Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Watch out..... Oil......

As we wait for the bail out to work in US the oil has touched the roof once again by jumping phenomenal 25$. The reason given is that the "Oil prices have shot up in view of the US government's bailout anxiety and a weak dollar. 25$ jump on anxiety? I thought in past 16 years of keeping in touch with the markets I had seen it all. With the crude jumping to these heights - you would actually be a fool to expect that we will not hit the lower cct on our exchange one of these days. Why do I have a feeling that there are people who knew about it. I was told by someone about the date also and there -- boom -- it does it on the specified day. Anyway there is really nothing anyone can do about it expect to wait and see. Targets on Nifty and Sensex -- don't you dare ask me - the unknown benificiary of the advance news about the jump in crude probably kept this info to himself.

I am not a joker anymore in writing this blog - I am a bloody Ass trying to pin the markets. But you know what don't get it wrong - I do not give up and will continue doing what I feel like doing and this blog will survive provided I have time to update it. Well to the summary now. The Asia closed mixed with both the red and green colours - Nikkei up 1.42%, Hange Seng up 1.58% and Strait Times down 0.58%. We had Sensex closing at zero line (0) and nift ywas down by 22.2 points (0.52%). The world markets too are in dumps With Europe FTSE closing 1.41% down, Dax down by 1.32% and CAC down by 2.34%. US is a story by itself by being at the moment on an average 3.5% down. Dow down 3.28%, Nasdaq dwon 3.94% and S&P down 3.84%. The main reason being quoted is the surge of the Oil by 25$ - crazy is the word.

On the Candles we have not done well - infact if at all a reversal to two days of upswing might be on the cards. The black candle was not backed by volumes though. So here we stall in the middle of the bollinger Bands once again with all the possibility to go down. The 5 EMA line remains below 20 EMA line. The negative divergence on MACD remaining and giving negative indications. RSI turns bearish, Mass Index is above 26 and fast climbing into the reversal zone - if it does not turn back now - then by tomorrow it is likely to be too late by anycase. We may be well firmly into a bearsih grip by then. It is only on Slow Stochastic that the red line is above the blue line and seems fine. But by itself I will not give it too much weightage. TRIX - my so far the beloved leading indicator says - bearish times ahead. So as far as I am concerned - till we now go well into the oversold territory - do not expect too much from the markets.

It is 0200 (Yeah it is night 2 'O' Clock) and I am waiting to go flying next . I might not have time to update again before the markets open. So please pardon me. Lucky are those who are sitting on shorts.



dr.c.m.singh said...

cheema: I read it was contract expiry day yesterday for near month crude delivery....so there was huge short covering...as the next month contract remained around $ 108...so i think there is not much to worry about crude unless it trades above 110 consistently for next 3-4 days...rest you never know..


preet said...

cm - then I probably got it wrong. ANy way the Asia has opened red.