Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Saint and the three wishes…. Update for 04 Mar 09

I just finished watching a movie on the idiot box – Saint. That is the best thing to do I believe in these times. There in that fantastically paced movie the Saint makes three wishes for miracles. I too have my three wishes for the miracles also. The first – please improve the markets, second please improve the markets and the third please improve the markets. Am I asking for too much? In the present situation – perhaps. The Auto sales, home sales, manufacturing data and ofcourse the topping – Financial sector is bringing out one bad news after the other in US. The FIIs have provisionally sold 741 Cr worth and the DIIs lapped up 523 Cr worth. I still believe that we will live another day to find the bottom but the rate at which US is going down is worse. Their rating agencies are scoring off one nation/one investment idea after another – where do they think they will put their money in? Any way we have our own problems and they have their own. let us deal with our problems and they with theirs. Frankly we are neither a communist state nor a fanatically economy driven capitalist state. We are still somewhere in between. The communism has proved to be a failure – the capitalism is proving to be a failure so. I feel this middle path gives us the best of both the worlds. I have on a number of occasions in the past said categorically – if we were totally in communist grip – we have already seen the taste of the Babu Raj, on the other hand pure capitalism without checks in place will sell your mother-in-law to you at a price point where keeping or throwing her away are both out of question. Ask those who have stuck deals in property at the peak price points a few months back.Daily 03 Mar 09

Sorry to waste everyone time on this bull. It will never come to an end. There will always be something worse. The tumble down is just not stopping at the moment. After a red Asia the Europe too closed red – the only solace that it was that losses were mixed ranging from –3.14% FTSE, Dax down 0.52% and CAC down 1.04%. This is after most of the indices oscillating green off and on. US too started green – went red – green again and finally ended red but losses were somewhat modest. Dow down 0.55%, Nasdaq down 0.14% and S&P down 0.64%.Picture1

The Nifty showed a second black candle and if we have another black candle today then it completes the third black candle – the “Three Black Crows” The future is not good if it is so – so let us pray. The volumes were below average. ADX is strengthening the downside trend. MACD negative divergence is increasing. RSI shows weakness – it is bearish. Slow stochastic  red line is below blue line and – no it is not oversold – so I do not see hope on that context.

The markets yesterday was around the Pivot line only but during the last hour the markets could not hold the pivot broke below with momentum actually breaking the S 1 also. Not good is the only thing that I can say.

The pivot levels for tomorrow are as under…

R3 2765 was 2869 yesterday 
R2 2717
R1 2669
Pivot 2640 was 2699 yesterday
S1 2592
S2 2563
S3 2515 was 2529 yesterday
Projected High Range 2655 to 2693
Projected Low Range 2684 to 2644
Fib Projected High 2708
Fib Projected Low 2590

icici bank 03 MarI am also attaching the chart for ICICI bank alongwith for those who care. It seems oversold

This is all that I have for today. Best of luck to everyone.