Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Double guessing markets… Update for 02 Apr 09

I don’t know what is happening in the markets and there is no use double guessing where the markets are off too. I also do not know who is fooling whom. Let us see the small table I prepared below: -






25 Mar 348.65 8.92
26 Mar 1290.74 -461.87
27 Mar 80.43 42.98
30 Mar -452.32 -49.38
31 Mar -583.65 1039.07
01 Apr 173.75 11.6

I really do not know what to make out of this data – it seems that they are as confused as we are. FIIs buy DIIs sell, DIIs buy FIIs sell. When both buy the figures show caution – the volumes are low. There was a theory that the run up that was there on 31st was due to the mutual funds trying to improve NAV of their funds – a fully plausible explanation. The only problem that I am having is that the technicals too are getting somewhat confused with no clear cut indications any more. The technical possibility of the markets going down remains but then the fact remains that we are not doing so. And the facts is only the markets and nothing else really – are we just trying to justify what the market is doing rather than purely trying to read the technicals? Well there has to be the element of “human factor” that cannot ignore what is happening around. I try to read the markets and then try to correlate – when I cannot I get confused. Bloody old computer I have there perhaps. The fact remains that the variables are just too many. Okay – let me do it once yet again.  daily 01 Apr 09

The global cues… Asia was mixed with a positive bias. Nikkei was up 2.99%, Hang Seng down 0.42% and Strait Times up in green 0.13%. The Europe has done what most of the markets have been doing – spend the majority of the time in red and then close to the closing – jump into green with vengeance. FTSE closed up 0.75% and DAX was up 1.13% and CAC up 1.15%. US started the day in red but by the mid session now it is well into green – Dow is up 1.49%, Nasdaq is up 1.03% and S&P up 1.24% and I am not taking sides or giving ideas as to where it might end. Yahoo says that the bank data is lifting the wall street. It says that the home sales data and the factory data says that the slump could be moderating.

The candle yesterday was trying to break the influence of the black candle yesterday but could not pierce the range in a worth while manner. If however we take both the candles as one (can do so as the bodies are not really over lapping) then it just about pierce the black candle. This may give strength to the markets. All the same we still remain trapped in the range – which we have been seeing for some time now. The volume has been 127% of the last 50 day average. We are no longer trailing the upper edge of the Bollinger band. 5EMA still remains over the 100 EMA and so does 20 EMA trail above the 50 EMA. ADX is not showing strength still. The MACD bullish divergence remains somewhat the same as before. The slow stochastic are now reaching the 50 marker with the red line below the blue line and that remains bearish. RSI is looking up and bullish and once again entering the overbought zone. It will be interesting how long we remain overbought.

Let us have a look at the options data – it has turned interesting and you can download the chart and compare with the charts I have posted in past. Option pain 01 Apr 09















Put call ratio 01 Apr

I will call it off today without the Pivot data. This week is only one more trading day that is tomorrow – see what happens and who carries on the position over the long weekend. Best of luck…



Uma said...

good morning! I see that on April 1 you didn't try to pull any prank on your readers a la jaggubhai lol

S S Cheema said...

no I am a serious soul Ha!

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