Saturday, September 27, 2008

I am guilty.....

0930 hrs: There is no respite in the Asian markets even though they opened on the positive note. All Asian markets are in the red and the fall is likely to continue - that is because the rescue package has not been taken well by the markets. Not too much hope in near future.

0622hrs: Nikkei opened flat and immediately climbed 1% up. Strait times too opens 1% green - Cheers

PS: These are some kick-ass posts you coming up with!
take care buddy, may you trust your judgment but not your impulse.

This was a comment from Uma - with whom I have been interacting for some time now. The moment I got this comment from her on my last post - I had a feeling of doom - and that was before the markets opened in Asia. I had to take it with a pinch of salt and as I went to the depth of what was said by her - I had to gulp my pride and sit up. She was totaly right - in comming this distance in blogging for last few months - I became what I was ought not to be. I was not as unbiased as I claimed to be and somehow got into story writing - than the technical talk at hand - to give unbiased view - technically about the markets. The last two days have taught me a lesson where I made unreasonable assumptions and was proved wrong by the technicals. It took the above comment from Uma to wake me up from my fantasy land to get me back on track. I thank Uma and I hope I once again start out on a better track.

I appologise to all who suffered because of me in the past few days. Okay here I go again - with restraint of course. The Nuclear deal has come through and there is jubilation in US. Will we also celebrate? We should - but beyond that - don't know. Asia was negative a d remained so - perhaps going down and under a bit more - Nikkei closed 0.84% down, Hang Seng was 1.33% down and Strait Times 1.34% in red. Europe opened red and never looked up closing at the same level it opened. FTSE was 2.09% in red, Dax was 1.77% down and Cac was 1.5% in red. Dow opened where it was supposed to - in red. As the news of the deal of bail out working out started doing rounds - there were hopes once again and the markets recovered. The Dow ened 1.1% in green, Nasdaq ended only 0.15% in red and S&P closed 0.32% in green. The indexes had virtually eaten up the loses of the day - except for Nasdaq. And finally the reason for all this trouble remains but the BailOut deal seems to be on the table with Bush administration and the Congressional leaders reaching a tentative deal on early Sunday.

On the charts the candle was large and black. we closed at below what I considered a support at the 4000 levels. next level that we should drop to is likely to be 3800 level if the drop is not arrested. If there is a turnaround then we should/could end up above 4100. The candles are again to the lower end of Bollinger bands and the bollinger bands are still widening. The 5 EMA is trailing well below the 20 EMA line. The drop mind you was on less volumes. MACD divergence has again started t o increase - negative that is. Red line continues to be below the blue line. Not good. Mass Index has turned back below the band that indicates change of trend so the hope is there that we still might not go into the bearish run for mid term. RSI however is way bearish and so is Slow Stochastic - red line trails below the blue line and shows no sign of reversing. TRIX is flat to negative.

So now here we are with the facts and facts alone. Will this do? Shucks -- how can I suppress what I want to say -- But I will restraint my feelings till I can no longer hold it in my stomach.

Nifty Projections

R3 4250.75
R2 4162.25
R1 4073.75
Pivot 4022.05
S1 3933.55
S2 3881.85
S3 3793.35

Fib Projected range high 4148.68
Fib Projected Low 3932.22
Projected High Range 4047.9 to 4118
Projected Low Range 4103.1 to 4033

Will update as the Asian markets open.



Uma said...

I just told you something I learned after burning my own money. No need to glorify it, cause I still struggle with following my own advice. You on the other hand, take a lot of punches with grace.

S S Cheema said...

Hey - is that a compliment or otherwise?
Uma - I could survive this last few months by being on the sidelines and shadow boxing. Just waiting for all this dust to settle down.
Someday I will.
Pay commission on its way - LOL

Amit said...

Good Morning,

Nifty is Making "Three falling peaks" chart pattern this time it will break the previous low and will make new low, Please Check it.

S S Cheema said...

Thanks for the link amit. Where will this all end?

Uma said...

methinks around 3700 or slightly lower. I still can't get over that Dow Jones has outperformed Sensex.

preet said...

We will know that soon I think.