Friday, April 24, 2009

200 DMA with the bulls… Update for 24 Apr 09

So the Dip Dop Continues with the bulls gaining upper hand in the last round. The candle yesterday was nice and white.  It was achieved with bad results from Reliance – but classified better than expected. Day 23 Apr 09All said and done the bulls put up quite a show on an otherwise unexpected way. The market opened flat and tested the crucial spot nifty level of 3300, never dared to test the S1 and bounced back never to look back again. It breached – the 200 DMA – and that has taken six trading sessions for the bulls to do that. Look at the chart for the day – it broke above pivot and got good support from it – running up after the half time. R2 was on the higher end and was tested but could not be sustained. The chart that you see is the 3 min chart so mind you the high point registered is not the one actually achieved. See how the Pivot point was tested before the markets surged up.

As to the global cues for today – the Europe was not good. It closed in red with FTSE closing 0.31% in red, DAX closing 1.22% and CAC closing 0.55% in red. US opened flat –went red for the majority of the time and then recovering close to the market closing to end in green. Dow was up 0.89%, Nasdaq was 0.37% green and S&P was 0.99% green. GM has planned to shout down 13 assembly plants for upto 11 weeks and that is likely to disrupt lives of almost 24,000 workers. In Asia  Nikkei has opened and opened red – now recovered to go green – but only 0.5 points or 0.01%. Strait Times too opened red and trying to recover.

Daily 23 Apr 09 On the charts though the pattern is a bullish engulfing pattern. It gets beaten by being a perfect pattern as the opening was a point higher than yesterday’s closing by just one point. Like I said we have broken above the 200 EMA along with 5 EMA and the volumes were almost a replica of what we had day before. Also we are on to making higher top with higher bottom.

Options pain 23 Apr 09

The candle has also engulfed last three days of bearish candles too. ADX remains bullish still and so does MACD even though the divergence is a mere a few points. The RSI too is bullish and is going back to its home for couple of days now – overbought zone. Slow Stochastic too has turned bullish and comfortably where it can show a run up for a few days.

put call ratio 23 Apr 09

The option pain is almost the same option Put / Call ratio has improved in favour of the calls by a bit. But the ratio is still not enough for the markets to take a fall.

Let us see the pivot data now –

R3 3568 against 3506
R2 3519 against 3447
R1 3471 against 3388
Pivot 3390 against 3342
S1 3342 against 3283
S2 3261 against 3237
S3 3213 against 3178
Projected High Range 3431 to 3495
Projected Low Range 3382 to 3318
Fib Projected High 3474
Fib Projected Low 3274

Frankly there is nothing against the markets to go higher now. It would be interesting to note the closing of the indices this month. The closing has been advanced by a day for the markets from 30 Apr to 29 Apr. So let us brace up. Four trading days left including today.




Uma said...

That was a good one!

"bottle of scotch -- 1k
expected profits -- 2 k
joy of making money on stocks --priceless"

your blogposts and trading strategies are truly getting to the next level.

S S Cheema said...

Uma: there are some people that I respect for the foresight and the knack on the markets - and believe me - this comment coming from you is a real treat.

You are one of the first bloggers on stock markets I know and you are aware of my aim - I have to reach a level of proficiency that I desire...