Friday, June 13, 2008

Eureka -- its a white candle

As was expected yesterday -- the markets opened gap down and then did what was not really expected - it recovered. That means that the 4400 resistance is standing firm even though after being violated once. Were the last two days of white candles expected? Were they an abberation? I don't know!

As I write this US was marginally up (little less than half a percent) and Asia opened flat - in green and now drifted in red. That gives some que about the opening and it may be red if asia does not again drift in green.

There is nothing particularly good expected about the markets except that Jaggu says that the TRIN is neutral to bullish. There is a fear psychosis related to Friday the 13th couple with that a weekend comming - and the general talk is about wild swings in the market -- in turn means make money and once you are in positive -- take an early day off and enjoy the weekend. The general consensus is to avoid overnight carryovers. The jitter in the markets is so much that even with yesterdays positive on nifty may see profit taking. That apart we do have capacity to inch up -- upto 4650 - 4750 levels in next few days. We are likely to tread this path if we are above 4550 on the closing basis.

Coming to the candles: Most of the indications remain bearish expect the fact that StochRSI is moving confidently towards the 50 mark and crossover will make it bullish. RSI too is looking up but still way to go till 50 point marker. On Slow stochastics -- the fast line has firmly crossed over the slow line and that is good. The MACD divergence too has reduced showing weakening trend (weakening bearish trend) but it is way to early to predict start of bullish upmove.

All in all the Asian markets may make us open in red and then inch up towards recovery if Europe and others give us some leeway.



Uma said...

I hope you're long! I've picked up a whole motherlode of Nifty CE 4700, when I plan to sell if/when Nifty crosses 4600 :D
Now I'm long on ACC (1 future, offloaded the other)
DeepakFert (bought 100 shares at 102.5 )
Don't know what to buy in metals space??

S S Cheema said...

Uma -- I was long on amb cem and had to come out as stop loss got triggered. I was short on Suzlon and now am trailing stop on that one 7K for suzlon 2200 (-)for cem -- so ready for weekend. are you sure we go long?
Okay then decision taken -- 1 long rpl bought and on acc.
metals? -- sorry don't track any

Uma said...

sorry about the ambuja cements losses. As I see, it's closed down 1.05%, what kind of stop loss did you have in place?
If you're in for speculation, go for Nifty options instead of so many positions in all sorts of stocks.

Uma said...

Im not so sure about RPL. I'm in ACC for fundamental reasons, if it falls below 600 then I'll worry.

Uma said...

Chambal Fert up 9%, Deepak fert up 3.8%. Commodities are surely taking off!

S S Cheema said...

I have not got any formula for putting stoplosses. I read about 2% and when I sat down I did not know where to start this 2% from LOL
Was it the capital i have?
Is it the percentage of the margin I pay?
Or is it 2% of the real underlying value (no of shares in lot X rate)?

So at the end I decided that I will see the range of spikes in a period of time and give it some leeway and put a stop if it tries to go beyond it.

In ambcem it was moving about 50 paise since the time i observed it and decided any move beyond a rupee -was enough for me. so I got out when it was a rupee down.

All said and done I really do not know how it is really done. so won't mind you tutoring me if you can spare some time.

Uma said...

Oh, go away. After reading your nonsense about stop-losses I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Uma said...

You can read this if you wish:

geniusjaggu said...

"I don't know whether to laugh or cry."...i m in situation as u now...ROFL

this calls for celebration from my side atleast...

cheema paji,
ek large (patiala) peg mere liye banao... mujhe (dont ask me wat!!) hazam(digest) karne ka hai... cheers!!!

Uma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Uma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.