Monday, March 23, 2009

And the market continues to surge forward… Update for 24 Mar 09

AirShowDeolali This is one photograph that I clicked today during Surya Kiran’s display in Nashik today morning. I will be uploading some more photographs in the Army Aviation site later. It reminded my days of flying fixed wings during my basic training and during the Instructor’s course.

The markets have surged forward on boosters. It did not give a damn to being over bought or all the tons of indicators. In any case other than a handful of indicators that lead or the oscillators showing overbought condition – all the rest are trailing and have turned around to say – we are bullish. I am a man with my feet in two boats – as usually all analysts – or those who call themselves analysts are. Remember my past few posts and in particular the one written on 15 March – I quote “The highest expected is 3800 on Nifty – and please for GOD’s sake do not brush this away – it has  a substance. The second level that is being talked about is 3400 – and finally the last level that is being talked about is the 2900 level.” My! My! if that call of mine is getting so close to be true then what bugs me? What makes me think that I am on two boats? While yes it is true that we are beating one resistance after another to climb higher – I am very sure in my mind that there have to be times and levels where we stop/think/consolidate as we move on. My biggest worry stems from the fact that if we are still in bear market and this is indeed a bear rally then we are in for a trouble. Such bursts of euphoria generally tend to die down extremely harshly, especially if the rate of going up is 200-300 points on nifty every week. So though I did say that we can have a surprise rally in our hands – the present upswing can be a dangerous time to lay bets. All the same – the markets do know what they are doing and I am also sure I will tread this path with extreme caution. Jaggu in his blog says that the bull rally will start when we cross the 200 EMA. I agree with him – because I am sure that he is right. (you can reach his blog by clicking his name). I have included the 200 EMA line in the chart today and you can see where it trails – up at 3400 levels.Daily 23 Mar 09

The global cues continue to rock. Asia opened green and never looked back – closing at the highest levels for the day – Nikkei up 3.39%, Hang Seng up 4.78% and Strait Times up 4.21%. Europe too opened green and then tried to dip towards the zero line – but finally closing – FTSE up 3.17%, DAX up 2.81% and CAC up 2.79%. US sees green in the midsession of four and a half percentage point. It would be interesting to see where the US ends.

Our candles meanwhile – the candle today was exceptionally strong, tall and white one. It comes after four day of the markets deli dallying – and it has in one go violated the upper bollinger band. I had not expected it at all. The volumes are 101% of last 50 day average. ADX looks up and confuses me – so this is the second day I will not try to read into the ADX and keep it aside. RSI is bullish as hell and like I explained in my study of markets for last two years – it is trailing above average – and may not stay at these levels if we still call ourselves in a bear markets. Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought and the last time we saw it at these levels for so long was when we saw an attempt to rally in may and Dec last year. Incidentally the RSI was also at these levels and the ADX was showing greater strength at those two times.

Let us see the Pivot data for tomorrow.

R3 3091 against 2859 yesterday
R2 3040
R1 2989
Pivot 2898 against 2798 yesterday
S1 2847
S2 2756
S3 2705 against 2738 yesterday
Projected High Range 2944 to 3015
Projected Low Range 2883 to 2812
Fib Projected High 2987
Fib Projected Low 2768

Notice the R3 shoot up with the S3 virtually at the same level? May signal volatility in tomorrow’s session.

And Oh! before I pen off – thanks to 117 people who read my blog and article at yesterday. Thanks as not one had the courtesy to rate my blog except of course my father – now that I know where we stand in our attempt for a respectful, self meaning relationship…



geniusjaggu said...

good mrng paaji,
first 5 star from me...

reg rating your blog...
review mein kya write karen aur when i write something,tat bloody site(,instead of asking to post a review),why its asking for gmail password :(

S S Cheema said...

jaggu update kar de apna blog pehle - I have refreshed your page about 10 times now. US is up 7 odd % and yesterday both FIIs and DIIs bought 350 crore plus worth in our markets.

Uma said...

cheema, your blog has the most comprehensive roundups

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