Friday, February 27, 2009

Story of my day tracking the markets… Update for 27th Feb 09

Everyday I get up early as my job demands it. If I did not have a commitment at night then I try to update the blog by the previous night – mostly fairly late at night – and if I do have a commitment like night flying and some late evening get together (they are fairly common) Then I try to read the charts and update in the morning. Then there are days like today when BSNL refuses to connect me and I wait for the connectivity for me to read whatever little research I can and then post the article. 24 hours of no net connectivity was what it was like today and that is the reason I just could not post a message – leave aside a sorry message for not updating. After that I generally have flying in the morning that I finish around 10 – and after debriefing the pilots I go and try to come online to see where the markets are headed to. I then open the ICICI and indiabulls to see can track my favourite stocks. Now after a glance and once again seeing my blog / posting messages on other blogs I am off to office work. Then I go home around 2:30-3:00 and see the markets before closing. THe way the things are going – frankly I am confused. I cannot and will not speak for others – but right from jhunjhunwalla to all others on the idiot box are also changing their statements on hourly basis. Weak now, Now weaker – showing resilience, some strength returning and blah blah blah. daily 27 Feb 09The fact of the matter remains that no one really knows. The day the markets were dropping and giving red candles – I really felt that there is strength and resilience in the markets, now when they are inching up – I feel there is weakness in the market. The gold is at all time high and I feel that it has reached somewhat unwarranted levels. The crude is at such low levels that I feel it is unwarranted. What I feel is that gold should correct down and as it comes down some of the money will enter the markets and the liquidity will improve – however on the other hand the crude should see better days ahead and should swing up raising fresh worries of increasing fuel bill here along with fuelling  inflation. Well all this is hypothetical and only time can prove or disprove it.

I had expected a weak market today as yesterday – though we had a white candle – that feel good factor was missing. Then we had a weak session. the markets recovered today towards the close – and GOD only knows what we have in store for tomorrow. The Global cues are like this --- Nikkei closed flat after remaining the entire day in green to close 0.04% in red. Hang Seng was down by 0.85% and Strait Times was up by 0.04%. Japan is the worst at the moment as I see it. Europe opened green and finished green – FTSE was up by 1.73%, Dax up 2.51% and CAC up 1.78%. The US markets are topsy turvy to say the least. They were green – went red – went green and are presently red as Obama has pulled back the curtain over the 10 Year Budget plan. He has by and large signalled that they will have sweeping Health reforms and the fiscal deficit will be reduced. That he says will be partly funded by increase of taxes collected from high-income Americans. As always it will be interesting to see the US closing tonight.

Let us see the technicals – There was a nice white candle on nifty. The bodies of the last two white candles are so posed that we can take them as a single big white candle. Both inclusive – the candle pierce the black candle that we saw on Feb 20th. We have actually moved away from the lower end of the Bollinger band and the 5 EMA is looking up – may attempt a 20 EMA crossover. The volumes were fairly high and most can be contributed to the square off/rollover to the next session. The 20 EMA is around 2820-25 level so that is how – we will be comfortable only if the markets cross that level. On ADX the –DI has blipped down and the green too has blipped down. The fight between the red and green will go on for some time to come. The negative divergence of the MACD has reduced somewhat. RSI is looking up suddenly and seems bullish. TRIX still looks down and that is not a good sign. The Slow stochastic that were in the oversold territory are now mid way to becoming overbought – so make hay while the sun shines. There is all the possibility for a good day tomorrow with better participation of the markets.

Let us see the pivot levels because at the crossroads where we are – it will take a sudden and an interesting turn – whenever it does..

R3 2863
R2 2837
R1 2811
Pivot 2771
S1 2745
S2 2705
S3 2679
Projected High Range 2791 to 2824
Projected Low Range 2770 to 2737
Fib Projected High 2814
Fib Projected Low 2713

In all this I almost forgot to mention that inflation is now at 3.36% and we may have some more measures just before the ban for elections come into vogue. That means there is some good news still in the air. Best of luck for tomorrow.


Tuesday, February 24, 2009

We still have a chance…. Update for 25 Feb 09

There are reasons that I would like to list before I try to protect the stand I have taken today. Firstly I have been of the opinion for some time now that this fall is unwarranted – we cannot fall unhindered even if we were doing as bad as we are doing now a days. But I also agree that the markets have a mind of their own and it did not stop climbing when everyone was hoarse calling out that the climb is not keeping pace with the pace of growth. All the same at the moment we are oversold, the volumes have been low, we are overly concerned with the happenings in the US and the rest of the world, we have an elections at our door steps and the present regime gives less weightage to the economic concerns than the populist concerns. All the same we do not have a negative growth. Our internal demand, development continues. we still remain to be agrarian society where too much exports do not effect us like China and the list goes on and on… All this is right but the fact is that we are seeing lower tops and lower bottoms. The earlier range in which we used to play was 3200 – 2900, now if we can play the range 3000 – 2600 – it will be a great miracle.

Today the candle we have made is Dragonfly doji. It is a fairly strong reversal signal. It indicates that the control has shifted from the Bears to the bears. Now that would be great. But all the same take this with a pinch of salt. We are into the last few days of settlement and that could have let some pressure off. The second reason that I feel (and do not see as a major concern to others) is that the lot sizes have increased considerably. In these times of low volumes and low liquidity I feel that the rollovers may suffer. If that be so then a percentage of the shorts will have to be covered and not carried forward. That would lead to some sort of bounce. That coupled with somewhat stable to good international cues can ensure that we go up a bit higher and trigger a wave of buying that can sustain us above 3200. Hypothesis and nothing else but all the same a scenario in front of all of you.daily 24 Feb 09

The global cues … Asia remained weak and we saw red all the way home. Nikkei was down 1.46%, Hang Seng down 2.86% and Strait Times down 1%. There was a chance perhaps of better day but the Europe basically dashed the hopes. FTSE closed 0.89%, DAX 1.03% and CAC down 0.73%. Does is not seem to somebody that the markets around the world are hanging around at levels – wherein at the first signs of recovery can give a good push up?There was a statement by Bernanke wherein he has lighted a glimmer of hope by saying that if all goes well then the recovery to the US economy can take place in 2010. The markets that had opened flat – gone green – fell to flat line again rallied up. Since then the higher ground has been lost but US is still green all the same. hope like hell that it remains this way.

As I have mentioned earlier the candlestick is a Dragonfly Doji and it represents reversal after a fall so that is one good condition. We are now officially trailing the lower edge of the Bollinger bands. The bottom touched it. 5 EMA is below the 20 EMA and 20 EMA is below the 50 EMA so a long way to go before the trend changes. Volumes were low – but a bit higher than day before. ADX is purely bearish. MACD continues with its negative divergence – but I am happy that the divergence is not too much. RSI is negative and Slow Stochastic has the red line crossing over the blue line – but still in oversold territory. TRIX is still looking down.

Wanna see how the day went past? Well the trade was fairly simple. We opened just below the S1 level and threatened once to break to the S 2 levels but crossed the S1 levels towards the Pivot point and thereafter never looked back. We never really test the Pivot but neither we saw the lows seen earlier during the day.Picture1

The pivot levels for tomorrow should hold a lot of meaning because the good times will be indicated by the charts before they happen.

R3 2815 as against 2869 on Friday
R2 2787
R1 2760
Pivot 2718 as against 2744 on Friday
S1 2691
S2 2649
S3 2622 as against 2620 on Friday
Projected High Range 2739 to 2774
Projected Low Range 2718 to 2683
Fib Projected High 2764
Fib Projected Low 2658

That is all for the day – the US is hovering around +1 % still so a positive closing may happen and help us further. Best of luck to everyone – cheers.


Monday, February 23, 2009

Iceberg Ahead! Update for 24th Feb 09

Will it sink out boat? against all odds I remain of a view that the iceberg is seen and we will be able to make our way around it without too much of a problem. The volumes are thinning by the day. Probably I do not have the kind of experience to read into this – but am quite sure that we do not have the kind of the volumes or the sell pressure to break the lower points seen earlier. After all if they (read bears) are to break the previous lows then they have to put in some more life and money behind the effort than what we have been seeing for last few days of candles. The last week has been brutal but that ‘go for the kill’ was still just not there. The fact remains that we did not venture into any fresh low levels so far. But yes – what it has done is that it has turned the mood bad with that lingering bad taste.

We had a day off and that is the reason I took some time off and just freaked out without bothering for good or bad. Saw a couple of movies including “Delhi 6”. The Asian markets gave a mixed verdict today. Somehow the erstwhile strong economies are the ones that are weak at the moment. Nikkei closed down 0.54% – never saw green actually. Hang Seng on the other hand opened green and then remained green thorough out to close at the best levels for the day – up 3.75%. The Strait Times too closed up in green at 2.24% up. Europe is yet to close shop for the day – they started out green but had fallen to the zero line by the mid session and thereafter had tried to recover – failed and now hovering around  - FTSE down 0.57%, DAX down 1.21% and CAC down 0.01%. Surprisingly all the financial sectors were trading with handsome gains inspite of the indices nose-diving. US had the futures trading in green and respectfully so, the markets opened green and nosedived. Dow now is 0.62%, Nasdaq down 1.64% and S&P down 0.97% down. There is nowhere to go as of now. Red seems to be the favourite colour.daily 20 Feb 09

As far as our candles and technicals are concerned – they were keeping safe so far but seems to have given ground completely to the bears. The markets tried to touch the lower level of Bollinger bands and failed as the market tried to recover somewhat. The lower level of Bollinger band is in anycase not so far out that the same cannot happen tomorrow. 5 EMA is well below – the 20 EMA and 20 EMA is well below the 50 EMA. The volumes are – as I have mentioned a little while ago also – P*ss poor. Where is the money – gold? give me a break – like crude gold will also tumble and people will get trapped hoping that they will get to see prices at which they procured it before they die of old age. ADX has suddenly switched sides after the last black candle and that is not good. MACD is with a negative divergence – but just so. RSI is bad and bearish. Slow Stochastic shows totally oversold position so some relief can be expected in last few days of this feb series. TRIX has finally had enough and changed sides with the bears showing a downside. Don’t you all feel that we need a break?  We are still in that so called narrow band and there is no breakout so far.

See how we traded on Friday – opened below the Support 2, broke Support 3 – and then the support on the upside became a resistance and we fell like a sack of hot potatos. The only saving grace – if there was one – we closed above the Support 3. I do not calculate levels below the S3 – it is not everyday that S3 is violated.

Here are the pivot levels for whatever they are worth:

R3 2869 as against 2837 on Friday
R2 2824
R1 2780
Pivot 2744 as against 2786 on Friday
S1 2700
S2 2664
S3 2620 as against 2735 on Friday
Projected High Range 2762 to 2802
Projected Low Range 2775 to 2735
Fib Projected High 2810
Fib Projected Low 2657Picture1

Okay – here is the gist. Technicals say we go down, Volumes say that the will to break lower is not there. And my heart say we go up. Why do I feel that I may be the looser in this guessing game? you wanna bet? Please vote.

In any case – some data – GTL has given a Bullish MACD crossover. The bearish MACD crossover include L&T, AXIS Bank, BHEL, JSW Steel, Hotel Leela venture, ONGC – the list is endless actually. Only saving grace is the fact perhaps that these bearish crossovers are on lower than average volumes.

Have a great day…


Thursday, February 19, 2009

The present… and the Future Update for 20 Feb 09

I am really wondering whether the amount of work I am putting in on studying the markets for whatever they are worth is worthwhile the effort. A lot of people are as it is out of the markets and the way the things are going there seems to be no end of the bad times in the stocks around the world. The participation has trickled down like any thing. The only people who are making risk free money in the markets are the brokers. The times are bad indeed. No one – even the markets perhaps know where to go from here. On day a point up and one day a point down. The charm of making – or even loosing money in the markets is just not there. The entire day if you spent staring the markets and the markets are not even kind enough to move 50 points worth on nifty – is the sign of the tired and bored markets. The markets are still stuck to the narrow band. It was perhaps a misnomer that the markets are trying to break the narrow trading band they have been caught up in. I do agree that this band has become so predictable that it can be played by the traders but the width of the markets are so small that it would be a pain I guess. On day a point up and the other day a point down. So I will not waste any time and get one with the markets.

The global cues are as confused as we are in these times. The good news is just not there and the bad news has become too boring for the markets to react on. Asia has both the red and the green ticks. Nikkei closed 0.31% up, Hang Seng Flat at 0.06% green and Strait Times down 1.31%. Europe followed the suite with FTSE up 0.29% , Dax up 0.24% and CAC down 0.05%. US opened green but now in its mid session has slipped in red and is trading – Dow down 0.58%, Nasdaq down 0.7% and S&P down 0.39%. With the kind of swings that we are seeing in the markets it is extremely difficult to predict where the markets are headed towards and it will be only after the markets end that we will come to know how exactly the markets performed.daily 19 Feb 09

The second day of the candle has again been a small white one but believe me I am not impressed at the moment. Combining the bodies of both the candles is not enough to pierce the last black candle we had so it conveys nothing really. Next we are in the middle of the Bollinger bands and they too do not point out in any direction and so the markets can face and move a few steps in any direction they wish. 5 EMA is below the 20 EMA and 20 EMA is below the 50 EMA so Negativity in the markets remain. The ADX is bearish but as I have been saying so many times before that when the markets start falling the ADX line loses strength. So I remain firm with my thought process. the markets should go to higher levels first before touching the lows expected out of it. MACD is negative and bearish – TRIX is flat but perhaps looking down a wee bit. RSI has looked up again after being beaten down. In the last three months the RSI has not really collapsed below the 30 marker and that is good. Volumes? Don’t even ask me. They are thinner than the thinnest milk delivered by my “Doodh wala” ever. Just falling every day.


The entire game i now of 30-50 points on nifty and on the last two days the markets are just fighting it out to protect the pivot levels. The range today was between the R1 (never touched) and the pivot – where there  was a half hearted attempt to break it.

Let us see the pivot levels for whatever they are worth:

R3 2837 as against 2876 yesterday
R2 2821
R1 280
Pivot 2786 as against 2772 yesterday
S1 2770
S2 2751
S3 2735 as against 2669 yesterday
Projected High Range 2795 to 2813
Projected Low Range 2791 to 2773
Fib Projected High 2811
Fib Projected Low 2757

Best of luck for tomorrow – there may be some move tomorrow as it is the last trading day of the week and then we have a week end. Cheers.

And hey do not miss the laugh in the post below this one.


Effects of Recession

  Ali Baba and the Forty thieves is now Ali Baba thirty thieves...10 were laid off!

  Batman and Robin is now Batman and Pedro. Batman fired Robin and hired Pedro because Pedro was willing to work twice the hours at the same rate!!

  Ironman now "air-pooling" with Superman to save fuel costs?!!

  Women finally marrying for love! And not money!

   Q: What's the difference between an investment banker and a large pizza?
  A: A large pizza can feed a family of four.
  Q: Why have Dubai real estate agents stopped looking out of the window in the morning?
  A: Because otherwise they'd have nothing to do in the afternoon.
  Q: What's the difference between an American and a Ethiopian?
  A: In a few weeks, nothing.

  The credit crunch is getting bad isn't it? I mean, I let my brother borrow $10 a couple of week's back, it turns out I'm now America's third biggest




Is that a breather… before the storm? Update for 19 Feb 09

The markets that seemed to have dive nose down yesterday on the global cues - did not heed to anyone and closed in green. First we attempted to break the range on the upside and then on the down side – but what has happened is that we have for some reason - known to the market and market alone – played in that narrow range. The weak global cues did make the markets open in red but swung wildly led by the reliance. The swing in Sensex was almost 190 points. The reality – that has lost favour since some time now gained and the Banking that was becoming the pet sector lost badly yesterday.

Meanwhile in Asia Nikkei hit the lowest in the last four months on back of the financial stocks and daily 18 Feb 09the worries as to how European banks and the credit concerns are hurting the property firms. In any case the in addition to the worsening Japanese economy there is also political uncertainty after the finance minister resigned. The Europe opened flat – went red and then closed flat. FTSE down 0.68%, Dax down 0.28% and CAC down 0.04%. The US also traded and closed indecisive with DOW 0.04% in green,Nasdaq down 0.18% and S&P down 0.1%. Now we once again await the effect of global cues on Asia and on India in particular.

On the candles though the candle was white – it could not pierce the day before’s black candle half way so it really cannot be taken as sign of strength. Only if we do somewhat better than yesterday – and if today’s candle supports this white candle can be taken as a reversal of the down trend we saw last two day. If not then it will indicate a continuation of the downtrend with a breather here. SO finally the much anticipated breakout did not happen on either direction. The up swing takes days to build up and fizzles out in a second and the down move with aggressive candles also die down at the same rate. We are now below the middle of the Bollinger Bands with 5 EMA firmly below the 20 EMA so that part is bearish. The ADX is bearish with the –DI above the +DI. Only thing – that I have been observing and ofcourse putting across here is that whenever we have the markets go down the ADX does not show the same vigour that it shows going up. On MACD we have a tick of negative divergence so it is bearish. RSI is surprisingly looking up and TRIX absolutely flat. We will have to wait for Jaggu to wake up and give us the TRIN. Ofcourse you can reach his blog by clicking his name and he wakes up generally just before the markets open. Picture1

As we can see from the chart the markets did not do anything at all yesterday oscillating around the Pivot. The Support was way down around 2733 and the market never got around to test those levels. The yesterday’s struggle with FIIs and DIIs was – FIIs sold 288.45 Cr worth and DIIs bought 102.34Cr worth. See the pulls and pushes? anyway take this with the fact that on Nifty 50 Advances and decline ratio was 1. (25 Advances and 25 Declines) Ah! so that was the reason for us to be flat.

The pivot levels for 19th is as given below: -

R3 2876 as against 2951 yesterday
R2 2842
R1 2809
Pivot 2772 as against 2793 yesterday
S1 2739
S2 2702
S3 2669 as against 2636 yesterday
Projected High Range 2791 to 2826
Projected Low Range 2786 to 2751
Fib Projected High 2825
Fib Projected Low 2716

If under yesterday’s conditions we did not fall then I do expect a positive day today with an attempt to eat into some of the losses we had on the two bad days. Best of luck everyone. I am trying hard to study some options strategy – Hopefully will be able to put across something meaningful within this week for action


Wednesday, February 18, 2009

The Stock Market Pain… How long? Update for 18Feb 09

For a long time to come – would be the right answer I guess. The real sucker’s rally the past few days to this fall turned out to be. Frankly I read this rally wrong by exactly two days. Ofcourse had I been reading it right then I would be just making money and not getting kicks by writing about the markets. There is nothing at all to talk about. I heard a commentator say there there is no negative stimulus for the markets to seek lower levels. Really wish he had seen the US markets in the present state.

The global cues are nothing to talk home about. Asia’s fall pales in comparison with what the US is undergoing at present. Nikkei ended a descent 1.35% down, Hang Seng 3.79% and Strait Times down 2.55%. Europe opened red as expected but kept a steady trend downwards with help of US futures data to close very near to their lowest levels. FTSE was down 2.43%, DAX down 3.44% and CAC down 2.94%. US opened red and almost immediately dropped lower – now just past its mid session – trading – Dow down 3.61%, Nasdaq down 4.08% and S&P down 4.28%. I really wonder where the US will close and how the markets here would open. Red seems to be the favourite colour. The S&P is below 800.

daily 17 Feb 09Okay here I go to the candles sticks and I will try to be as truthful to the candles as I see. Today was second day of a huge black candle facing downwards that have in two days eaten what the markets gained since end of last month. THe 5 EMA not only could not cross the 50 EMA – that was my feeling earlier – it is infact now ready to drop below the 20 EMA. The candles have sliced below the mid of bollinger bands and that is bad. The volumes were low. The ADX has turned bearish with the +DI crossing below the –DI. now the point that I would still like to put forward is that the strength of the downward momentum is not what it was for – when the markets were going up. MACD is just about to show the negative divergence. RSI is looking down and bad. The  Slwo Stochastics are heading towards the oversold zone – but have another day or two before reaching there. The TRIX is still looking up – and that does not surprise me – I would still say that the drop – for whatever worth it is – is not with substance. But since the Two black candles are giving the direction and the fact that global cues are as bad as they can be – another day or two of black candles will continue.

Let us see how the markets traded during the day. They opened below the S1 levels and then continued to fall with the markets briefly breaching the S2 levels but then stabilising and closing above the S2 levels.







The pivot levels for 18th is as given below: -

R3 2951 as against 3067 yesterday
R2 2890
R1 2830
Pivot 2793 as against 2888 yesterday
S1 2733
S2 2696
S3 2636 as against 2693 yesterday
Projected High Range 2812 to 2860
Projected Low Range 2847 to 2799
Fib Projected High 2880
Fib Projected Low 2730

We held on to an important support of 2750 and tomorrow it will be interesting to see if we can hold on to the 2700 levels – the S2 being 2696. Best of luck for tomorrow.


Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Gist of the budget…

Firstly it has been copied from the Rueters India
Secondly the update is in the article below this one...
* "Conditions in the year ahead are not likely to be normal and, therefore, the high fiscal deficit is inevitable. We will return to (fiscal) targets once the economy is restored to its recent trend growth path."
* "Extraordinary economic circumstances merit extraordinary measures. Now is the time for such measures.
"Our government decided to relax FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act) targets in order to provide much needed demand boost to counter the situation created by the global financial meltdown.
"Indeed, depending on the response of the domestic economy and the revival of the global economy, there may be a need to consider additional fiscal measures when the regular budget is presented by the new government after the elections.
" However, the medium term objective must be to revert to the path of fiscal consolidation at the earliest."
* "Since the scope for revenue mobilisation is bound to be limited in a period of economic slowdown, any increase in plan expenditure will increase the fiscal deficit.
"Indeed, we may have to consider additional plan expenditure of anything from 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent of the GDP and gear up our systems accordingly."
* "The recent developments have also brought out the need for accelerating the pace of policy reforms, including in the financial sector, to make the economy more competitive.
"The economic regulatory and oversight systems have to be made more efficient and effective to bring the economy back to the 9 percent growth path at the earliest."
* Total expenditure seen at 9.532 trillion rupees ($195 billion)
* Plan expenditure seen at 2.851 trillion rupees
* Non-plan expenditure seen at 6.681 trillion rupees
* Defence allocation increased to 1.417 trillion rupees
* Food, fertilizer and petroleum subsidies seen at 955.79 billion rupees.
* Gross budgetary support seen at 2.85 trillion rupees
* Total tax receipts, at current taxation levels, seen at 6.713 trillion rupees
* Net tax revenue seen at 5 trillion rupees
* Corporate tax receipts seen at 2.44 trillion rupees
* Income tax receipts seen at 1.35 trillion rupees
* Excise receipts seen at 1.11 trillion rupees
* Customs duty receipts seen at 1.10 trillion rupees
* Tax-to-GDP ration estimated at 11.1 percent, rising to 14.4 percent in 2010/11 and 15 percent in 2011/12
* Revenue expenditure seen at 8.481 trillion rupees
* Revenue deficit seen at 4 percent of GDP. Hopes to wipe out revenue deficit by 2010/11
* Fiscal deficit seen at 5.5 percent of GDP.
* Gross market borrowing seen at 3.62 trillion rupees
* Net market borrowing seen at 3.09 trillion rupees
* Expects to raise 11.2 billion rupees from stake sales
* Profits, dividends from state-run firms seen at 369.85 billion rupees
* Extends interest subsidy of 2 percent on pre- and post-shipment credit for textiles, carpets, leather, gem & jewellery, marine products and small and medium enterprises, till Sept. 30, 2009
* To recapitalise public sector banks over next two years to help maintain capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of 12 percent
* To continue providing farmers interest subsidy for short-term crop loans upto 300,000 rupees at 7 percent per year
* Social security nets need to be strengthened.
* Rural job schemes to get 301 billion rupees in 2009/10.
* Rural health spending 120.7 billion rupees.
* Midday meals scheme for schools to cost 80 billion rupees.
* Urban renewal spending in 2009/10 at 118.4 billion rupees.
* Rural sanitation spending seen at 12 billion rupees for next financial year.
REVIEW OF 2008/09:
* Economy seen growing at 7.1 pct
* Fiscal deficit seen at 6 pct of GDP against previously targeted 2.5 pct
* Revenue deficit seen at 4.4 pct of GDP against previously targeted 1 pct
* April-November 2008 foreign direct investment up an annual 45 percent at $23.3 billion
* Total expenditure seen higher at 9.010 trillion from earlier estimate of 7.509 trillion
* Plan expenditure seen higher at 2.830 trillion from earlier estimate of 2.434 trillion
* Non-tax revenue seen higher at 962.03 billion rupees from previous estimate of 957.85 billion rupees
* Tax collections seen lower at 6.279 tillion rupees from previous estimate of 6.877 trillion rupees. Shortfall on fiscal measures taken to counter impact of the global slowdown on the Indian economy
* Revenue deficit seen higher at 4.4 percent of GDP, from earlier target of 1 percent of GDP
* Fiscal deficit seen rising to 6 percent of GDP, from earlier target 2.5 percent of GDP
* Outlook for foodgrain production encouraging despite high base of 230 million tonnes produced in 2007/08, on normal rainfall
* Weathered the crisis of inflation, but no room for complacency
* Foreign direct investment into India rose an annual 45 percent to $23.3 billion between April and November 2008
* Total debt waiver and debt relief so far amounting to 653 billion rupees, covering 360 million farmers
* National Investment Fund corpus at 18.15 billion rupees as of Dec. 31, 2008
* Non-performing assets of public sector banks down to 2.3 percent as on March 31, 2008


Tic Tac Toe… Update for 17th Feb 09

Did we expect too much from the budget (call it interim, vote on account or anything) – the answer is yes and when we found out that there is nothing that the govt plans to do at the moment – the disappointment was equivalent to 100 nifty points. The point now is – is this a trigger for going down and testing new levels or 100 odd points more and the markets will start looking for something else from  the govt pre elections ban. This debate will go on for some time to come and where it eventually takes us – we have to do nothing but wait and watch. Seen the statistics? The FIIs sold 45.33Cr and DII bought 189.52Cr (provisional data) – Now Now – then why did we do the fall thing? The advance decline ratio too was bad with 232 advances and 957 declines, 38 unchanged  with the AD ratio 0.2424. All this is fine but still I am – or let us say was pretty sure that the market had some steam left to move up. So just let’s wait and see. The recession is here and a reality – we cannot ignore. Probably we had too high an expectations from the budget. The deficit has grown, there is expenditure only in Defence and some Farm SOPS that have been the worthwhile proposals. The UPA did this exercise only perhaps to highlight their achievements. All the same I still feel we still have a chance to settle down and see decent levels on the upside perhaps. daily 16 Feb 09

The Asian markets were moderately down and so was Europe. The markets in US remain closed so that part of the input is missing. Asia has opened weak with Nikkei hovering at –1.2% in red, Hang Seng down 1.93% and Strait Times down 0.71%.

The candles yesterday was big and black and on candle ate away the good work done by white candles since Feb 6th. The volumes were the same or perhaps slightly less than Friday. The ADX is still bullish – so lage raho munnabhai – might work. The MACD divergence is positive – but at this rate we will soon see a negative divergence. The RSI is looking down and has crossed below the 50 marker. Slow Stochastic is with the red line below the blue line and both the lines well out of the overbought zone. This all is okay – but what should we derive out of all this? I frankly feel that we will get over the budget blues and after seeing an odd day of negative closing may again start going up. The markets as of now are suppressed more than warranted and should go up a bit before falling – and ofcourse the manipulators can definitely come up with some more reasons as to why the we should go up – like looking forward to some measures before the election commission ban an doling out populist schemes.

The pivot levels for today are as give under: -

R3 3067 as against 3042 yesterday
R2 2994
R1 2921
Pivot 2888 as against 2937 yesterday
S1 2807
S2 2766
S3 2693 as against 2833 yesterday
Projected High Range 2900 to 2957
Projected Low Range 2948 to 2891
Fib Projected High 2984
Fib Projected Low 2807

So where are we headed to today? (frankly – I would have loved to say –GOD Knows) but I am sure that would not be acceptable so I feel that we should open negative or flat and recover throughout the rest of the day. Now now – let us see how it works out.


Monday, February 16, 2009

How many zeros in a billion???….. Read this – it is worth it.

This is a copy of the mail circulating in the US – so please correlate it to our context.

This is too true to be funny...

The next time you hear a politician use the word 'billion' in a casual manner, think about whether you want the 'politicians' spending YOUR tax money. A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of its releases.


A billion seconds ago it was 1959.


A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.


A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.


A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.


A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

While this thought is still fresh in our mind... let's take a look at New Orleans .... It's amazing what you can learn with some simple division.

Louisiana Senator, Mary Landrieu (D) is presently asking Congress for 250 BILLION DOLLARS

to rebuild New Orleans .. Interesting number... what does it mean?


Well... if you are one of the 484,674 residents of New Orleans (every man, woman, and child) you each get $516,528.


Or... if you have one of the 188,251 homes in New Orleans , your home gets $1,329,787.


Or... if you are a family of four... your family gets $2,066,012.

Imagine, now $700 billion bailing out banks in the US .  That's enough to fund complete medical care for every man, woman and child currently alive in the US for 11 years!! 50 billion to bail out the auto industry??? Washington, D.C. & Ottawa ON.

< HELLO!!! >

Are all your calculators broken??

Accounts Receivable Tax

Building Permit Tax

CDL License Tax

Cigarette Tax

Corporate Income Tax

Dog License Tax

Federal Income Tax , Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)

Fishing License Tax

Food License Tax

Fuel Permit Tax

Gasoline Tax

Hunting License Tax

Inheritance Tax

Inventory Tax

IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)

IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)

Liquor Tax

Luxury Tax

Marriage License Tax

Medicare Tax

Property y Tax

Real Estate Tax

Service charge taxes

Social Security Tax

Road Usage Tax (Truckers)

Sales Taxes

Recreational Vehicle Tax

School Tax

State Income Tax

State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)

Telephone Federal Excise Tax

Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax upon Tax

Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Tax

Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax

Telephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax

Telephone State and Local Tax

Telephone Usage Charge Tax

Utility Tax

Vehicle License Registration Tax

Vehicle Sales Tax

Watercraft Registration Tax

Well Permit Tax

Workers Compensation Tax

Income Tax

Everything Tax


Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago... and our nation was the most prosperous in the world. We had absolutely no national debt... We had the largest middle class in the world.. and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.

What happened? Can you spell 'politicians'?


Sunday, February 15, 2009

So - where was I? Update for 16th Feb 09

I has been a rally - many are calling it a sucker's rally but I would like to refrain from saying so. It has the chance perhaps to take us to levels that are definitely higher than what we have seen in these times - the bad ones. I really had been waiting so eagerly for this rally and as the luck would have it - wherein I could not even see the markets - leave aside tracking them. A visit outstation was one, the net was down and lastly the night flying phase - crazy timings out flying at mid night and returning early morning.  Before going any further – Patheja – welcome to the blog. So whether you call it a hunch or say that the charts were read right – the fact remains that after a long time of anticipating a bullish run up – we are finally in so called bullish run up. How long will it last – should be the next logical question on everyone’s mind. I have same questions in my mind as anyone else – but answers with my (MY) perspective. If it were to fall tomorrow onwards – what goes wrong? Wrong is that enough money has not been pumped in the market for some to eat and sleep tight. Infact it is now only that some have started to come back to the market – seeing it get alive. The second is that the ones who are there in the markets are perhaps too jittery – give them a shock and they all (me included perhaps) will run back into our little holes. So this is the reason I really really feel that the markets will continue to inch up – however slowly and go up to next levels. Well I might not be able to say the same for the rest of the world and that adds another angle to the entire crazy times we are living in. On Monday we have another news driven volatility – the so called interim budget or whatever name you want to give it. Asia has seen it fairly good last trading day – Nikkei was up 0.96%, Hang Sang up 2.47% and Strait Times up 1.23%. Europe was just about okay – FTSE down 0.3%, DAX up 0.13% and CAC up 1.13%. US was where so much action was – company reports, employment data, sales figures and the cherry of stimulus. And yes – the US is taking some strong steps – both financially and otherwise that will change the nation in the coming decade. 13 Feb 09

In an article Rick Newman says – this year will remain to be bad and the recovery or the signs thereof will be visible only from next year (2010) onwards in US. He goes on to describe the signs that will be visible when the economy starts recovering. The signs listed are:-

  • Improvement in unemployment rate.
  • Stability in Home prices
  • Rebuilt consumer confidence
  • Lower volatility on the stock markets
  • Economic growth turns positive.

The full article can be reached by clicking this.

Coming to our charts and our future. Candles first – Had we violated the Upper Bollinger Bands I would have been singing – the present upswing is with caution. The candle once again engulfs the bear so remains bullish. The 5 EMA had crossed over the 20 EMA and 20 EMA too should ideally attempt a crossover of 50 EMA. The volumes were not really good but the move was fairly wide based – so that part is okay.ADX is bullish and make have no doubt about it. The level I would watch out for on ADX would be 35 – the crossover should make it touch 40. I am saying touch 40 because if it crosses 40 the bullish trend would be extremely strong – and that part I am not ready to believe yet. The MACD is still in the positive divergence and that is bullish. RSI is good and above 50. RSI too is bullish. Okay now on to the problem areas – the Slow Stochastic is in the overbought zone – it can hover around here but not for more than another day or so. Second is that Jaggu Dada’s TRIN says bearish. So these are the two indications that throw caution to otherwise good sentiment.

Another good thing that may work in our favour is that the US markets are likely to be closed tomorrow – so  the likely negative cues for Tuesday may be missing and the markets may do better than expected.

Let us see the pivot levels for Monday --

R3 3042
R2 3010
R1 2979
Pivot 2937
S1 2906
S2 2864
S3 2833
Projected High Range 2958 to 2995
Projected Low Range 2943 to 2906
Fib Projected High 2988
Fib Projected Low 2876

So we are back in game – I would suggest that if the market keeps above 2950 then be long with stop loss 2950. Best of luck.

Technorati Tags:


Tuesday, February 10, 2009


That header was to confuse you guys and gals - I am sorry but I am unable to update my blog till I am back from Mumbai on coming Friday. So sorry to all those who were here.


Sunday, February 8, 2009

Will this trend continue?... update for 9th Feb

Firstly let me apologise for not updating the blog on for Friday - was just caught up in work. Actually during the night flying phase I remain so busy as there is complete lack of sleep and to top it all - my broadband is down and  BSNL says that their network will remain down for another two days. Now I am on my life saving Tata Indicom data card and it is just too slow for normal day to day functioning. Like every time I have to pull up a chart it takes one hour and thirteen minutes (Oh forget it! - that thirteen minute part is my exaggeration). By the time the chart and the rest of the data is downloaded for the Friday's markets it is already Sunday.  I will tell you something interesting - I came across the market summary as given in Yahoo Finance - this is what it had to say

"Valentine's Day lies ahead, but the coming week should feel more like Christmas because the government is on track (we presume) to deliver some new recovery packages for the financial sector and the U.S. economy.

Just as any child has a feel-good vibe for Santa Claus, the market appeared to have a feel-good vibe for the impending packages as evidenced by a 6% gain in the financial sector and a 5.2% gain for the broader market this week. It was an interesting response given the absence of confirmed specifics on the structure of these recovery packages, which are separate but likely to be at least equal in their high cost.

The Treasury market seemed to appreciate that last, fine point as it got weighed down by concerns over the supply of government debt that will be forthcoming to finance the growing deficit. The stock market, in its inimitable way, focused on the rosier side of things, which is the notion that new recovery plans by a new administration will be the stuff a long-awaited rally is made of as confidence in the government's ability to steer us out of this crisis is restored. That belief overshadowed generally disappointing earnings news and/or guidance from some major companies, including Disney (DIS), Kraft (KFT), Costco (COST), Ryder (R) and Cisco (CSCO).

The economic news was a mixed bag. Both the manufacturing and services surveys completed by the ISM topped expectations, with notable upticks in their indexes for new orders. Pending home sales in December increased 6.3%, setting the stage presumably for an uptick in existing home sales for January"

Why I have pasted this for all to read is that simply speaking - they (read markets) are perhaps justifying what I have said for so long - we are really getting fed up of the bad news - Actually I would say that one of the two things is happening - either we are becoming indifferent to bad news or we are bottoming out and the markets is perhaps saying enough is enough. I am pretty sure in my mind that the worst is not over so bottoming out is not likely to be the option. If that be so then we will go up only to fall down. Here too I see a twist with the theory - what is the level that we will go up to before falling? The level - frankly should be where you will be convinced that the worst is behind us - and where should that level be? definitely around 3200 - 3500 level. A lot of people should at these levels get trapped with shorts at lower levels and suffer. So my advice? tread the path with caution. daily 08 Feb 09

The Global cues are good at the moment - The Asia closed green - Nikkei at 1.6% up, Hang Seng Up 3.61% and Strait Times up 0.63%. Europe too did not have too much trouble going and remaining green after the initial flat opening. FTSE was up 1.49%, DAX up 2.97% and CAC was up 1.84%. The Europe was in green around the closing bell because of the positive cues from US. The US closed Dow up 2.7%, Nasdaq up 2.94% and S&P up 2.69%. So going green should be least of our problems - the problem and the sight should be set at closing green.

Let us come to Candles - the ones that have showed me light so far. Look a the chart on to the right. Notice the following things:-

  • Bollinger bands have narrowed drastically - that is because the markets are virtually standing still.
  • We have four candles in exactly one line.
  • The volumes are low.
  • The last candle does not give any breakout sign - The breakout does not happen with one candle trailing the middle of Bollinger bands.
  • The candle may however may signify a bullish engulfing pattern.

ADX is weak but favouring bulls. MACD has a bullish divergence - however small it may be. RSI is positive and Slow Stochastic has the redline crossing over the blue line and the markets do not go either to oversold or overbought territory really. (Stochastics are as confused as we are)

All in all we may have the run up continuing for a few days if it catches momentum and a beginning has been made.

Let us see the pivot levels for Monday --

R3 2926
R2 2898
R1 2870
Pivot 2824
S1 2796
S2 2750
S3 2722
Projected High Range 2847 to 2884
Projected Low Range 2819 to 2782
Fib Projected High 2872
Fib Projected Low 2757

Hey! I am praying for the markets to improve -- are you?

One more thing - I may not be able to post regularly next week as I am accompanying my Wify for her US Visa interview on Wednesday. So pardon me on Tuesday and Wednesday. And ofcourse take care of the markets ;-)


Thursday, February 5, 2009

Hopes dashed yet again? Update for 05 Feb 08

Star gazing is what I am doing now a days. That is exactly what anyone can when the markets run on their own like an earthworm without a head. The markets have moved on to the phase where in they are trying to find bad news in otherwise perfectly safe havens of investing Daily 04 Feb 09– and this is what Yahoo says today on yahoo finance. The root problem that stays is that no one even now really know the width and the breadth of the problem the developed nations are facing. Take the Quarterly numbers from Kraft Foods Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Time Warner Inc. provided the latest reminder of the economy's struggles. The weaker-than-expected reports and a profit warning from Costco Wholesale Corp. left investors fearing that consumers are cutting back even more than most analysts thought. In US the investors were investing in tech stocks – that they saw as the saviours in these times of crisis but with the numbers coming out of Cisco – the world’s largest networking gear manufacturer –there has been a sharp drop in January sales. The effect on Nasdaq of Cisco’s numbers was enough to pull Nasdaq down 1%. GOD knows where we go from here.

Asia ended mixed with Nikkei up 2.73%, Hangseng up 2.25% and STI down 0.2%. Meanwhile we had a particularly good day in Europe. The Europe opened flat but sensing a green US went on to close higher – FTSE was up 1.54%, DAX up 2.69% and CAC up 2.90%. The US did not disappoint on opening – opening flat with green bias but by the time it closed the results and host of other factors took it down to close at the lowest points of the day. Dow was down 1.51%, Nasdaq down 0.08% and S&P down 0.75%. Today morning the Asia has opened in red but shows chances of going green. maybe a bit too early to say.

Our markets had nothing to show in particular. Still trailing in the middle of Bollinger bands trying to figure out where we have to go. The Bollinger bands are contracting a bit. The volumes were not good. ADX still bullish. MACD still absolutely flat. RSI trying to look up and Slow Stochastic – red below the blue line and neither oversold nor overbought. So there is no direction that is visible from the charts.

Yesterday the markets moved as always in a narrow directionless mode. opened below the R1 and then took support and kept trading above the R1 to finally break it with force – but pivot provided enough strength to make the market close in green.


Let us see the Pivot data…

R3 2904 against 2910 yesterday
R2 2870
R1 2836
Pivot 2808 against 2788 yesterday
S1 2774
S2 2746
S3 2712 against 2667 yesterday.
Projected High Range 2822 to 2853
Projected Low Range 2830 to 2799
Fib Projected High 2858
Fib Projected Low 2763

The upper levels are more or less at the same place but the lower levels have moved up. May continue to have a green closing.

If the markets behave as they have been behaving for last few days and you get bored then just click here


Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Time of reckoning is just around the corner… Update for 04 Feb 09

I will not be able to say off the hand as to where we go but by seeing the Nifty candles the charts are following a narrowing trend and nearing a breakout point. I will pray that it is in the positive sense but then no points for guesses at the moment. I will again image say – there is no way I can give you where we are headed to – do not bet too strongly at a breakdown. It may surprise everyone. Should I say that the markets are fed-up of bad news? The worst of news is reacted mildly and a tinker of good news gives a support. That’s good. Mind you that this formation (trend narrowing) is not only made in Nifty – it has been made in majority of the stocks that matter on nifty. The stocks have moved into a narrow range begging for a breakout.

The day today was not really bad – it could have been but it was not.The 5 EMA is close to crossing over the 20 EMA. 20 EMA however keeps its distance from the 50 EMA. The ADX is confusing if we see in the smaller time frame – just take it in a broader perspective then it shows that whenever the the markets have gained in the last three months – the ADX has shown strength. Whenever however – the markets fall – the ADX turns weak. I will take this as a bullish sign. MACD has no divergence – so can tip any side. RSI is not bad either. Climbing towards 50 and hopefully will go beyond. Slow Stochastic has dropped from the overbought zone. TRIX is good and started looking up. So purely by the Candles – my call would be green times to come.

03 Feb 09 3 month

The global cues are mixed at the best – Asia had Nikkei down 0.62% and hang Seng was down 0.66% – Strait Times was green 0.39%. Europe is all green at the moment. FTSE up 1.13%, DAX up 1.00% and CAC 0.75%. There is still time for the markets close there so watch out where they go too.US is undecisive but green with the report that the buyers have snapped up foreclosed properties. That may actually be a good news. The Dow is up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.35% and S&P up 0.43%. They are choppy –and it is still a long way to go so wait and watch is the word for it.

Provisionally FIIs have sold 278 Cr and DIIs sold 7.75 Cr. With both the FIIs and DIIs selling – we closed green? impressive.

Let us see the Pivot data…

R3 2910
R2 2867
R1 2825
Pivot 2788
S1 2746
S2 2709
S3 2667
Projected High Range 2807 to 2846
Projected Low Range 2815 to 2776
Fib Projected High 2852
Fib Projected Low 2730

So lets us see what the coming few days have in store for us. What ever it might be – I assure you it will be exciting…


Monday, February 2, 2009

Update on the options strategy suggested...

I am into night flying phase and will quickly update on the options strategy regarding that I suggested. As expected and as mentioned the stock being overbought eased off a bit today. Early in the trade I virtually purchased one Put of strike price 180 for 7.2/- Rs and towards the later mid day a call for 190 strike price for Rs 4/-. that makes total investment for Rs 11.2 (11.2X1625 = Rs 18,200)
The ending prices for the respective call and put Call for 3.5/- and put for Rs 9/- (so cost as on closing - 12.5X1625 = 20,312)
Let us review it to include what it did and what is likely to happen. The stock moved in a copy text book type. Moved down as it was overbought and how much - equivalent to its ATR. If it goes down further red tomorrow it will be a welcome news as the Put should then cost almost as much as I paid for the Put and the call together and any further drop will be my ticket for honeymoon.
Hope all how would have tried this experiment would make money in next few days. My Aim would be of 20% return on any one direction on any one side and then book profit and let the other side expire. In range bound markets one can be surprised in opposite move where in it also gives a lot of money.


Sunday, February 1, 2009

Welcome another month…. Update for 02 Feb 09

Ha so here we are – there is no good news coming from any corner. But the fact of the matter is that we as markets are not really falling like we were perhaps expected too. That is good and goes without saying – so have we gone into the much talked about consolidation phase? Are we disregarding the bad news that is hurtled at us from the US and the rest of the world? Are we ready to break away from the US sneezes… and the rest of the world catches flue kind of scenario? There are good indications that DOW will break the lower levels that were achieved recently in the past. There are companies throwing out the employees at a fairly fast pace and then there are companies where the employees are not going to work. 30 Jan 09 dayTake the example of 24,000 refinery workers that was averted. Back home there is another talk of a non financial stimulus package and the fact that we are not breaking grounds as the other markets in the world have been recently. Infact the performance on Friday was actually presently surprising. Infact the markets had opened a bit lower than the S1 levels and then just kept on recovering through out the day. This was no illusion – it was for really. Above the pivot levels it halted and took a breather – but it had destinies at higher levels.

As far as the Global cues are concerned the Asia closed bad – Nikkei down 3.12%, Hang Seng up 0.94% and Strait Times down 1.15%. Europe tried its bit to go green but could no. FTSE was down 0.97%, DAX down 2.03% and CAC down 1.19%. Jaggu has also mentioned on his blog about the strong possibility of DOW breaking below 8000 and I too second it seeing the charts of DOW . That cannot be good for anyone but there is hardly anyone can do anything.30 Dec 09 Daily

We are  at the moment itsy-bitsy above the middle Bollinger bands levels – so if we fall then we go lower below the 2600 levels definitely this time. Of we don’t then the next hurdle should be at the 3150 levels or perhaps a bit even higher around 3200 levels. The Bollinger bandwidth is not changing too much now a days. The volumes were average at 104% of last 50 day average. MACD has give a positive tick – and that is good. The MACD divergence is in positive territory. The daily volatility has come own. RSI is good above the 40 line and looking up really. Slow Stochastic is about to enter the overbought territory – and that may signal a breather from the climb. The TRIX is almost looking up – Thank GOD – I almost thought that the TRIX will give up.

I will not pull it very long as I am feeling extremely sleepy.

Okay too the Pivot data now…

R3 2988 against 2951 on Friday
R2 2950
R1 2912
Pivot 2843 against 2830 Friday
S1 2805
S2 2736
S3 2698 against 2709 on Friday
Projected High Range 2877 to 2931
Projected Low Range 2831 to 2771
Fib Projected High 2910
Fib Projected Low 2744

Too sleepy to decide where all this is going to take our markets – best of luck to everyone. I will keep updating on the option strategy tomorrow…


Investment Strategy…. Options

I wanted to suggest a strategy for investment – actually wanted to do so for a long time but thought must run some simulations myself before I make public. Before you go out an grab it – remember that all suggestions carry a risk and that risk is yours and yours alone.

For this strategy I will recommend the underlying stock to be NTPC. A stock that I have spent time studying – Let me enumerate reasons that I feel will go in it’s favour. Firstly, it has a short term bearish outlook that is likely to last just a few days at the most and a long term bullish outlook (Hey! the outlooks are mine and mine only – I do not follow the idiot box). The short term bearish outlook is due to the stock trailing along the upper Bollinger Band coupled by indications likely to turn overbought (giving ideal time to enter stock on positive side – and take a negative position immediately). The long term bullish out look is based upon fundamentals including the infrastructure development of power.

Ofcourse there are tons of other considerations – so please listen up:- ntpc

  • The 14 day ATR is 8.37 I will bring out the importance a little later.
  • There is a rising wedge in making – the day it breaks this range the force will be great and 20-30 Rs move is what I expect.
  • ADX is 26.
  • The total investment as of yesterday closing was 13.25 (7.35 for call, 5.9 for put). that turns out to be Rs 21531.25/-

After this let us analyse the investment…


If the closing price on 26th Feb is between 180 to 190 – we loose it all. At 166.50/- or at Rs 203/- we recover the cost in toto. Any move below or above these two levels is pure profit. Probability of the price ending 203 is 34% and 166 is 23%.image

If it gets caught in a range as it is now – then the put should be squared off around 160 (lower end of the Bollinger band and then wait for a jump. In all the probability it will go just to the middle of the bollinger band and then bounce back. With that there is another option – though it is a bit riskier. Buy Put on monday and then buy the call near 180. that will reduce the total investment and shrink the breakeven price. But it is a fact that if we are without hedging and the price climbs up (fuel price cut is in its favour) then you loose more than what you gain. I will keep updating on this strategy. On an average the price of NTPC has moved 30 Rs in a month for last three months. This kind of move can give you good money – especially if it happens during first 15 days of the month.

Why the ATR is important is that if for 3 to 4 straight days we have directional move – it will be enough for us to be in money. With the price 189 point something on last closing why I chose nearer call and further down – put is that the basic trend of the stock for past three months (since it touched 130 odd bottom) is trending up. So I will keep on running this synthetically and hope that we turn green soon.


And yes I will be updating the market thoughts about Monday later…