Sunday, August 16, 2009

Neither a bull – nor a bear… Update for 17 Aug 09…

image … sometimes I seem more like an a**. Well then I suppose that this is the way of the markets. If the 80% will not loose then the 20% will not make a killing and the markets will not be exciting for people like me to sit and stare. Are markets bullish? are they bearish?… A lifetime goes by learning the answers and the markets change with a flick of a switch. But then this is what I suppose the markets are supposed to do in the first place – fox us. In any case if it continues this way – so will I !!. The markets are really caught up in a range and the breakout will ideally give a good opportunity to make money. Now the next question is when will this breakout take place and what direction it will be. Afterall if we do not have these answers in our hand then we will loose out big time. It may be a good idea to sit on sidelines – but then tell me – what man with the right amount of Adrenaline pumped up in his veins will sit ideally on the side lines? Not me – though my heart does skip a beat every now and then. If however the trend is caught right then it is a big achievement. So we need to first break up the question in two parts and then try to see how we can answer both the parts. Also what ever knowledge of technicals I have I will throw them into a box and see the historical data to pick up signals as to when and which side will we have a breakout.

image image The best indicator as I see it – that indicates the range and when we will get out of the range is ADX. (I am talking about only the indicators I follow – and if there is some other then telling me would be great.) ADX ideally – if it under 20 then it is signalling no trend either side. The Upswing lost its momentum of the upswing on 5 Jun 09 and then around 7 Jul 09 it got caught in a trap of no particular trend. Historically the ADX has not been keeping below 20 for too long periods of time – so one can expect a trend moving in a definite direction soon. The lowest was seen in the recent times on 11 Sep 08 at 10. We are presently at 14 and to take directional call now is not the right thing to do. There is no trend – there is just bullish and bearish pulls and pressures and that is all. It is because of this reason really that it is extremely difficult to take a directional call on the market right now. Now something I have not researched my self but ripped off the other blogs. – there is a Head and Shoulders (inverse) that is made and a breakout above 4700 with volumes will carry it higher. Others say that it is a bull trap in making with attempts of the movers and shakers to get retail on the train before pushing it in deep sea. You can pick up any line and tow it and chances are that you have 50% chance to win the prize being right. But also consider the H1N1 and the monsoons. daily 13 Aug 09 These are two things that cannot be wished away. You can click both the maps to get an idea and sense as to where are we headed too. In any case if we go upwards then this was negativity was compensated for and if we don’t then it justifies the downtrend. Two more information pieces that one can consider… the valuations now as compared to the forward projections of 2010 are stretched and FIIs do not seem to be in too much of a rush to put in money in India. Well the last point can be contested and I would welcome it.

Coming to the global cues – the day of upswing has died down fairly fast. Asia was still reeling from the upswing so closed green – Nikkei up 0.76%, Hang Seng up 0.15% and Strait Times up 0.66%. China has had a bad sell of sessions previously and it is just a matter of time we catch up. Europe was flat to green for most of the session but ended definitely red. FTSE was down 0.87%, Dax down 1.7% and CAC down 0.83%. Of course it was US that had dragged the Europe down and US by itself ended – DOW down 0.82%, Nasdaq down 1.19% and S&P down 0.85% down.

As far as the Charts are concerned – there was a black candle. that could not pierce the white candle. Previously – many a sell off have started after a this black candle coming after a tall white candle. The 3 EMA is comfortably above the 15EMA line and we are in the middle of the constricted Bollinger bands. The bands will expand with a break out now. Volumes are again low. I have already discussed ADX in detail and it remains to be Bullish but trendless.(I repeat that the ADX data as represented in the chart pasted is incorrect.) The value of ADX is 14. MACD remains to be bearish. RSI is bullish but looks down. Slow Stochastic is Bullish. TRIX is looking down. So all in all you can see the amount of confusion that the signals are generating. One can safely wait on the sidelines for the indicators to be in consonance with each other.

put call 13 aug 09 The way the Put call ratio is swinging above and below one – it seems that it is in the best interests of the operators to keep the markets range bound between 4700 and 4500/4300. A break beyond these levels will only make a trend and that would be interesting. All the same I would like to add that 4700 on the upside may turn out to be a tough nut to crack by the bulls.

So to summarise the Global cues are once again bearish. Technicals are mixed at the best and options data too show call and put writing changing every day – either we remain range bound till there is a definite thrust in one of the direction. The best strategy would be to sit on the sidelines. However if you are upto it then for longs keep stoploss 4459 and for shorts keep a stoploss of 4569. For day trading – buy above 4551 and sell below this level. Best of luck to everyone. May you all make money.


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