Thursday, June 19, 2008

Bloody Gate Crashers.......... Europe and Politics

A alright day that started with fairly good indications was hijacked by the world que' and tha nuclear issue. Nothing much has changed expect the fact that selloff was advanced by a day. Inspite of the so called selloff - the candle body did not close below the day before's open. Not to much negative - we have all the reason to climb back on the track except for the UPA - Left standoff and the global indications.

As I write this all the indicators are in red. Europe closed red, US in deep red - DOW 1% down, Nasdaq 1.14% down and S&P500 0.97% in red. Asia too taking it in the correct stead - opened in red and especially HangSeng is diving into deeper troubled waters.

Candles can play a very little part in such a scenario where the other factors are overwhelming. Political scene till this standoff on nuclear issue is either this or that will give extremely negative signals. 25th is the date when the decision is due and since both sides are sticking to their respective guns -- the outcome may be icing on the cake - elections. WOW -- isn't thismuch story enough to make the day for the bears? No -- don't get it wrong there are very strong bullish signals slowly building up and they may force a recovery - however short it is. Will it be today? tomorrow then? no one knows. The candles do give a very halfhearted mild reversal signal the formation of tweezers. MACD redline crossover has got delayed. but still likely. RSI still bearish, StochRSI and Stochastic still not in overbought territory. TRIX still facing up but uncertain (yes it did not face down with the red candle yesterday) and best of all Jaggu's TRIN is bullish.

All in all there is a great tug of war going on between the bulls and the bears. As of the opening the bears have presented a strong case and a red opening is certain. Thereafter what? there may be a steady move up till the market closing. Where we close will depend upon the -- Political situation -- their remarks and mud slinging competition will dictate together with europe opening. I am still very certain that the bullish undertones remain strong.

My leave finishes - so my honemoon will be over as I board the train back to my duty station. I will remain on the train till well into market closing tomorrow so will not update the blog. Infact though I would love to be regular with this blog but just don't know as I started regular posting while I was on leave.

Best of luck to all and happy trading. Infact I will wish you happy weekend early.



Uma said...

Oh, so you will be away! I wish you a safe and pleasant journey.
And your family must have loved being with you, I hope you didn't bore your dad and bro with market talk ;)

Uma said...

And Yup I agree, market looks ready to spring back. Big if on ICICIBank and Infy. But Ranbaxy is a major turnaround scored by bulls.

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Uma I will definately keep in touch with you, Jaggu, Rajandran and Nifty -- I have broadband out there -- it is only that I will be busy again.

Uma said...

say! pay day for me on ICICIBank!
Finally sold my puts. premiums have decayed to almost nothing tho! :(

geniusjaggu said...

wish u a safe and comfortable journey,sorry cudnt post in morning...we had a power cut for whole day :(

cheemaji and uma,
when i logged on to internet(evening 6 O clk) saw ...ho boy! mkt is down but not out..LOL

had i gone long...i wud have been chopped into pieces like kheemapav..lucky as always...ROFL

cheemaji, wish u too a good luck.. i will miss u very much...sob sob...

all the best and have comfortable life out there... pls remember me when u r having those wonderfull wild "items"...

take care...have a wonderful journey..

with love from South,
jaggu dearest

Uma said...

genius: what r u sobbing about, he said he will have broadband there.
I dunno what's gotten into you.

geniusjaggu said...

thanx uma for reminding me, :) LOL

Uma said...

Yup, everybody still has their favourite punching bag..."Cheema". that said, sometimes he deserves it :D ROFL.
Tell us when you're back, yo! On Friday I finally caved in and sold all my demat shares. Since most of my stocks were Nifty stocks, I switched over to calls (instead of keeping my stocks and hedging with puts, which seemed way too complicated).