Monday, September 29, 2008

Bottomless pit?..... Or is there a bottom down there?

0530hrs: Help Fire in the Hold, Dow down 6.98%, Nasdaq down 9.14% and S&P down 8.79% as the house rejects the 700Billion bailout plan that left Bush administration scrambling.

2158 hrs: hey guys and gals -- Oil down to 99$ - does anyone here cares?

What a times we are going through - this will remain in our memory for a long times to come. There are no technicals. There is no reasoning - just as (I must add) there was no logic when we were touching one high after the another and all were talking about touching 23,000! The fact is that the additional conditions that have been politically imposed on the Bailout package have not been taken well. There is a limit actually to demands personally speaking - first you mess up with billions of dollars (if not Trillions) - then expect the govt to bail you out - and that to by giving a free hands. Mind you - I am sure that if it had been given without any conditions attatched - still the chances of this market fall were as much as we are seeing now.

Anyway the fact remains that Nikkei dropped 1.26%, Hang Seng 4.29% and Strait Times 2.08%. (I am sure that even though I have not written red in capital letter - it is understood). Europe down in dumps - FTSE about to close and trailing at 4.03% down, Dax down 3.55% and Cac down 3.74%. There is no tick that is even taking a chance of showing green. Dow was all magic. It was kissing 300 points lower and seeing the condition - there seems to be no let down on the red pressure and the markets as of now are just not looking up at all. Want to look at the figures to make your legs weaker - well here we go - take support of your wife/husban/girlfriend. Dow is down 2.53% red and Nasdaq down 3.82% and S&P 3.5% down in red. Mind you the mid session is yet to start and anything can happen as the Bailout vote is yet to be casted. After yo have seen what could have influenced us during the opening / closing and opening tomorrow - let us see our figures. BSE down 506 points or 3.87%, Nifty down 135 points that is 3.39% down. The markets went down - down and down with a very feeble attempt of recovery. May be the shorts being covered and not taken to the next trading day. Noticed Nifty any chance? It broke the 52 week bottom before recovering. The lowest trading today was at 3777.3 and 52 week low was at 3790.2. Are we now trying to go lower than the half of our highest of last 52 Week? Also did you notice that Nifty has breached three supports as given out yesterday by me. Okay the fresh Nifty levels projections are againg given in the end.

Okay - I will talk candles now. the pattern is the one that neither me nor anyone else would normally like to see other than when you are sitting on tons of shorts. It is the "Three Crow Pattern" - infact so much so that it seems perfect out of the copy text book. This alone is strong indicator enough that bad times are upon us. today again we have breached the lower end of the Bollinger bands and the candles are firmly hugging the lower line - needless to say but the bands are continuing to expand giving wide berth to more downside. The volumes on nifty were higher. MACD negative divergence is increasing. Red line at this rate does not have a chance to beat Blue line. Mass Index showed signs to easing out yesterday but today it has again swung up and is going to the danger zone. TRIX is purely negative - looking down. RSI is bearish and Slow Stochastic red line is way below the blue line. So here we are - as per my sense - there is not even a single indication that gives us hope. All the same I am sure that the markets reaction to selective news can be phenomenal. Now all we have to do is just to wait for some good news to fall from the heavens in our laps.

The Nifty Pivot points calculations are as under:-

R3 4217.8
R2 4095.2
R1 3972.6
Pivot 3874.95
S1 3752.35
S2 3654.7
S3 3532.1

Tomorrow's projections
Projected High Range 3923.78 - 4033.9
Projected low Range 3851.08
Fib Projected high 4057.46
Fib Projected low 3717.39

Will try to update tomorrow - but have another hectic day tomorrow.



Uma said...

cheema, just get into a straddle or a strangle and go on vacation.
Let the world decide what it wants to do with itself. I'm not bothered in the least, unless there's a missile aimed directly at my house.
My advice is Tata Steel strangle just cause it's so cheap!
When it was trading at 450, I bought PA 430 at 21 bucks, CA 460 at 25 bucks and bye bye you f***ing market. Screw yourself any way. I'm tired of worrying about how much chidambaram, bush etc etc are going to screw the world and whether we're gonna run out of crude or gold or sugar or cumin or coca cola. The hell I care, as long as I make money. I didn't start trading to work hard, I wanted easy money. And I will find it! No matter which stock they're offering 40 buck strangles, I'm going to trade it and make my buck.

Uma said...

Today's closing prices:
PA 430 : Rs.19
CA 460: RS. 21.75

Strangle for 40 bucks!
and it's moving in line with Nifty now.

Amit said...

U.S. House Rejects $700 Billion Financial-Rescue Plan

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House rejected a $700 billion financial-rescue plan intended to restore confidence in the nation's banking system, dealing a blow to government efforts to contain a lending crisis.

The House rejected by a vote of 228 to 205 the measure to authorize the biggest government intervention in the markets since the Great Depression.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 458.3 points, or 4.1 percent, at 2:20 p.m. New York time.

S S Cheema said...

Uma and Amit - as always after seeing US closing yesterday - there is no hope in the near future of any recovery - there are no technicals or fundamentals that will work today. If we don't believe in our systems then we are doomed anyways.

Uma said...

cheema, I just pray that everything works out for us!

Uma said...

We have already fallen over 7% in last 3 sessions, which makes up for Dow.

S S Cheema said...

Uma: the sense is that if we close below 3700 then a 300 point drop is in the cards. I don't know but this is what is doing rounds - this so called recovery is because shorts have been banned in asia.

Uma said...

Shorts banned in Asia?? Which newspaper are you reading Sir?!