Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Let's do the step forward - one back...

0700hrs 11 Sep: US closes green as expected but Asia begins the day red with Nikkei and Strait Times down more than 1.25%. Dollar still strong and Crude in 102-104 $ range. Waiting for Jaggu to wake up and give us the TRIN. ;-)

2329hrs: Joetom's page updated - for info please. His link is in my blog list.

2115hrs 10 Sep 08 Red was the colour of the day that was arrived at by many and that was what the markets showed us. We are carrying someone else's burden or our own? Asia was down Nikkei ending 0.44% in red, Hang Seng down 2.4% and Strait Times down 1.9%. We were out performers at that in the sense that nifty was 68.45 points down at 1.53% red. Hardly a point of relief but all the same. The Close? .25 points above 4400. So bears finding this a hard nut to crack? Its like a Kho - Kho game now between the bulls and the bears. Europe too ended low but better than Asia - FTSE at 0.90% red, Dax 0.53% red and Cac 0.38% red. Us on the other hand opened green - dipped red and then shot well into green once again. The conviction during the second upswing by US was good and I feel that it may end well into green. Though early and not available - the upswing may be as Lehman Brothers Holdings said it plans to sell a majority stake in its investment management division and spin off commercial real estate assets as the investment bank fights to raise capital. The fourth-largest U.S. investment bank said it has reduced exposure to toxic assets, including cutting its residential mortgage exposure by nearly half, and cut its dividend. SO for the time being we will just have to wait and see.

Now to the charts. The chart for the day is not bad . Why I say it is because inspite of two days of fall the candle is well contained within the white body of the candle made on 8th. So there is a chance that the bulls will strike back tomorrow. The volumes were shade greater than last three days. The 5EMA line still is above the 20 EMA line and that continues to give good indications. The MACD divergence has reduced but remains positive with the red line above the blue. MACD is bullish. There are now three indications that are becoming worrisome. Firstly the Mass Index that has touched 24 - unless it turns back - I remain vary of it indicating trend reversal. RSI is looking down and finally in Slow Stochastic the red line is below the blue line and looks bad. TRIX still looks up.

I am changing the paragraph and continuing to write about a change that I saw today - on the Bollinger bands - they have constricted and in another few days time a strong trend to be established. That trend may be positive or negative - I can take a call and wait - there are 50% chance that the call will be correct and boost my ego - but the fact remains that which side it will be I do not know - but a strong trend is in making. The second reason I am not giving this call is that my mind says it will be a positive breakout - but the idiot boxes are shouting red so loudly that I am actually afraid. If you want to know what my mind say and will not blame me later then - build longs and not short. Just by the way we are in perfect middle of the bands.

The crude could not sustain above 103 and has slipped below to 102.57 $. That remains good. I will try to update this blog tomorrow before the market opens. Singur dust is about to settle down - one way or the other and there now no dearth of the invitations to TATA - WB knows it and I am sure that the solution will be arrived at shortly.



lalit said...

so finally I visited your site sir and I think I will be a regular. In all the technical jargon you actually have not given your opinion on the trend for the next day. Sir your opinion matters not being right or wrong. Dont become NDTV profit.

S S Cheema said...

Hi lalit - welcome - Neither I nor can anyone else give out what will happen today as we are not in a trend where the answers are easy. The market is range bound and dirty. There is no news that supports any side - bulls or the bears. So all the indications are there on a platter for you - but the decision is yours to make. ;-)
Rock on

Uma said...

cheema, I think markets are a lot like politics. what do u think?

Joe tom said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
S S Cheema said...

Maybe a tad worse at the moment. The markets will try to factor in the expected inflation figures - 12.01. It should recover and then the inflation figures - if negative will show tomorrow.