Sunday, September 7, 2008

Give me one reason to be bearish...... and I will give you ten to be bullish..

08:20 The Asian markets had opened exactly as expected and they are trading on an average 3.5% up. Prepare for a rollicking time ahead. As they say - make hay while sun shines. Psst ... there is a small appeal at the end of the page too. Please do give it a moment.

It was a nail bitting suspense. I lost my sleep as NSG went on to debate the India specific safeguards. It was nail bitting as the five nations that opposed the draft - had the capability to stall the proceedings and an opportunity like this would then might not have presented itself for a long time to come. Back home the vultures were waiting and wishing this deal to go bad as they wanted political mileage ".... I told you so, US was never interested or I knew that this deal would never see the light of the day". What this deal has given to me and you: -
(a) A promise of a future without power cuts.
(b) Acceptance that India's stand all along on NPT was right.
(c) India has come of age.
(d) Do not do the mistake of trusting China, they are what they were in 1962.

This is just the beginning. There would be a lot more to come in terms of commerce and opportunities that cannot be listed in a few words. I would like to waste some more time of yours and take quote from Times Of India "...making a strategic error of mammoth proportions, China overplayed its hand by opposing the waiver at the 11th hour. Whether anybody admits it or not, China's last-minute shenanigans will profoundly affect its relations with India. If the Beijing Olympics was China's coming-out party, the NSG waiver was India's and China threw a spanner in the works."

Okay now ... the Global Cues - Asia closed as we did - down deep red. Nikkei was down unbelievable - down down and down it has gone - 2.75%, Hang Seng 2.24% and Strait times down 1.97%. Europe was down 2.5% on an average - FTSE down 2.26% (best of the lot), Dax down 2.42% and CAC down 2.49%. US opened red but managed a flattish green closing with Dow up 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.14% and S&P 500 up 0.44%. The fact remains that the US ignored the fact that Gustav did not manage to inflict damage as much as Catrina did and oil has been showing weakness settling around 106 $. By and large US govt and NOGs responded much better than before to take action and that too limited the damage that might have otherwise resulted from Gustav. That proves that the investor is vary of the financial and the economic data coming out of US. In the coming days our nuclear deal should cheer the markets ideally. Asia opening on Monday should be positive.

On the charts nothing much has really changed. We are in the middle of Bollinger bands and the width is almost the same as before. 5 EMA line remains above the 20 EMA and that is good considering last two days of black candles. On MACD the red line and the blue line are almost overlapping. The negative divergence is very small. Mass Index line continues to climb up - that is not good but till it shows change in trend - it remains good. RSI is bullish - but needs an injection to boost up its morale. Slow Stochastic is another one showing a negative divergence with the red line below blue line but dropping. Other than this TRIX remains at 1 - undecided which way to go.

As far as our markets are concerned - the negativity of the NSG deal is out by and large. Now ideally the lower crude, weaker rupee, stable govt and lower inflation should be accounted for by the market and I do expect a good opening and a wonderful bullish session - after all what are the negativities in the market now? Operators ? LOL - For the first time since they kicked me in Jan I am laughing this laugh as I now feel there is little they will be able to do. So if retail has bought into last few days fall then the chances are that the rally will carry them to new highs.

Best of luck to all and I will try to update once the Asian markets open on Monday morning.

I have a small appeal to all those come and read the blog - please do leave a rating - and if you do read it often then please leave your mark by telling me that you follow. It will give me immense satisfaction and encouragement if you can do so as that all that I am writing this blog for. Believe me there is no monetary benefit involved. Wish you all luck again.



Anonymous said...

Bulls must lift this to 4600 in one day failing which the bears will get their chance again. The threat of the bears is always there since the rest of the mkts have been lukewarm at best.

S S Cheema said...

I agree that the fear will always remain - but then there is a limit to it also. Second feather in cap is Singur getting sorted out.
This too is a positive development.