Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Triple Whammy.......

I stared hard at the candles... I willed the Nifty to rise a little more... I prayed a little harder for sensex to rise... but nothing happened and that is bad. I had expceted the Nifty to make a white candle yesterday and that it did, but it was a much smaller one than expected. It closed just one point more than the day before's opening and the candle technically remains within the body of the last candle. Had it perhaps gone up another 20-25 points -- it might have told a different story altogether.

The Triple Whammy:
Well Dow is down -- deep in red as I write this and so is Nasdaq and S&P 500. they have an hour and a half still to close but nothing seems to work on US markets anymore and will be surprised if they even try a recovery.
Next - the Oil is raising its head again -- rising crude prices!! They can without any other factor can give goose necks to any trader.
Add to it the CRR hike by us.
What a perfect stew for those bears on shorts. Crazy is the word for it and there is hardly anything else I can add or say for today.
If US does not recover or crude does not go down -- there is little else that anyone can do in this world. A big black candle is inevitable with the above factors alone.

Let me go back to the candles once more -- As I said earlier -- the minimum expected closing was also the highest point of the day 4541. (mind you the minimum - Another 5-10 points would have done wonders) But it was not to be so and the market closed at 4524. This has effectively not changed any dynamics of the equation and we remain bearish. only hope is that we open in red and drift down rather than tanking down. The candle tomorrow will remain red as far as I feel and the point to watch will be the 4400 level. If broken 100-200 point downside is likely.

MACD and TRIX are pointing down. There was a fair attempt to leave the lower bollinger band level -- being the first attempt -- gives no indication till it is followed up by other candles drifting away from lower band. RSI and StochRSI both have moved away from the oversold region so they have leaway to fall back.

Sorry everyone but that is all there is to markets today and nothing seems good. The rally yesterday as per me is unsustainable.



Uma said...

Stop looking for candles! If bears can't break 4350, then the hell we will see 300 point upside from here, 4350+300= 4650. Plus add 100 points for the purpose of triggering stop-losses, so Nifty target is 4750.

S S Cheema said...

My options may become alive then atleast.

Uma said...

cheema, will ya look up ICICIBank chart for me please when ya have a moment? I wanted to short it.