Sunday, July 27, 2008

Monday blues...........

US markets paved a green path for the Asia opening this week. Will we open green - worth betting a few dollars. The reason I say so is that the crude is still trading weak and that the financial giants of America will not be allowed to die. Club that with the fact that though we closed below the 38.2% fibonacci retracement - it was due to the blasts in the IT city that probably prompted the same. May not have been so had it not been this external terror factor. Also the indications on the charts still remain bullish. The present level of closing is strong support. Sprinkle another few facts that Sharp rally in last 10 days of almost 20% upswing, Sharp fall in crude prices, Commodity market showing signs of panic and a large no of lower circuits, for all the hulla of recession, US economy still has not been declared negative growth and FII funds are postive inflows in last 6-7 days. SBI has posted 15% rise in net despite MTM provisions and there is some satisfaction that inflation moderated. ;-)

That said - the fact remains that we closed below the 4315 level even though by three points and that is not too good. There has been follow up blasts continuing after the IT city and that bears are dragging their feet to the further upmove. We may not have the kind of gap up or gap down opening and the fight of the titans - namely the bulls and bears will spill over to this week and atleast on Monday there are not likely to be clear cut winners.

Just a fact that the 230 points that we gained on 23 jul has not been lost inspite of last two days of black candles and the bounce back with a white candle can still signal the continuation of the uptrend that has started last week.

The bullish indicators remain to be RSI, MACD, TRIX and ADX. The pull down indications are the TRIN (courtesy Jaggu) and StochRSI. I will not spell out the trend because I am just too afraid and secondly though I am personally of the opinion that the rally up is not still over - there are other stalwarts in the blogging world that feel otherwise. SO please do make your own assumptions. - Oh and green opening and a white candle can go a long way to show us light.

One of views of a Nifty analyst is: "According to me we are slowly and steadily moving towards 2954-3000 in months to come. This view will only change if we close firstly above 4664 and then 5158. According to me, when we touched 4539 last week, it has already created a stage or the stage has been set for 3040, which I have been mentioning since beginning of June."



geniusjaggu said...

trin(0.61) bullish for tomorrow...

any guess?rate hike or not???

there may not be any after all.

S S Cheema said...

Jaggu I do see the signs of bullishness and there is a feirce debate already raging whether the rates will hiked or not. I am really sorry but I do not have any answers - but I continue to hold my longs over for tomorrow.