Thursday, September 25, 2008

Bear Hunters rejoice ..... You your time has come

0800hrs: A Republican revolt stalled urgent efforts to lash together a national economic rescue plan Thursday, a chaotic turnaround on a day that had seemed headed for a success that President Bush, both political parties and their presidential candidates could celebrate at an extraordinary White House meeting. Asia has opened and is trading red. The second news that will be cheered by the bears is that there is no sign of the Indo-US nuclear deal as the congressional nod is still eluding. - So that is what life is all about - bulls and bear surprises. With all indicators negative and the bad news helping bears - we will have a ball of a time (read more downside)

2300hrs: I had expected that today we will see a run-up in the stocks. I really cannot justify why I had that feeling. But on the contrary markets ended with almost 50 point loss on the nifty. It has been too long since the markets have remained suppressed -- a new rollover month should give us new opportunities if you remain to the right side of markets. The Asia traded red and closed red. Actually there was nothing better expected out of the situation we were in. There are spokes within the US who are trying to stop the bailout deal. I am the other hand was absolutely certain that it is just a matter of time that the step will be taken and the bailout will will be made to work. US is not the kind of nation that will take a problem of this magnitude staring in its face lying down. if that be so then a solution had to be found, and at least an attempt be given for it to work. At the moment they do not lack the resources to try solving this great puzzle they have been pondering about since fairly long now. The second reason I had was that the stocks of now remained subdued a very long and we do not really require any reason to bounce back with a vengeance for about 100 to 200 points on nifty.

Nikkei closed 0.9% in red, Hang Seng opened in green and remain green for more than half the session finally giving up all its gains during the end to end 0.15% in red. Straits Times opened in red and remained there throughout the session making a feeble attempt to go close to the flat line -- failed -- and closed in red 1.35%. The Europe opened flat -- as if trying to buy time to decide which side of the line to go. It remained along the flat line upto more than half the session. Finally as the news of US opening in Green started pouring in -- the Europe recovered and closed well into the green. FTSE closed 1.99% in Green, Dax closed 1.99% in Green and CAC closed 2.73% in Green. Seeing this my heart was singing with joy. I quickly switched over to see where the US was heading too. what I saw was a green opening -- not very strong but the stocks thereafter climbing towards more than 2% of gains during midsession. I would pray that they end the session strong. As of now Dow is 2.19% in green, NASDAQ is 2.52% in green and S&P 500 is 2.88% up. It is as if all the indices are trying to outdo each other. and all this mind you is happening as the lawmakers are moving closer to hammering out a deal aimed at reviving the crippled financial system. If the deal works out -- it would ensure a good run in the immediate future. As far as mid-term and long-term horizon goes -- it will still take some time before Technical Indicators turn bullish. As of now they remain bearish.

On the charts the black candle that we had today was one of those that I've got used to seeing almost every second day. A bearish candle. But the candle somehow does not show any strength has a bear. Neither does it convey any trend or change of trend in the near future. So if we to run up it will be based news driven. The Bollinger bands are wide, and signal the continuation of the downtrend that started on September 9. However at the moment the candles are somewhere in the middle of the Bollinger bands that is they are not excessively along with the bearish lower bottom. The 5 EMA line continues to be below the 20 EMA line. The volumes were higher on the nifty. Maybe because of the expiry of September futures. MACD indicator is where it was yesterday, the red and blue line virtually running parallel to each other. The Red Line continues to be below the blue line. The mass index is now entering the zone which is not good at all. If the reversal has to come it will come in the next few days. The RSI remains to be bearish. The TRIX is looking down but like yesterday not at the same gradient. It is flattish. Slow Stochastic also is moving nose down, with the Red Line below the blue line and turning towards 50 marker. so like I said earlier if the markets to be green tomorrow it will not be on the shoulders of technicals. It will be purely news or event driven.

Best of luck to everyone and I hope against hope that we all are on the winning side.



Uma said...

Cheema: For Chrissakes don't take it personally, but I want a looong break from blogging so I am going away for a few days...
PS: These are some kick-ass posts you coming up with!
take care buddy, may you trust your judgment but not your impulse

S S Cheema said...

Uma: take a break - I see why you want to lay off - I see everyone wants something from you - advice, Force index - or something or the other. Do keep in touch whenever you do feel like - I might be here for some time to come.
It has been nice interacting with you and will look forward whenever you do come over - back to blogging. Do tinkle me...

Uma said...

Thank you for rooting for me. Yep you're right...people can look on google for a lot of info.