Sunday, March 15, 2009

So we closed at the best levels… Update for 16 Mar 09

Yes – as we had expected and I had written about in the last update on my blog – we did close at the highest point for the day. Yes there was a strong apprehension in my mind that being a Friday we may have a closing that might pull us down – but like I had expected some time ago – that the recovery – whenever it comes will be forceful. How long or how high is open to speculation. The highest expected is 3800 on Nifty – and please for GOD’s sake do not brush this away – it has  a substance. The second level that is being talked about is 3400 – and finally the last level that is being talked about is the 2900 level. Whichever level we go too – remember the level yet to be crossed will most likely to be a resistance and once crossed – a support. Daily 13 mar 09

Let us now move away from the dream world and see the near future. On the Global cues – Asia celebrated the continued rise of US indices and Nikkei closed 5.15% up, Hang Seng up 4.37% and Strait Times up 5.62%. Europe opened well and tried to test higher highs – but was some how not confident – finally ending mixed to flat with a upward bias. FTSE was 1.12% up, DAX 0.07% in red and CAC up 0.42%. US too was indecisive really – opening flat, going green and dropping red and finally ending green. DOW closed up 0.75%, Nasdaq up 0.38% and S&P up 0.77%. The markets in US have rallied on an average 10% and that is a great bloody thing. The markets had turned oversold.

Coming to the candles, the candle that was formed on Friday was white and actually beautiful. It has been so long since we have seen a candle this beautiful.Another white candle on Monday can change the short term outlook – but the point is IF we close green. We are still not the middle of the Bollinger bands and that is the reason I am confident that we have a chance with this kind of momentum. 2765 is the next resistance that I expect to be touched but not breached.That level also corresponds to somewhere the middle of Bollinger bands – and that is where ideally we should take a breather – a couple of days. 5 EMA is trying to look up and cross the 20 EMA and that is good news. Volumes were – let us say average. ADX down swing has lost strength. But mind you it still favours the bears. The MACD divergence has reduced significantly. RSI – going by what I explained in the presentation day before – will give us a day or so of upswing. It looks good at the moment. Slow Stochastic are oscillating in favour of the bulls. TRIX is flat – that is good in the sense that it is an leading indicator and gives us some relief.

Let us lee the pivot levels for tomorrow ;-)

R3 2836 as compared to 2718 on Friday 
R2 2797
R1 2758
Pivot 2687 as compared to 2612 on Friday
S1 2648
S2 2577
S3 2538 as compared to 2506 on Friday
Projected High Range 2722 to 2777
Projected Low Range 2674 to 2619
Fib Projected High 2755
Fib Projected Low 2586

I wish all the best for the trading on Monday and am sure that those who had kept the longs will benefit. Hedge your longs and do not throw them away – you just don’t know how long or how much up this swing will take us.

I have lately started relying on the options data also so here we go…

put call ratio

Option Pain



Uma said...

thank you for the hard work on technicals n options data cheema!

Meher said...

you are welcome Uma - I landed in Pune on saturday. It has changed a lot since I last saw it in 1989. The construction has reached the airport at Lohegaon. It used to be so much far away from the city then!

S S Cheema said...

Sorry - got logged in from my Daughter's ID

Uma said...

Sorry missed your message about the Pune trip! Now you're traveling again? So I guess it's out of Pune?