Monday, May 11, 2009

Whiff of a fresh new week… Update for 11 May 09

Another week – a new story waiting to unfold. My wife asked me what is so good about the markets and I replied – why do you like the Bollywood? Before she could answer – I said that like the good old Bolly talkies – there is romance, suspense, love, hate , fear, laughter…. and all the emotions that man could ever dream off – It is not red and green ticks that make the heart beat but the love of the life, love and passion of beating the unpredictable that draws most here other than an attempt to make money. I really do not know how many have really made big money but the statics say that there are more hopeful in this field than perhaps those aspiring for becoming an actor/actress in Bollywood. So here we are – people trying to put a leash and wishing the markets to do what they think it should do and the markets are as defiant as ever. So when there is no hope of the markets being moved by what we say then we become the proverbial dogs being wagged by the tail.Daily

I see everyone saying that we ought to go down – and when the markets do not agree then we switch sides and say – no there is a higher level and we are bullish about the short/mid/long term of India.

The Global cues till the closing of the US on friday signalled that we may open strong and wash away the day of losses we have. However with the Asia opening today I am not sure! The market is weak … Let me just start it the right way. On Friday the Europe was fairly okay – FTSE was up 1.44%, DAX up 2.29% and CAC up 1.88%. Infact the European markets had not shown weakness anytime during the day. US too was rocking. Dow was up 1.96%, Nasdaq up 1.33% and S&P up 2.41%. The Asia however does not share the enthusiasm of remaining green. Nikkei opened green and immediately dropped red – now trading 0.9% down. hang Seng is green and looking up. Strait Times is in red – down 0.57%.

The charts are bad and give out no good news. Infact that has been the case for pretty long time now and it would be a matter of time when the markets give up to touch lower levels. There are our elections results too that are about to stand around the corner. No one really knows for sure what is going to happen – so it would be best that we wait for the results and then the market reaction. I also believe that we have been too loud in saying that the hung parliament is expected – so I feel that if it happens so then to a large extent we have psychologically discounted it and if we do have a stable govt – then it would be too good to be true. The candles are near the top end of the Bollinger bands. All lower EMAs are above the higher ones except 50 EMA that is yet to move above 200 EMA. The volumes are average or perhaps little lower. There is a negative divergence on ADX and RSI. But as of now both are giving Bullish signal only. MACD is bullish but the divergence is playing dangerously close to the Blue line. Slow stochastic is bearish and overbought. We can expect a correction sooner than later.

I am as it is late in posting update – so I will not talk about anything else and press the post button.