Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bear Bear -- where are you?

0700 hrs: President Bush said to the nation warning Americans and lawmakers reluctant to pass a historic financial rescue plan that failing to act fast risks wiping out retirement savings, rising foreclosures, lost jobs, closed business and "a long and painful recession." Strait Times also opens 1.12% lower.

0600 hrs: I can understand - after such a hectic times - there has to be a period when they sit aside and watch the destruction they have done to the valuations - like making me poor by 1/6 th of what I started the month with. I can sense their satisfaction. Comes naturally when destruction is the way of life. But for some time - why do I sense a sh*tty times is on the cards for them? Ahh - I forgot - that is to be my guarded secret - just being funny.

So today we did not do particularly bad - did we? we wiped out almost two days of bear effort and that to on what? Just because PM is in US? Warren bought a few shares? Give me a break - but then this is what the stock markets are all about. Ek ank me dukh ke ansu - ek ankh me khushi ke ansu. (tears of sorrow in one eye and of happiness in the other). We are living as bulls one day and bear the other. There is too much happening that I feel could swing the markets. I will try to put all that across.
Firstly - ofcourse is that our PM is in US and the happy ending and "they lived happily ever after" ending to the Nuclear deal is just a few days away. He has made his mark in our history undeniably.
Second - Tata's are out of Singur - a black day in the history of West Bengal (not that they have a particularly bright economic history) - well in long run the absence of red flags in Nano production might do them (read tata) good - What the heck was Tata thinking when he took the decision?
Thirdly - the sky rocket move of Crude has sobered down. It is now at 106.24 some dollars.
The Bail out plan of US govt has been taken with extreme caution but Warren Buffett has bought quite a bit of stocks. 5 Billion Dollars worth. I will not like to go with the cautious US public but with Warren - a personal choice really. Investors appeared unfazed by a larger-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes in August; their focus remained on the bailout. The National Association of Realtors said sales fell by 2.2 percent; sales had been expected to fall by 1.6 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR. The number of unsold homes on the market dropped by 7 percent from a record set in July. It marked the steepest drop in inventory since December 2006.

Now the world markets. Asia ended in green Europe red and US mixed. Nikkei - up .20%, Hang Seng up .47% and Strait Times up 0.04%. FTSE 0.79% red, Dax 0.26% red and CAC 0.61% down. Dow at the moment is trading at 0.08% in red, Nasdaq 0.76% in green and S&P 0.14% in red. It seems as though there is a bright chance that US enters the green territory and ends green. That might just ensure that towards the end of this session of derivatives rollover is good and we continue the winning streak.

On the charts the candle was a small whit candle. It could have been a bearish engulfing candle under normal circumstances - but since it has appeared after no particular trend - it does not have strength to indicate anything particular. The bulls have made another attempt to keep in the middle of the Bollinger bands and have not been very successful as they have slipped down - a wee bit lower. 5 EMA line still trails below the 20 EMA line. The volumes were a little higer than when we have been making black candles. The MACD divergence has further reduced and we may have a bullish crossover. The Mass Index is above 26 and can reach out and indicate a bearish trend in days to come - ending the small - hopeful bullish run we had. RSI looks up - but to what end remains to be seen. TRIX is flatish. On the slow stochastive the red line has gone below the blue line and I hope that it reverses its trend today - or we have a bearish spell again.

So inspite of all the bearish indicators we may have an highly volatile session as US closed flat after being into green from mid session onwards. Bush is scheduled to address the nation shortly on the bailout amid wrangling in congress over the bailout deal. It will have a profound effect on the markets today. Asia meanwhile has opened - Nikkei now is 2% down. Not a good beginning. Let us wait as to how we fare.



geniusjaggu said...

i m back(as bear),paaji...

come on,give me a tight Bear HUG :)

S S Cheema said...

Yeah I can see