have crossed above the blue but for some reason it did not. Mass Index that hovered around 23 has moved up - not particularly encouraging but neverthless - supports the uptrend. RSI looking up and Slow Stochastic red line has moved to the overbought area with the blue line following in its wake. TRIX is flat around 1 and looking for a turnaround. It will then be with the bulls. As you would have read at so many places if you read blogs on Nifty - there is a head and shoulder formation that is forming and may lead to a drop in short term.

So all in all this week may really test your nerves as I wrote on Monday. There are storms hitting US (hurricane season), Oil dropped to about 105 dollars before recovering and now hovers around 108-109 dollars. Though commodities are cooling off - fresh job data and the manufacturing data from US continues to be troublesome.Back home Singur and Orrisa haunts us. Nuclear deal - may turn sentiments wild??

This part is for my darling father - It is my birthday and you have to wish me -- and of course give my daily dose of 5 star rating for this writeup.


Monday, September 1, 2008

In an absolute nail bitting drama ..... we choose bulls

In a wonderful action cum suspense - the stock markets decided to say - enough is enough... bears do not make too much sense and decided to inch up. there were factors - but most was on will power. See oil cracking down to 111 dollars yesterday? Well it is 111 dollars almost. And this factor alone can take us comfortably to good opening. But the point thereafter would be remaining there. Will we?

On the international front - Europe closed down but not out - I mean that it started out flat and ended flattish red. (WOW to my choice of words - Flattish red) FTSE was down 0.60%, Dax down 0.01% and CAC down 0.23%. The US remained closed - so they really missed a day where they could perhaps would have moved up green - with Gustav loosing its hold and Oil falling down to around 111 dollars. Todays Asia opening coupled with our opening will therefore not e dictated by US. Asia has already opened and Nikkei after its initial red tick has moved into the green territory and Strait Times after opening green has lost a few points but still in green.

With the flattish close yesterday we almost made a dragonfly. Well I say almost as it has a small upper wick and a shaved off head would have been more preferable. Any way the dragonfly is a bullish sign and in all its good sense likely to carry us higher today. MACD divergence has reduced further and in all the likely hood - red line should cross over the blue line today giving us a good positive session in comming day. I also say this because the redline - though trailed below blue line was lacking the kind of conviction that we have seen in the past falls - but that is if we have a green run today. The RSI has turned flat at 50 marker and can be considered as a good politician - will take the sides of the winning team. SlowStochastic is bullish and TRIX - after looking down for so many days has stopped looking down with the steep gradient - but still is bearish. Mass index still says that bulls have a field day ahead of them. StochRSI is in oversold territory.

The markets may open positive and remain so throughout the day - green. So have a ball today. Cheers.

Events - Reddy goes, OPEC meet around corner, fuel price slashing on the cards, Singur...