Tuesday, July 15, 2008

The party is about to begin............ don't be naked with shorts

Many indicators are turning bullish - the pressure is now being kept up by politics to remain bearish - the day it is released - for good or for bad - we may see a good recovery from the lows and might give nightmares to shorts.

I reached back well past mid night so will not spend too much time and will go ahead with what I feel about the markets. As always a run down of the Europe and US - Europe closed fairly into the green, US then went nose diving south and that may be the main factor that the Asian markets that opened now are deep down in red. Nikkei 1.48% down, Hangseng down 2.69% and Strait Times down 1.69%. This alone will would have ensure that we open red.

The candles however tell a different story altogether. The bollinger band is closing in slowly - showing a reduced volatility. At this rate within this week perhaps the channel will be close enough to signal a breakout - which way the breakout will be - wait and see.

On 2nd jul onwards we had the markets going up steadily - on 10th we had a doji and that put the upmove to a temporary halt. 11th saw a black candle and yesterday a sort of a doji or a spinning top - basically indecision/lack of conviction probably to drop down. What next then? I feel we may have positive breakout anytime now. There are other indications to support this. For one MACD red line continues above blue and it is bullish. RSI is bullish but the Stoch RSI - that is called the indicator of indicators is overbought. This gives a opposite signal. The slow stochastic is below 80 that is considered a overbought zone and would have ordinarily given a sell signal. The redline here is below the blue line reinforcing the sell indication for the time being. The TRIN is bearish but the TRIX is looking up -- remember it is one of the leading indicators and is giving positive indication for the coming days.

Well the meat - we may open red and remain confused for the day. Close - as BJP, Samajwadi party, UPA or someone else - I cannot place my bets any way till 22nd.

Best of Luck to all. Make money - hedge your positions but for GOD sake do not hold naked shorts.



geniusjaggu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
S S Cheema said...

SOrry -- I meant TRIX - will correct

geniusjaggu said...

by the way,where r u now?
In chandigarh(plains) or shimla (Hills)???? ;)

S S Cheema said...

Back in Nasik - reached one thirty at night.

geniusjaggu said...

oh i c... :)
take a nice nap till 22 july..