Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Bulls – and the three Aces…. Update for 5th May 09

Wow what a day it was and like for so many days now the technicals did nothing to show the path. Infact they have become a joke with resistances being cut like a hot knife in butter. On the other hand each support stands put like the great wall of china… visible right from the moon. In any case if the stock market is to be a zero sum game then we have to loose for the other party to win. Each of our wins are just to keep us hungry with blood on our lips for more and the “operators” have their fill. Daily 04 May 09The markets will not fall till the time everyone of you is convinced that we are bullish and we are sitting on good enough positions to donate money to the operators. Infact so much so that I feel that it is not worth going through the rigmarole of seeing the charts and trying to read the mood of the markets. It is just not listening to the technicals at all. In one stroke the markets have broken through all the so called resistances and went up to the Upper Bollinger bands. Of course that is Bullish and ofcourse I am bearish. Sh*cks – I can almost write a book now as I see the markets from the other side of the hill.

The Global cues? Asia was in the seventh heaven. Except for Nikkie that gained just about 1.69% – rest were competing with each other to out pace the other in the climb. Our markets were too in the same rat race finally ending a good 6.41% in green on Sensex and 5.85% up on Nifty. The volumes were not out of the world but 121% last 50 day average. Europe was cautious with FTSE ending 0.01% in red – basically flat with DAX up 2.79% and CAC up 2.47% – the major gains coming basically in last two hours of to the closing for the day. The mood in US was buoyant to say the least .. Dow up 2.61%, Nasdaq up 2.58% and S&P up 3.39%. The S&P has as of now washed off all its losses for the year and has come to green for the year 2009. Quite an achievement so as to say. As of the morning the Nikkei is closed – Hang Seng and Strait Times opened as expected – strong and are some how now seems to be giving away their gains. Hang Seng is volatile with the index up 0.51% and Strait Times up 2.01%.

On the Candle sticks – The candle was a kind of  - not seen since long time. A handsomely tall and white. It went on to touch the upper Bollinger band and if we  are now to trail the upper edge once again then there would be another good run up. Needless to say that we are as of now safely above any moving average you can possibly think of or invent. The ADX is bullish and the +DI gets a new lease of life. MACD has ticked to bullish once again and RSI has become bullish – but in overbought territory. TRIX that looked down yesterday is non committal. Slow Stochastic is bullish but confused. And once again we are above the trend line that I drew and presented yesterday.

Though all the charts are showing a tall white candle – seeing the market run up yesterday we may decipher it as a gap. I will leave it at that as I do not have enough knowledge to substantiate it. The Put build up continues on the options – the ratio is not as bad as last month but all the same the Puts are out pacing the calls. Only time will tell how things will work out in days to come.

I will move on to the Pivot data now: -

R3 3850
R2 3784
R1 3719
Pivot 3598
S1 3533
S2 3412
S3 3347
Projected High Range 3659 to 3752
Projected Low Range 3756 to 3483
Fib Projected High 3714
Fib Projected Low 3427

I am sick of being against the market for so long so I will not say anything regarding how I feel about the markets. Cheers and may you be on the right side of the markets ;-)

PS: my night flying phase has commenced and I will be running on a very tight schedule so please pardon me if I miss an update or two.



Uma said...

hey, thanks again for the hard work on technicals n the analysis, hope u're making money too.
I sure pray that u do!

S S Cheema said...

Ha! uma that money part of the remark.
psst... Rolling on the Floor Crying #$@

Happiness remains.

S S Cheema said...

Uma miss your force index calculations - were just too great - don't know when I will reach that stage.

Uma said...

Damn! the ROFC is both funny and sad! I dunno whether to laugh or cry...too much hard work cheemz...it's supposed to pay off!
And hope it does! My innings in stock market are over for a few years...I have tried every trick in the book. I used my head, I used the head of market historians, in short when things don't work then things don't work!
And when they do the payoff is not too great to justify that kind of investment of time. Another thing that spooked me recently is the medications I have been taking for last 10 years have "problem gambling" as a side effect. It's what I take for a hormonal imbalance. I am not too sure if I lived that side effect (compulsive gambling) these last 2 years in the market or it was something more. We really have to go into all our reasons for trading, in order to be successful.
Any impulse, any belief, any personal value or deficiency that gets in the way, blocks the path to success. I hope that you will find what you're looking for...but always think about the situation from a different angle if the money is not coming in. There are other ways to make it. I'm better off with other ways.
As for force index, my blog, etc etc...when I enjoyed articulating my thoughts it was a great learning process. Now I have learned what I could, from the time invested. The abusive freaks really are looking for somebody's happiness to feed on. Let them find other avenues of expression.
Had left u this message on jaggu's blog, thought I'd post it here so u don't have to go check:
c'mon cheema, I'm sure kshitijesh appreciates the effort (see, I might as well start learning too). I've missed talking to you...how was wifey's US trip, what shopping did she you, and what all did u guys buy in Mumbai, didn't you want to accompany her to US? And hows the flying and all? Hope you're not losing in stocks? Did you try more of guru.com, I've seen some interesting projects posted there lately...
nite then, take care...
PS: my sister's b'day today! :)
was fun, now that she's in Pune

income.portfolio said...

Hi SS Cheema,

this was my first visit. I like the sense of originality on your post. Although I come from the school of fundamentals, your TA posts were very enriching. Reading to some views (rather then just charts) is time well spent.


S S Cheema said...

Uma: fear not - I am fighting and it is just a matter of time that scotch flows again...

Tip Guy: thanks for the comment.