Saturday, July 12, 2008

Water water every where ...... but not a drop to drink

Yeah - its true in a sense - there are good stocks lurking in every nook and corner but the one you touch turns dust before you can take the cup to the mouth to savour it. Well I did not have time to check the candles for last two days. When I opened the iCharts today I saw almost a Doji formed on 10th and followed by a good fall on 11th. Infact so much so that I pulled up charts of lot of stocks and many had made Doji on or around 10th. I say so for Nifty, L&T, BHEL etc. The sell out - I believe was a part of the lingering uncertainty for last so many days.

Till the time the political uncertainty is sorted out for good - the problems will remain - and the way the things are the upper targets of 4200 or 4400 etc which were being given are not likely to be met. The reason is simple - everyone was expecting that the 5 EMA will crossover the 200 EMA and we will have the market stabilising and looking up - as of the last days charts - it is not the case - the 5 and 20 EMA lines have dropped down and started their journey downwards again.

But then on the other hand we have MACD that gives us a bullish indicator and RSI too gives us a bullish indication. The MACD Red Line had crossed over the blue line and still remains above it. The RSI was on its way to cross the 50 marker but has looked down last two days. Nevertheless it still remains bullish. The slow stochastic's red line was for past few days above the blueline but on Friday converted on to the blueline -- it may go on to the over bought zone. The TRIX surprisingly is looking up and may crossover 1 marker. What it implies is that it may turn bullish if we close well for a few days. The TRIN on the other hand has been marked as bearish by Jaggu.

So - in a nutshell we can classify that our markets are as confused as the indicators and the indicators are as confused as our politicians. And that is the way I feel we will live for some time to come. The global indicators -- Europe closed way in red, US too closed red and the Asia opening will have a say on how we open. How the markets behave thereafter and how we close will be dictated by how our politicians behave.

I shall be travelling tomorrow and will just get the snippets of the markets on my GPRS phone. In all the probability the markets will play the yo-yo again. The best of luck to all -- especially the traders who can make use of these wild fluctuations.



Uma said...

so you're keeping in touch with markets and the rat you smelled is very much there (lol) but I think, if we do not break 3900 that would be very bullish. Just a wish for now.

preet said...

Uma: I agree with you on the account that one by one all indicators are turning bullish and the day the political angle disappears we will have a good run up - but till then - or till a trigger other wise is provided - I think this is the way we will be.