Sunday, February 1, 2009

Welcome another month…. Update for 02 Feb 09

Ha so here we are – there is no good news coming from any corner. But the fact of the matter is that we as markets are not really falling like we were perhaps expected too. That is good and goes without saying – so have we gone into the much talked about consolidation phase? Are we disregarding the bad news that is hurtled at us from the US and the rest of the world? Are we ready to break away from the US sneezes… and the rest of the world catches flue kind of scenario? There are good indications that DOW will break the lower levels that were achieved recently in the past. There are companies throwing out the employees at a fairly fast pace and then there are companies where the employees are not going to work. 30 Jan 09 dayTake the example of 24,000 refinery workers that was averted. Back home there is another talk of a non financial stimulus package and the fact that we are not breaking grounds as the other markets in the world have been recently. Infact the performance on Friday was actually presently surprising. Infact the markets had opened a bit lower than the S1 levels and then just kept on recovering through out the day. This was no illusion – it was for really. Above the pivot levels it halted and took a breather – but it had destinies at higher levels.

As far as the Global cues are concerned the Asia closed bad – Nikkei down 3.12%, Hang Seng up 0.94% and Strait Times down 1.15%. Europe tried its bit to go green but could no. FTSE was down 0.97%, DAX down 2.03% and CAC down 1.19%. Jaggu has also mentioned on his blog about the strong possibility of DOW breaking below 8000 and I too second it seeing the charts of DOW . That cannot be good for anyone but there is hardly anyone can do anything.30 Dec 09 Daily

We are  at the moment itsy-bitsy above the middle Bollinger bands levels – so if we fall then we go lower below the 2600 levels definitely this time. Of we don’t then the next hurdle should be at the 3150 levels or perhaps a bit even higher around 3200 levels. The Bollinger bandwidth is not changing too much now a days. The volumes were average at 104% of last 50 day average. MACD has give a positive tick – and that is good. The MACD divergence is in positive territory. The daily volatility has come own. RSI is good above the 40 line and looking up really. Slow Stochastic is about to enter the overbought territory – and that may signal a breather from the climb. The TRIX is almost looking up – Thank GOD – I almost thought that the TRIX will give up.

I will not pull it very long as I am feeling extremely sleepy.

Okay too the Pivot data now…

R3 2988 against 2951 on Friday
R2 2950
R1 2912
Pivot 2843 against 2830 Friday
S1 2805
S2 2736
S3 2698 against 2709 on Friday
Projected High Range 2877 to 2931
Projected Low Range 2831 to 2771
Fib Projected High 2910
Fib Projected Low 2744

Too sleepy to decide where all this is going to take our markets – best of luck to everyone. I will keep updating on the option strategy tomorrow…