Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Correction??

This is the extract of some interesting data I found on the web (on the indian stocks)

CORRECTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET - in NIFTY
TOP BOTTOM PEAK BOTTOM Value FALL Period of
YEAR YEAR VALUE VALUE Of Fall %AGE Correction
APR 1992 APR 1993 1281 600 681 53% 12 Months
SEP 1994 DEC 1996 1385 775 610 44% 15 Months
FEB 2000 SEP 2001 1818 850 968 53% 20 Months
JAN 2008 So Far 6357 4448 1909 30% 5 Months
CORRECTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET - SENSEX
TOP BOTTOM PEAK BOTTOM Value FALL Period of
YEAR YEAR VALUE VALUE Of Fall %AGE Correction
FEB 2000 SEP 2001 6151 2595 968 53% 20 Months
JAN 2008 So Far 21207 14677 6530 31% 5 Months
53% is the most Common except once when it was 44%.


allvoices

4 comments:

geniusjaggu said...

arre mian,
u mean say tat tgt of 3500 is realistic..hoo hooo boy...wat a news..

or is it zor ka jatka dheere se lage one..and bottom is really at 2500???

i wonder wat Mutual Funds and Insurance Co's wud do for their lively hood...may be sell peanuts by packaging the peanuts with share certificates!!!!

S S Cheema said...

No jaggu -- they will make their investors sell peanuts (they just draw their normal 10 digit salaries)
RFOL
P.S. I seem to be rolling a lot now a days

Uma said...

cheema, that's an interesting table. Now our markets are more volatile so I don't really expect the correction to continue. Falls seem sudden, but lets not forget, bears took more than a month to crack 5000.
Also, I did some rough calculations about the money leaving markets (foreign funds outflow) and it's already factored into it.
I bought my 4500 calls yesterday at 68 bucks and still holding on :)

preet said...

Uma I would agree with you on the account that the information age we live in -- has given every one power to calculate and take decisions.That has made us both brave and weak at the same times. News travels more accurately and more further in shorter periods of time. People panic -- but that goes both ways. The logic may be manuplated but cannot be for very long.
Thus I feel the corrections are for shorter periods and more intense.
I will give you an example -- I have indiabulls accounts and I have realtime charts in front of me always for the scrips I am in. It is not that I make more or less money -- It is just that the decisions are so fast that sometimes I really regret them. Imagine thousands of retail investors playing with such tools. I have a pivot calculator and started putting limits. The limits always gets triggered because there are those who are just calculating the triggers and blowing them off.
Its a jungle out there in the markets and only fitest will survive.
Just the signs of times to come.
Really hope our kids live in better than these times. ;-)
Cheema