Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Just when the doom was around the corner.......

Just when I was sure in hell that the worst will be upon us - the markets rebounded with vigour. Where did they get their 'josh' from? I don't know neither do I care - all I know that this hope would have got many back from the bring of death. Was there something that was unknown? Afterall I saw the same channels that you do and there was fear - fear and fear all around us. Then what happened? If everyone was fearful then who bought into our rally? And is this rally for real? How long will it last? Are the bears done and over? Will the companies that are wholly dependant on US and Europe survive whatever is happening there? Infosys? Suzlon? anyone out there to answer my doubts?

Well the Asia was mixed with Nikkei down 4.12%, Hang Seng 0.76% in green. Europe started out red and ended unquestionably green. FTSe up 2.44%, Dax up 0.4% and Cac up 1.99%. US opened green and they recovered some of the all time high loses they had yesterday. The markets are up green. Dow up 2.6%, Nasdaq up 3.12% and S&P up 3.32%. They have still not reached mid session and there is a long day ahead of them. And on their day depends our times. Atleast they did till day before - and suddenly we were on our own showing our thumb to all.

As far as the candles are concerned - the pattern is "Harami" Harami means 'pregnant' and the long candle yesterday was the mother and the small white candle today its fetus or its baby. It is said that harami is usually not as much of a reversal pattern as hammer, hanging man or engulfing pattern but neverthless.... It is our hope. The bollinger bands are still expanding and the candles including today's candle is still hugging the lower band. The volumes were significantly higher. MACD has not started looking up yet. the divergence is the same as yesterday. Red line trails below the blue line. Mass Index is bad the reversal line is now in the critical band and we are about to get into a bearish reversal. RSI looked up but remains to be bearish. TRIX is still looking down. on Slow Stochastic there is another sign of hope as the red line has sharply moved - as if it wanted to go up and ride the blue line today itself. It is still trailing below the blue line.

I will take no second guesses. Markets will do what they intend to - so will wait for what happens to US tonight and where asia opens for guidance.

My question remains to all those who and make an attempt to answer. US is going down - whom all will they take along with them?

For those who are technically inclined: -

R3 4218
R2 4119
R1 4020
Pivot 3867
S1 3768
S2 3615
S3 3516

Projected high range 3944 to 4069
Projected low range 3863 to 3737
Fib projected high 4035
Fib projected low 3646

Take your picks



geniusjaggu said...

cheemapaji,be a bear,go short at this level...LOL..(just joking paaji...ROLMAO)

Uma said...

where did my comment go? am reposting:

think of markets as a giant spring.
When it is fully extended and you jump on it, you get a free-fall. But there comes a point when, the more you push it down, the more it pushes you up :D

S S Cheema said...

No Uma your comment did not go anywhere. Why should we fall both ways?