Tuesday, June 10, 2008

New iPhone is out........... and Apple stock falls 2%

That reflects what is wrong with the markets now a days. In the first year the iPhone sold over 6 million units and now when they revamp it, repackage it -- the stock falls.

No amount of good news of any is likely to have a lasting effect on these markets. Even the investment houses say the valuations are good but still harp that the markets also remain good to build fresh short positions at higher levels. Sanity? I was advised a long ago -- the markets will do what they have to do -- flow with them... All the same -- what happened to the contranian bets? Buy panic and sell euphoria. There is no fun in talking about where is the bottom anymore ... it is somewhere down there! - is the only truth.

DOW up, S&P flat, Nasdaq down and Asia red. The market touched march 17th low but closed flat at the 17th closing level. Remember that this was also the Jan 22nd low? What has happened over the last few months is that we Yo-yo'ed with the good and bad news on daily basis and now no one takes short term good news as an event.

Back to candles for all they are worth. The candles hug the lower band of the bollinger band -- infact just refusing to abandon it for even a moment. That is not good -- It has to leave the lower band and move towards the upper zone. The band is also expanding -- for the trend to really change the band has to narrow down a little. RSI too has now reached the overbought band and joined StochRSI, so that's not bad. TRIX heading down. TRIN (courtesy jaggu) saying bullish. Slow Stochastic has moved above the 20 point mark and many would ideally see it as a buy signal. The problem is that it will take just a moment to go back below 20 mark.

What does it all take us to? TRIN may force some support and open in green -- trade in green for some time and then ............ drift into red? maybe, maybe not. Take your sides and be ready for the battle -- I would not be too excited to short as we go green.

Best of luck.



Uma said...

Cheema, now you can short Infy with SL 1925.
Nifty seems to have good support at this level. I just had a feeling that bears would crack 4400 to trigger stop losses, so I waited for the inevitable and picked up Reliance calls.

S S Cheema said...

Uma infy was making abandoned babies lince last two days that -- I thought were signaling a reversal -- Just took a plunge and was out with minor gains. These are testing times as you put it and I am plain and simple scared.
Just squared by some losses in other counter -- so nothing to be proud of.
Juast by the way some bad news about is HDFC is doing rounds and the word is that a crack of 400-500 points is on cards.