Thursday, September 11, 2008

Oil and the markets both lower............. LOL

1358 hrs: Things are not working out at all on the markets. I really do not have any other input except that the FIIs are selling for past few days.

0635 hrs 12 Sep 08: So the doom sayers managed a win - with all the positivity there was gloom on the markets. We cannot say that the bulls did not try hard - but it was just that the bears won. When its a fight - some win - some loose and I was wrong reading a recovery yesterday after a red start. Now we have a real chance to see 4214 levels. maybe not in straight sessions but slowly. But even now there is no clear breakout - do not mistake this fall for three days as a trend - though the fall now has the support at 4214 levels and after that even lower at 3800 levels. I really do hope that we do not see those levels in near future.

Can you beat it - US closed green day before as they thought that Lehman brothers are getting a viable solution for the bail out - and the world does not agree with the US. Asia opened and closed deep red that included us. And then came the Europe that opened green fell to red and managed once again to wipe out deep cuts - but still ending in red. FTSE was 0.89% down, Dax 0.51% red and CAC was 0.81% red. Seeing all this perhaps - US opened red and then recovered well into green Dow up 1.46%, Nasdaq up 1.32% and S&P 1.38%. Now it had to nail in some sense into Asia and Asia opened green Nikkei +0.87% and Strait Times up 1.35%. Well as of past two days US is not in sync with the rest of the world. They feel that the trouble now out in the open can perhaps be dealt with and rest of the world is reeling in pessimism - LOL. Today is the day when our markets can wash the past three days of sins and atone for the same. The Oil is not going anywhere and the green impetus is already present. If the charts show any oversold positions then today may be the day when we recover back into green.

So - let us see what the charts say today. Well the 5 EMA has crossed below the 20 EMA and the Bollinger bands have constricted further. We are very near to the bottom edge of the Bollinger bands. The MACD divergence has become negative but just - the red line and the blue line are almost overlapping. The Mass Index continues its march upwards steadily but slowly - I would love to will it to stop - but cannot. TRIX is absolutely flat - so if not with the bulls - it is not with the bears also. The Slow Stochastic is still bad wherein the red line is below the blue line - both heading past the 50 marker. RSI is another indicator that is not looking good (looking bearish) - so all in all even after yesterday's fall there is still no trend and we are range bound with indicators divided over the true direction.

The policy ideally should be to take positions for the long term with the oscillations be used for making small money - getting the thrill of the markets. Crude will force our markets to wake up and go up. There is already selective buying going on. Tech will benefit from the Rupee weakness. Holiday season is around the corner. Recovery is definite today but the following remains to be seen - firstly recover by how much? secondly can we sustain it? and will there be some impetus for maintaining the lead over the bears. Best of luck - to all who went long yesterday.



Uma said...

bulls will rule...but plenty of bad blood (Reliance) has to be let out of the system. I think the correction in Reliance is healthy.
If the rest of market has gone back 2 years and Reliance is sending shock-waves for making 1-yr low...this is the dead weight that was dragging Nifty down. This one is kicked off, Nifty will automatically rise. Let people laugh and say, how can Nifty go up if reliance is going down...but that is precisely what will happen.