Sunday, June 29, 2008

Confusion Galore.......... Are we junked yet?

No -- don't let your spirits down yet -- we are down but not out. One of the biggest indicators being the 'Non Revision of growth rates for 2008-09'. Don't you take it lightly - it goes on to say the the interest rates hike will be a negative on growth and the consumption may come down a little, perhaps investments then might also come down from very high to high. it's not all that bad when you look around the world. On the other hand this statement could well be politically motivated. The Bank too have started revising their estimates downwards. Under the circumstances -- though we might be the survivors but surviving will become more difficult with each passing day. So in the short term we may continue our journey downwards, though still on long term the nose may be facing north.

The world markets closed in red and that will continue to bug us - and there is very little anyone can do anything about. a lot will depend upon the opening of Asia today early morning, Nikkei has opened flat and does not really know whether to go green or red. Top it with the fact that the US markets will have a shotter week - 4th july being a holiday.

Candles? Two white candles and then one black that almost encompases both whites in a bear grip. Add to the brew -- MACD red line below blue and gap widening, TRIX down, TRIN bearish (jaggu's input). All this hardly leaves a room for us to go green -- but wait -- SlowStochastic and RSI may (MAY) help us open green - thereafter - may slip or close flat depending on fireworks on political front or Europe's conduct on the first day of the week.

Who agrees on shorting Infosys? Who wants to go long on L&T? Please do post -- all for helping each other.

Have a Britania Good Day - Ting


Friday, June 27, 2008


Rumours are that the Nuclear deal has been clinched. Now which way -- and what are the modalities needs to be seen and that will dictate which way do we go from here - at least for some time.


D.... DO.... DOW.... DOWN - Namkaran Ceremony required.

There's just no way that we can survive an onslaught of the world markets behaving the way they are -- way down in the red. don't even think that you will open the Yahoo Finance page now and see the world markets. There is nothing much to see, I'll summarise it for you. FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 were on an average 2.5 per cent in red. US decided to show the way to Europe. It opened red and kept on slipping into red deeper and deeper and deeper. Finally DOW closed 3.03% down, Nasdaq down 3.33% and S&P 500 down 2.94%.

In Asia as of now Nikkei is trading 2.13 per cent down and Straits Times is down by 1.87%. I don't think anything else is required to predict the day-today. There is no way that we open in green at least. In addition to all this my most favourite and so far the most reliable indications --jaggu's TRIN and the TRIX are now hopelessly bearish.

Though there is no need now to spell out the rest of the indicators but I'll do so anyway. MACD's remains below the blue line - screams bear, but divergences reduced.RSI and slow stochastic should have ideally been taken as a buy signal but today -- I don't know what to say. Surprisingly the StochRSI is in the overbought territory. I really don't know what to make of it. With RSI and slow stochastic both being at the bottom and StochRSI being at the top -- if anyone can make out anything out of this please do let me know.

With all this -- the open is red-- try recovery -- we may, just may close in green. Of course the Europe's opening will also play a very important role in this. I say this because for the time being the political turmoil has been rolled over or some other day. Best of luck everybody-- as always.

A little better day in the world markets might have helped the hammer it made the day before to reverse the trend, but now? I just don't know.


Thursday, June 26, 2008

A hammer.............. well almost

Yesterday we had white candle -- it was somewhat expected. The way we had fell for last few days at short relief was in place. Ideally to signal a trend reversal we should have had the Hammer yesterday, unfortunately it is not to be so. I will explain -- for it to be a typical hammer the lower wick should at least be twice the size of the main body. The body made yesterday was 63 points and the lower was of hundred and three points, meaning the wick was short by 13 points. secondly with such candle indications generally one waits for one more indication before confirming the trend. So we will wait and watch what happens today.

Notwithstanding that the above I had expected bounced back yesterday on the account of the approaching Thursday and the RSI and slow stochastic were in oversold conditions. Well today, a few things have changed. Firstly, in Slow Stochastics red line has crossed over the blue line and that is good. secondly, the white candle has been made with a shade more volumes than last few days in nifty. thirdly, RSI that had gone into the oversold territory, that is below 30 marker is now above 30 and if it continues towards the middle marker it would be good. Top it with Jaggu's TRIN saying it is bullish.

Other than these the indications are still the same. TRIX is facing down still, MACD fast line continues to be below the slow line. Finally the white candle is still hugging the lower Bollinger band.

Well all this is good but what do we expect today? The recovery to continue until at least we see the rollovers. The tons and tons and tons of shorts the system and they need to be squared up. If they get rolled over as shorts than God help us otherwise the rally may last a few days. As for the global indications Europe closed green, US too was green and as always Asia is confused. Confused? maybe but as long as it remains in green the opening is likely to be good and we may continue to be green for the day.

Best of luck everybody.


Wednesday, June 25, 2008

I am guilty on all counts.....

Yesterday was the day when a turn round was possible. But then I had in all my wiseness thought that the market is likely to go down further. So when I saw the market in the green in the morning I'd prayed! The Almighty listened to me and slid the market into the red. I have been a mere spectator for the last few days. So I admit that I was one of the reasons the market closed red.

Today seems to be no better. Every day now we see US, Europe and Asia close in red. It is now no longer a matter of whether we close in red or green but the fact -- how much in red? As of yesterday the US --DOW was down .29 %, NASDAQ down .73 % and S&P 500 .28%. All well in red. In Asia Nikkei down .77 % and Strait Times is down .61 %.

Add to above inflation, high crude oil prices, lower US house sales and RBI's interest-rate hike. Where do we go from here? Well a little bit down perhaps. The saviour? The approaching Thursday and the fact that on the candles RSI and slow stochastic showing oversold conditions. On the negative side the three Crow pattern that was made on June 18, 19 and 20 is doing its magic. The TRIX is trending down, MACD red line is below the blue line and divergence is increasing.

However if in spite of above if we up in Green today it will be because of the approaching Thursday and that we are somewhat oversold. The short-term and medium-term remains to be red. So Best of luck to all those who want to swim in these waters. I am where I was yesterday -- on the sidelines. Nevertheless I do say at the cost of repetition that this is the time to buy if you have the money. You may not get such an opportunity again for a very long long time.

In God we trust. In politicians we distrust!


Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Good morning.......... good?

I really wanted to say good morning in-spite of the fact that nothing seems good. As we slept yesterday DOW closed at the zero marker, NASDAQ was down .85 % and S&P 500 was .01 % up. As I write now Nikkei opened in red but is trying to recover somewhat, Strait Times opened green and is struggling to remain there.

On the candles front, except for the fact that yesterday's red candle was small nothing else seems to have changed for good. the support now is at August 2007 levels and that is 4065. so typically the pain remains. TRIX has finally given up and started facing down, MACD red line is below the blue line and facing down, slow stochastic too was showing the same. RSI meanwhile has gone into the oversold territory. slow stochastic's red line too is in oversold territory and will wait most probably for the blue line to join their.

On the political front the fight remains. The the elections and inflation remains a worry. In short nothing has changed since yesterday except the bullish undertone too has disappeared. I'm sure though that one of these days when no one expects turn round we will see a white candle and Rajendran will then post on my blog 'game over'. on the one hand and dreading the market and on the other hand Rajendran. Jaggu's TRIN is what I wanted to wait for but I think that this much is enough to give jitters to everyone so I will stop here and press the 'publish post' button.

Psst... want a good advise? go on leave and enjoy rather than donating the money to the stock markets. Return the day the elections are declared and then think about it. Isn't it so depressing?


Sunday, June 22, 2008

Are people making money?........ Maybe

I know how difficult it is for the retail investor to short the market and then to keep short -- our natural instinct probably tells us to think positive. Every ray of hope is grabbed upon to build our castles of making money. This is especially so when any dip in the past few years have been an opportunity to buy and build better positions. Will we change our mindset now and will retail get into shorting as he would have done for accumulating stocks? I don't think that it is an option. Why? because he feels that at the end of the day he does not owe anything. This will prevent him to be the one to short the market -- and at the end of the day -- humans may be a kind of animals who will keep day dreaming of better times/better markets and profits and come what may will keep coming to the markets to loose more money. When a retail investor looses he gets into depression and keeps the loss to himself, on the other hand when he gains worth a penny he projects it as a great success. This just keeps his ego or may I say alter ego satisfied. This attracts more of such retail investors who undergo the same cycle over and over again.

At the end of it there will only be a handfull ones who will learn -- progress and make some money after loosing a lots and lots of money.

What made the markets crash on the last three days of trading? Was it Ganns turning date? Is elections around the corner? Is oil prices spiralling out of control? Is inflation the problem? Is American economy the problem?

It may be one or all of the above. But whatever it is, the last three days have not been good, for the retail investor at least. Traders may have had made money -- but that's about all. A perfect mood for recovery has been spoilt because of so many reasons. The same charts -- which were looking positive now spitting fire, once again we have on the candles that three crow pattern and to top it all there are still so many negative signs. We have touched the January lows, MACD Red Line is below the blue line. RSI is touching the 30 marker and looking down but not oversold. Slow stochastic --Red Line that was trailing above the blue line is now way below the blue line. sprinkle on top of this a little bit of inflation figures - and we have a wonderful recipe. In this kind of a market there are no support lines, I could give any arbitrary figure and in all the possibility we may touch those figures. 3500? 3000? my guess is as good as yours.

In all this gloom I still do not give up hope. The volumes are not as we had during the January fall. In all the probability the oil production will go up next month. The TRIX not really facing down and I do not know whether to trust my eyes but I do see divergence in the red and blue line on MACD.

Apart from all this discussed above there is one mushroom cloud on the PM desk -- the decision to go nuclear. That and this idea's acceptability by the Communists will decide for sure which side we head.

A red opening? Almost certain. The recovery? Well only markets will tell.

Best of luck to me for Monday -- I am long. I didn't sell a single stock 200 points up and now I'm just too scared to sell. Only a market recovery can save me. Pray for me.


Thursday, June 19, 2008

Bloody Gate Crashers.......... Europe and Politics

A alright day that started with fairly good indications was hijacked by the world que' and tha nuclear issue. Nothing much has changed expect the fact that selloff was advanced by a day. Inspite of the so called selloff - the candle body did not close below the day before's open. Not to much negative - we have all the reason to climb back on the track except for the UPA - Left standoff and the global indications.

As I write this all the indicators are in red. Europe closed red, US in deep red - DOW 1% down, Nasdaq 1.14% down and S&P500 0.97% in red. Asia too taking it in the correct stead - opened in red and especially HangSeng is diving into deeper troubled waters.

Candles can play a very little part in such a scenario where the other factors are overwhelming. Political scene till this standoff on nuclear issue is either this or that will give extremely negative signals. 25th is the date when the decision is due and since both sides are sticking to their respective guns -- the outcome may be icing on the cake - elections. WOW -- isn't thismuch story enough to make the day for the bears? No -- don't get it wrong there are very strong bullish signals slowly building up and they may force a recovery - however short it is. Will it be today? tomorrow then? no one knows. The candles do give a very halfhearted mild reversal signal the formation of tweezers. MACD redline crossover has got delayed. but still likely. RSI still bearish, StochRSI and Stochastic still not in overbought territory. TRIX still facing up but uncertain (yes it did not face down with the red candle yesterday) and best of all Jaggu's TRIN is bullish.

All in all there is a great tug of war going on between the bulls and the bears. As of the opening the bears have presented a strong case and a red opening is certain. Thereafter what? there may be a steady move up till the market closing. Where we close will depend upon the -- Political situation -- their remarks and mud slinging competition will dictate together with europe opening. I am still very certain that the bullish undertones remain strong.

My leave finishes - so my honemoon will be over as I board the train back to my duty station. I will remain on the train till well into market closing tomorrow so will not update the blog. Infact though I would love to be regular with this blog but just don't know as I started regular posting while I was on leave.

Best of luck to all and happy trading. Infact I will wish you happy weekend early.


Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Just a little bit more....

It turned out to be a day as anticipated. Weak opening and thereafter a steady improvement to end with a white candle. The candle shows strength and now we are prepared to look upto the 4720 levels where a entire new ballgame may start.

As we prepared to sleep the Europe continued to climb and finally closed after shedding a few points its top at around 1% higher except DAX that closed 0.61% higher. Then as we slept new worries about banks credit woes, inflation and drag of high energy prices weighed heavy on US and the opened flat then steadily went down to close in deep red - deep or not so deep is actually for you to decide. DOW -0.69%, Nasdaq -0.59% and S&P500 -0.58%. Now as I write this there are mixed signals form Asia - Nikkei half a percent in green and Strait Times almost half a percent down. HangSeng is yet to open.

There was a big white candle yesterday on Nifty and the closing was just 11 points below the highest point of the day. The bottom too was just 11 points below the opening -- meaning that inspite of negative opening bulls actually were in control throughout. That being so - what happens today. Will the bulls continue with the same enthusiasm? The indicators remain good today inspite of a confused Asia. MACD divergence is now nearing zero and the fast line should crossover the slow line today. RSI too should crossover the 50 marker and shows strength to do so. Stochastic fast line above slow line - and StochRSI nearing 80 marker. TRIX has turned up towards 1. The icing on the cake remains to be Jaggu's TRIN saying it is bullish.

What it all means that the sentiment remains good and no indicator is actually in overbought zone that should signal a sell off. We may however be expected to be in that territory shortly. The next acheivable target is 4720 which incidently is 38.2% retracement from the may 2nd high of 5299. If we do crossover sucessfully then after probably a small breather (that may be towards this week ending only) we might look towards 4835 levels.

Happy trading.


Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Me and you and a dog named Boo.....

The round up of Monday first. I had expected initially a longer white candle before the market opened and then expected a sell off seeing the matket behaviour during the day. This conclusion I drew from the fact that even after Europe opening positive - we starting shedding points.
Meanwhile the europe gave highest inflation nos since 1992 to 3.7%.
Noticed that the discount in futures reduced and came to premium? -- but then the nifty retracted and gave up the gains. So overall a positive monday but the confidence of bulls was really lacking where they bears had heavy hand above 4600 and bulls a better hand at lower levels. Well who won the round? -- white candle with the body above the last candle -- definately bulls won. There is no lower wick - meaning that the market never fell below the opening.

So far so good. Europe after a good opening however dropped to red and US after a weak opening tried to recover - Nasdaq closed green, up .83% and DOW closed red, down .31% S&P500 absolutely flat at +.11 or 0.01% in green. Taking these que's asia is totally confused. All this was by the way dictated by the oil prices fluctuations. Saudi did promise to raise production but less than expected.

What lies in store for us today? well a fairly confused day but a definate slow and steady move towards 4700. Candles? well say nothing in particular. Other indicators? Well MACD fast line may cross over the slow line and that is good. Stochastic fast line is already well above slow line and has crossed over 50 line remains good, RSI inching towards middle marker and StochRSI above middle marker. Bollinger band is contracting and the candles have moved away from the lower side of the band. Another good thing is that no indicator is giving overbought sign and so a sell off not likely still. Reading TRIX is tricky as it is now almost flat and Jaggu is still sleeping so cannot saw anything about TRIN.

Okay just as I was about to post TRIN has been posted by Jaggu and it says bearish. So inspite of developing positive signals the confusion remains.

I expect a red to flat opening with a slow and steady move up if other indicators remain constant and oil does not give any jitters to the market. We remain firmly on our way to 4700.

Best of luck for today's trading.


Monday, June 16, 2008

Welcome to a new week...

I see positives in the begining of the week -- how we end -- too far away to decide yet.

Why would I say this? Let us start. Dow closed flat, Nasdaq was up 2%, S&P500 1.5% up. Europe was confused but in green. Saudi is set to increase oil output and this will give a breather or even bring down the oil prices in near term. Reliance results were good and so will be of many others. The advance tax nos should give a boost to the markets and there is little likelyhood of any surprise that will now spring out of the closet. Well that's how I see it -- I hope that this is how it pans out.

The candles -- though still giving mixed signals are now inching towards a positive note. MACD divergence is reducing and may turn positive in a few days if all goes well. TRIX has hesitated a wee bit to continue going down. StochRSI crossing over to bullish arena. Stochastic fast line is confidently above the slow line and remains good.
The bad part is that RSI remains bearish and the irrefutable -- Jaggu's TRIN says bearish. Purely seeing the candles the opening on friday was lower than the Thursday's and so was the closing. That's not particularly encouraging but the good thing is that the body was small -- probalbly meaning that the bulls have not given up so far and may try a bullish breakout.

And seeing many index heavy stocks -- they look bullish on the charts frm short term perspective. So best of luck for the week. Hope for a good Monday.

Rest -- the opening will depend upon the Asia opening that has had no negative news over the weekend and should ideally start on a positive note -- taking cues of green closing of US.

People -- there was an article written by Uma on Position Sizing and Setting stop losses. I feel that It is a wonderful thing and a must for anyone who has to do anything for trading stocks. Unfortunate for us it is very difficult that such articles/explanations are available in such easy to read with examples of indian stocks. Please do leave your mail ID and I will mail you a pdf copy of the article. (still waiting Uma's permission to distribute the same though - that I am sure will come)


Friday, June 13, 2008

Eureka -- its a white candle

As was expected yesterday -- the markets opened gap down and then did what was not really expected - it recovered. That means that the 4400 resistance is standing firm even though after being violated once. Were the last two days of white candles expected? Were they an abberation? I don't know!

As I write this US was marginally up (little less than half a percent) and Asia opened flat - in green and now drifted in red. That gives some que about the opening and it may be red if asia does not again drift in green.

There is nothing particularly good expected about the markets except that Jaggu says that the TRIN is neutral to bullish. There is a fear psychosis related to Friday the 13th couple with that a weekend comming - and the general talk is about wild swings in the market -- in turn means make money and once you are in positive -- take an early day off and enjoy the weekend. The general consensus is to avoid overnight carryovers. The jitter in the markets is so much that even with yesterdays positive on nifty may see profit taking. That apart we do have capacity to inch up -- upto 4650 - 4750 levels in next few days. We are likely to tread this path if we are above 4550 on the closing basis.

Coming to the candles: Most of the indications remain bearish expect the fact that StochRSI is moving confidently towards the 50 mark and crossover will make it bullish. RSI too is looking up but still way to go till 50 point marker. On Slow stochastics -- the fast line has firmly crossed over the slow line and that is good. The MACD divergence too has reduced showing weakening trend (weakening bearish trend) but it is way to early to predict start of bullish upmove.

All in all the Asian markets may make us open in red and then inch up towards recovery if Europe and others give us some leeway.


Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Triple Whammy.......

I stared hard at the candles... I willed the Nifty to rise a little more... I prayed a little harder for sensex to rise... but nothing happened and that is bad. I had expceted the Nifty to make a white candle yesterday and that it did, but it was a much smaller one than expected. It closed just one point more than the day before's opening and the candle technically remains within the body of the last candle. Had it perhaps gone up another 20-25 points -- it might have told a different story altogether.

The Triple Whammy:
Well Dow is down -- deep in red as I write this and so is Nasdaq and S&P 500. they have an hour and a half still to close but nothing seems to work on US markets anymore and will be surprised if they even try a recovery.
Next - the Oil is raising its head again -- rising crude prices!! They can without any other factor can give goose necks to any trader.
Add to it the CRR hike by us.
What a perfect stew for those bears on shorts. Crazy is the word for it and there is hardly anything else I can add or say for today.
If US does not recover or crude does not go down -- there is little else that anyone can do in this world. A big black candle is inevitable with the above factors alone.

Let me go back to the candles once more -- As I said earlier -- the minimum expected closing was also the highest point of the day 4541. (mind you the minimum - Another 5-10 points would have done wonders) But it was not to be so and the market closed at 4524. This has effectively not changed any dynamics of the equation and we remain bearish. only hope is that we open in red and drift down rather than tanking down. The candle tomorrow will remain red as far as I feel and the point to watch will be the 4400 level. If broken 100-200 point downside is likely.

MACD and TRIX are pointing down. There was a fair attempt to leave the lower bollinger band level -- being the first attempt -- gives no indication till it is followed up by other candles drifting away from lower band. RSI and StochRSI both have moved away from the oversold region so they have leaway to fall back.

Sorry everyone but that is all there is to markets today and nothing seems good. The rally yesterday as per me is unsustainable.


Start building your portfolio today.....

We are at crossroads today - whichever path our markets take us -- we will improve in mid term. Since may 5th there are only 6 white candles and rest all are black. Has our economy changed overnight? I rack my brains and go around in circles trying to place what is right and what is wrong with our economy. As always I will try to list out what is wrong and then see the brighter aspects.

What is wrong? - Our government is democratic with elections around the corner. I very rarely take democracy as a negative but in this particular case it has turned out to be so. The government's willingness to sacrifice growth to stem inflation, and it's interference in micro industry level pricing and profitability decisions have also dented preception of investors towards the country. Though this in itself is not bad -- left to industry alone -- they do not give a damn to anything at all other than profits. So though govt could have balanced it out better -- it could not do so due to the communist pressure and elections.

The next is the sixth pay commision payouts (though my dil mange much more), the loan waiver and the food, fertiliser and oil subsidies have added to the fiscal woes. Though the tax growth for last five years has been unprecedented -- the gains are being flirted away.

Like our govt -- we as Indians have very strong pluses and minuses. The minus is that we build euphoria rapidly in any direction we are pointed towards. When we were moving up -- people gave a damn about valuations, fly by the night operators and companies and today when we are going down we are doing so with as much conviction. There is just no sanity either way.

Last but not the least are the twin snakes -- rising oil and weak rupee. Ofcourse the result of this is that inflation has raised and is likely to remain a major concern.

On the brighter side -- The fact remains that our growth may be 6.5% in worst case and 7.5% on the better side -- this you must see in the backdrop of that the majority of the world will have a zero or negative growth rate.

The growth story remains. We as a nation are earning more -- saving more and spending more. Infact this may actually be a good time when the companies that grew at unprecedented rates in hapazard manner now get time to consolidate and put their houses in order.

The valuations are now 15 times 2009 projected earnings -- not bad considering that we were way way up and climbing.

The elections will come and go and the govt will have too -- and I beleive will take action to put this economy on track by taking tougher decisions.

India is a Trillion Dollar economy now and has placed itself firmy on the global map. We are not likely to disappear overnight.

We may have to live through this pain of 6 - 9 month period, but the future remains bright and sunny. This is a good time to build a portfolio as the ruturns will be phenomenal when the tidings change.

Back to Candles: Nothing has changed since yesterday -- we have not broken the jan 22nd lows and if we move convincingly above 4500 will see 4650 nifty levels. Break of 4400 will see another round of selloff.
On intra day basis we see voilation of lower bollinger band but on closing basis we still remain firmly on lower side. RSI and StochRSI is definately oversold. TRIX is down but Jaggu says TRIN is bullish. MACD divergence is increasing and looking down. Last two days the candles had shaven heads -- no conviction even to go above the market opening.
US cannot decide between DOW and Nasdaq -- which side of the line they have to close. Call it flat. Asia as confused as ever -- yo - yoing in green and red.

What do I expect? -- A white candle. Hey just by the way there is a small disclaimer at the foot of the page. You may like to see it.



This is the extract of some interesting data I found on the web (on the indian stocks)

APR 1992 APR 1993 1281 600 681 53% 12 Months
SEP 1994 DEC 1996 1385 775 610 44% 15 Months
FEB 2000 SEP 2001 1818 850 968 53% 20 Months
JAN 2008 So Far 6357 4448 1909 30% 5 Months
FEB 2000 SEP 2001 6151 2595 968 53% 20 Months
JAN 2008 So Far 21207 14677 6530 31% 5 Months
53% is the most Common except once when it was 44%.


Tuesday, June 10, 2008

New iPhone is out........... and Apple stock falls 2%

That reflects what is wrong with the markets now a days. In the first year the iPhone sold over 6 million units and now when they revamp it, repackage it -- the stock falls.

No amount of good news of any is likely to have a lasting effect on these markets. Even the investment houses say the valuations are good but still harp that the markets also remain good to build fresh short positions at higher levels. Sanity? I was advised a long ago -- the markets will do what they have to do -- flow with them... All the same -- what happened to the contranian bets? Buy panic and sell euphoria. There is no fun in talking about where is the bottom anymore ... it is somewhere down there! - is the only truth.

DOW up, S&P flat, Nasdaq down and Asia red. The market touched march 17th low but closed flat at the 17th closing level. Remember that this was also the Jan 22nd low? What has happened over the last few months is that we Yo-yo'ed with the good and bad news on daily basis and now no one takes short term good news as an event.

Back to candles for all they are worth. The candles hug the lower band of the bollinger band -- infact just refusing to abandon it for even a moment. That is not good -- It has to leave the lower band and move towards the upper zone. The band is also expanding -- for the trend to really change the band has to narrow down a little. RSI too has now reached the overbought band and joined StochRSI, so that's not bad. TRIX heading down. TRIN (courtesy jaggu) saying bullish. Slow Stochastic has moved above the 20 point mark and many would ideally see it as a buy signal. The problem is that it will take just a moment to go back below 20 mark.

What does it all take us to? TRIN may force some support and open in green -- trade in green for some time and then ............ drift into red? maybe, maybe not. Take your sides and be ready for the battle -- I would not be too excited to short as we go green.

Best of luck.


Monday, June 9, 2008

Just another Maniac Monday.... wish it was a sunday... that's my fun day

There is no use doing any analysis. The markets will do what they have to do -- but now that I have decided to crystal gaze -- I will also do what I have to.

The candle formed on friday last was black but not bad. The market could not breach the Thursday's lows. The candle made on friday closed well within the body of the previous candle. Another consolation was that it did attempt higher levels and after not sustaining them still did not crack in real sense. Had it some how held on to 4700 levels or better it would have been nice. In any case nothing really matters too much as the way DOW and NASDAQ and S&P500 cracked by 3% and the kickstart of Asia in red by 2% -- it remains to be harbinger of bad news for us. All this is well but I still see recovery on the cards inspite of the expected weak opening, asia is slowly but steadily working its way up. Infact as I would like to put it across -- the bears are really overdoing it. The fall is too rapid by all means. The bears are now too overconfident -- the idiot boxes are shouting shorts and this is the time to be cautious with the shorts. They may work but remember -- they may not.

On the downside the support level (if any real support exists) is dropping down every day now nearing 4469 levels. If market drops below this level then it would confirm that is not Wave C that was discussed in quite a detail last month.

On the TA front there is nothing much. Same sh*t different days different ways. MACD is down and once again divergence between the slow and fast line is on the increase. RSI is bearish and StochRSI is at zero levels and I am now unsure of myself when I say that it cannot be kept at these levels for so long. TRIX continues to face down. Jaggu dada says that TRIN is neutral and global bad news will effect is what we all can see.

All's well -- I still feel it is wonderful opportunity to pick up gems and never before seen prices -- but that is what I feel -- no idea where the bottom will be.


Friday, June 6, 2008

Come join the party...

After being beaten physically and mentally -- the bulls are gathering strength to rally again. All this is on the back of some data perhaps that comes out from US. The data swings even more wildly than our politicians statements (and I thought the worst is here). Job claims good.... no wait bad... housing demand good.... ! ... wait did I say good? Bloody &^%##@ they change thier statements every hour. And our good old markets swing to their tunes like a snake to the snake charmers tune. It is so bad that I can just get up in the morning -- see how US closed, Asia opened and say --Ohh We will open positive.

That's what it is... a definate positive opening. Then what?? okay ... some trailing indicators are turning bullish. If we take a period from 2nd Jun to 5th May then see the high and low made by the market... the first acheivable target of 38.2% fabinocci retracements is around 4820 levels. Remember it was a support some time back? Well it is likely to be a resistance now but with all other factors constant the market should reach this level in next few days.

The candle yesterday has made a Peircing pattern that too shows the bear momentum loosing to bulls. This was the pattern that I was hoping to be made for last so many day, well it did so yesterday and that is good -- after all this wait and beating by the bulls. Three other signals giving buy. RSI, Stochastic and StochRSI. Infact the StochRSI -- has been at Zero line and should now cross 20 marker in next few day. The other signals may also become better than present by then. Mind you the volumes have been better than last three days when the markets fell down the hole. Unfortunately -- TRIX -- the so called leading indicator remains subdued and the MACD does not seem good even as the divergance has reduced a wee bit.

I will close this babble today with Jaggu's TRIN -- we are bullish.... and by the way -- we did not test the 18th Mar low of 4469## some other reason to celebrate...... ........Cheers


Thursday, June 5, 2008

What will the markets do today? ...GOD knows

Even if I see anything positive at all in the markets today - I know that it would be extremely difficult to spell it out after yesterday's beating I took. It is sad but true, the markets remain to be driven only by operators who in turn drive sentiments by harping negativities again and again on the idiot box and any other forumn they will get. Times are bad, but then not so bad to see the kind of hammerings that we had yesterday. I read somewhere that there are no support levels -- I have started feeling so myself. The market falls through one level to another like a hot knife in butter.

Where do we go from here? 4000? 3500? your guesses are as good as mine as would be of anyone else. Before I go any further I would like it to be very clear -- that firstly there is no earnings involved of any kind in posting this blog -- I do it to satisfy my ego -- so when you read it -- take it with a pinch of salt.

The situation is such that every recovery will be met with creation of fresh shorts and recovery will become more and more painful. That holds good not only for us but for every other market.

Without wasting time I will quote what jaggu says about TRIN I quote "TRIN:.Daily:0.4..(Overbought...bullish...hey dont be in hurry to buy,bullish means there will be LESS SELLING pressure)"
Beleive me I depend a lot on TRIN and if it says it is overbought -- please do see it in good sense. It works. After yesterday's firework the logic says that some sort of bounce back (whether it is called dead cat bounce or anything) is due -- but except TRIN and RSI there is not even a single indicator that I chart or use that says so. RSI is now oversold that supports a pullback. Those who could take positions yesterday before close may gain hansomely and as advised time and again by Uma - talk and eat small profits. Hold on to cash. Time will come for eating bigger profits if you survive these times.

Best of luck to all -- aah and yes 4469 is where we make a double bottom and I expect some support (if it is not peirced like yesterday)


Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Mirror mirror on the wall..... till where will the nifty fall?

Ha... don't see the topic -- I wrote it as it rhymed well and its good to Boo people early in the morning. The charts do not look as bad as yesterday and daybefore. There is some positive indications. Till when or till where will these take us -- is yet to be seen.

I will just talk about one candle formation -- the hammer. Yesterday on nifty a hammer has been formed that should ideally signal the end of this downtrend that we saw for past so many days. So a reversal of sorts should be on our hands. Mind you the pattern is good and strong but could have been better had we had a white real body than a black body. ....And to those who read my post yesterday... I had actually expected a peircing pattern. That entailed that the market should have ideally gone up after opening steadily and closed near its top. Then when I pondered over the charts I found that barring the discussion between the hammer and a peircing pattern -- it is actually good that we tested the bottom it formed on apr 7th. (4629 on 7th and 4634 yesterday). So today I do expect a recovery... mind you that does not take into consideration a fuel price hike to be announced today.

I would ideally want the nifty closing to be above 4869 for the recovery to be meaningful. And I do feel that it is achievable. The problem is that oil issue has become too complicated to be fully factored in with or without the price hike.

Other than what I have wirtten above the market continues to be weak. Jaggu (thankfully posted the TRIN yesterday) says TRIN is bearish. MACD, TRIX and RSI are not good.

To my mind the volume is slightly up and I see it as good as the resistance to fall was with slightly better volumes than yesterday. As also expected yesterday StochRSI has again generated a buy signal. The low of Apr 07 has been tested and with half a heart we can probably classify it as a double bottom. The divergence on MACD has widened and in the recent past this has been the average. With divergence reducing the fast line may attempt to go above the slow line in future and that will be good.

Now I will take on the second part that I saw on the charts today. Uma's blog recommended ACC. The candles do give a buy on the stock for the following reasons. Firstly, it has made a reversal pattern that actually I was expecting for Nifty -- that is Peircing pattern. It is a fairly strong signal and is the pattern made is a typical textbook like, so may give good relief for those holding on or to those who jumped in the ACC bandwagon yesterday. I see it going upto 700 (touching the 38.2% Fabonacci retracements). TRIX seems to have bottomed, stochastic is buy, RSI says buy and MACD weak buy signal. My only worry in all this is that StochRSI is at 100. it will have to hover above 80 minimum for some time to remain positive.

US closed in red and the Nikkei is green, hang seng red and strait times confused. Best of luck to all.


Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Ring a-ring o' roses,

Ring a-ring o' roses,
A pocketful of posies.

a-tishoo!, a-tishoo!.
We all fall down.

Weakness -- weakness and it was waiting to happen all the time. It was just a matter of when would the crash would happen.

Okay let us start with the crystal grazing...
... well nothing really to talk home about. All the indicators without exceptions show weakness.

Let us kill the bad news first... The candles are extremely bearish. MACD, RSI and StochRSI down and trending down. TRIX down and jaggu says that the TRIN is bearish. What else? nothing to cheer the markets on home front and world markets down in the drain. US closed down on an average 1.05 -- 1.5 % down and asia opened in red. So there is virtually blood everywhere. where does it leaves us?

A bad bad state and downside may be more and bad. The 61.8% fabonacci Retracements was broken with ease -- and it does not happen everyday. the reason to it that i think was the strength it built in the last few days were bulls could not do a damn worthwhile. The "Three Black Crows" are cawing loud.

Any ray of hope? Sorry to say but none in the near horizon. However some factors that are likely to bring some mid horizon cheer... StochRSI below 20 and will generate a buy signal soon. It is depressed for too long (except a small relief of a day on thursday and friday last). Volumes on nifty were below average. (I do not really track volumes .. but that is what charts show). There has been a candle that has gone out of the bollinger band and it is difficult to sustain trend outside this band -- so even if it drops -- it may trend within this band. Lastly, if the market closes above 4805 - 4810. there will be a reversal -- on the cards. I am actually hoping that the pattern made is piercing pattern.

All now depends upon the opening, trading and closing today.

Those with shorts ... continue, those with longs just exit and be on sidelines.

Best of luck to all. And with all this fairly accurate reading of the market .. I was long and could not exit as of yesterday .. hope i get some opportunity today.