Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Okay the party is over........... now what?

Okay before I start out with the markets - the Google has launched its own browser and I believe that technologically I should not be left behind so became one of the first ones to download it and run it. Like all other things - "Google" it is a class and much faster than even Firefox. You may like to give it a try. The name is Chrome and you can get it by clicking here or see the philosophy behind the making of the browser by going through the Comic strip launched here.

Well we had a wonderful run up last trading day on Tuesday- It was good - wasn't it? Well actually it may not turn up to be as good as we want it to be. It has been my view that I have shared on this blog a number of times before that we are too sentiment driven. When we correct we fall as a lump of Sh*t and when we recover we tend to overdo that too. If you read my previous bolg - we had all the reasons to be green - but up 140-150 points on Nifty - were our reasons justifying the hype? I really do not think so and the retail that would have bought in the later half of Tuesday will have to now wait before they get something out of the stocks bought. One of the calls given yesterday were of buying puts - the reason given was that the sharp rise in the markets was driven by software based buying - hitting stoplosses for the shorts and making fresh buying above the resistance levels. If that be so then the purpose of the perpetrator of this scheme has worked and they have handed over their positions at higher levels and now laugh all the way to fatter profits in the coming days. Well all may not be so rosy yet for them as there is a bright chance that this up move will eventually be strengthened and will take us to higher levels - albeit in due course of time.

Leave this aside too for some time as the general trend continues to be up and we have no reason to worry for the mid term or the long term horizon. It is only the short term that this has a bearing on. Well the world markets did not do so well as we worshiped "Ganesha". The US has been falling for straight last three session. I will start with Asia - Nikkei closed green 0.64%, Hang Seng red 2.17% (Phew) and Strait times down 1.90%. Europe too did not do too well FTSE closing 2.15% red, DAX down 0.78% and CAC down 2.03%. US is still open - it started flat with red bias and went deeper red Dow is now at 0.56%, Nasdaq down 0.89% and S&P 500 down 0.79%. All in all the US is likely to end red only. That is likely to force some more pressure on the Asia's opening and in all the likelyhood we too will open red and ....

It is the technicals that can bail us out in this hour if at all. On the candles 5 EMA has crossed above the 20 EMA and looks good. This crossover indicates the continuation of the uptrend. The volumes were higher than usual. Ideally with the last trading day's upmove the MACD red line should have crossed above the blue but for some reason it did not. Mass Index that hovered around 23 has moved up - not particularly encouraging but neverthless - supports the uptrend. RSI looking up and Slow Stochastic red line has moved to the overbought area with the blue line following in its wake. TRIX is flat around 1 and looking for a turnaround. It will then be with the bulls. As you would have read at so many places if you read blogs on Nifty - there is a head and shoulder formation that is forming and may lead to a drop in short term.

So all in all this week may really test your nerves as I wrote on Monday. There are storms hitting US (hurricane season), Oil dropped to about 105 dollars before recovering and now hovers around 108-109 dollars. Though commodities are cooling off - fresh job data and the manufacturing data from US continues to be troublesome.Back home Singur and Orrisa haunts us. Nuclear deal - may turn sentiments wild??

This part is for my darling father - It is my birthday and you have to wish me -- and of course give my daily dose of 5 star rating for this writeup.



Anonymous said...


really great..what a summary and analysis
wishing you a very happy birthday

following your blog for a long time...getting courage to post some comments now..

baught 4200 and 4300 puts on tuesday..even sold 4600 calls...and holding longs in mid cap counters like noida toll, suzlon and yes bank...will like to exit longs first thing on opening...and taking long positions later.....what do you say..??


Joe tom said...

Many Happy REturns of the Day!!!

Consider the 5 stars as 5 candles lit!!!


S S Cheema said...

Joetom Sir and Dr C M Singh,
thanks a ton for your good wishes. Dr C M Singh can I have your nick name - addressing you in full is difficult. To your second question - I would for the time being step out of the markets whenever I get profits whether on shorts or longs and slowly build up a portfolio with 6months to a years horizon. The small upmoves and downswings will give you just a thrill of the markets - the long term investments done at these levels will be the ones that will give you good money.

geniusjaggu said...

o huzoor,tera tera tera suroor
teri baaten teri yaaden tanha raaten
tera tera tera suroor.... ;)

money money Happy "returns" of the day,cheemaji... :)

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Jaggu.