Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Tic Tac Toe… Update for 17th Feb 09

Did we expect too much from the budget (call it interim, vote on account or anything) – the answer is yes and when we found out that there is nothing that the govt plans to do at the moment – the disappointment was equivalent to 100 nifty points. The point now is – is this a trigger for going down and testing new levels or 100 odd points more and the markets will start looking for something else from  the govt pre elections ban. This debate will go on for some time to come and where it eventually takes us – we have to do nothing but wait and watch. Seen the statistics? The FIIs sold 45.33Cr and DII bought 189.52Cr (provisional data) – Now Now – then why did we do the fall thing? The advance decline ratio too was bad with 232 advances and 957 declines, 38 unchanged  with the AD ratio 0.2424. All this is fine but still I am – or let us say was pretty sure that the market had some steam left to move up. So just let’s wait and see. The recession is here and a reality – we cannot ignore. Probably we had too high an expectations from the budget. The deficit has grown, there is expenditure only in Defence and some Farm SOPS that have been the worthwhile proposals. The UPA did this exercise only perhaps to highlight their achievements. All the same I still feel we still have a chance to settle down and see decent levels on the upside perhaps. daily 16 Feb 09

The Asian markets were moderately down and so was Europe. The markets in US remain closed so that part of the input is missing. Asia has opened weak with Nikkei hovering at –1.2% in red, Hang Seng down 1.93% and Strait Times down 0.71%.

The candles yesterday was big and black and on candle ate away the good work done by white candles since Feb 6th. The volumes were the same or perhaps slightly less than Friday. The ADX is still bullish – so lage raho munnabhai – might work. The MACD divergence is positive – but at this rate we will soon see a negative divergence. The RSI is looking down and has crossed below the 50 marker. Slow Stochastic is with the red line below the blue line and both the lines well out of the overbought zone. This all is okay – but what should we derive out of all this? I frankly feel that we will get over the budget blues and after seeing an odd day of negative closing may again start going up. The markets as of now are suppressed more than warranted and should go up a bit before falling – and ofcourse the manipulators can definitely come up with some more reasons as to why the we should go up – like looking forward to some measures before the election commission ban an doling out populist schemes.

The pivot levels for today are as give under: -

R3 3067 as against 3042 yesterday
R2 2994
R1 2921
Pivot 2888 as against 2937 yesterday
S1 2807
S2 2766
S3 2693 as against 2833 yesterday
Projected High Range 2900 to 2957
Projected Low Range 2948 to 2891
Fib Projected High 2984
Fib Projected Low 2807

So where are we headed to today? (frankly – I would have loved to say –GOD Knows) but I am sure that would not be acceptable so I feel that we should open negative or flat and recover throughout the rest of the day. Now now – let us see how it works out.