Finally…. the markets behaved…

It was disgusting like I have said so many times before the way our markets were behaving – but why should I get disgusting – this was exactly how the markets were behaving in the so called secular bull run. There were no fundamentals supporting the kind of run up that was there and the stocks just refused to slow down or pause on their run up. If that was so then why should the markets listen to us on their way down – they should now not listen to any good news coming their way and continue their fall. So far so good. But then there should have been a breather and it is that overdue breather from the fall that we were really looking forward too. That has come so like I have been saying for so many days – it is just to sit back and watch if you were not already long and wait for the wonderful time to short – nothing really can substitute for patience at all. See going by the pure physical data for the last four-five months I have come to a conclusion that the market has moved in a range – depending upon a month anywhere from 500 points to 1000 points. Take a pick at two such points – technically speaking – and we see that we went long in one case with a single CA/PA – and suppose the point was not the bottom – and we paid a premium of 100 odd points for a fairly close CA/PA – then by the end of the month we had at the most lost the premium paid or if we were lucky would have made 20 K in 500 point rally and max about 45 k in a thousand point rally. (Please do take the trouble of defining the rally >> index going up and the rally >> index going down) Now don’t be impressed by such mathematics and good looking calculations. The fact is that I did not made any money – or let me put it this way I did not make as much money. But why? because I lack a control over myself, I am fickle minded, I let my losses run till I am out of money and would have cut the profits when the market was just making the move. Uh!! Only this? well not really – I am afraid at one moment and greedy like a dog at the other moment. Then why the hell cannot I remain away from all this. Because I feel that I can win/I feel I can make a lots of money/I love gambling/I made money last year. WoW – that are all looser scripts. What is missing in them? The definite will to win/a plan to make it happen. What is planning? having a good charting software? Planning that I will make money? Putting in hard work? What kind of hard work?  I do not lack a single bit on all of the above accounts – but still I did not win – I made small money okay – but I did not win.

Now here I come to the next part – We are here as an online community to learn and teach. And if that makes anyone of us win and take home a killing – it would be the greatest gift of my life – mind you I am talking about anyone taking home profits and not me! I will do it eventually and I have decided upon it a long time back. I have a score to settle with these DIs, FIIs or whosoever took my money for past one year. I had decided that eventually I will graduate on to giving calls – I mean buy – sell. but in the past eight odd months of blogging I am still some time away to do that.  There will be a time – till then bear with me.

I nave now two days worth of story to tell you. The Global cues…. well the Asia was good the first day over. Nikkei had ended 5.2% up, Hang Seng was up a good 8.66% up. Strait Times was closed.  Europe decided to outdo Asia and was up 6-8%. FTSE up 6.19%, Dax 7.63% up and CAC up 8.68%. US also closed well in green inspite of the Tribune Co filing for bankruptcy. The second day continued its good run up with Europe starting the day red and climbing and closing green. FTSE was up 1.89%, Dax up 1.34% and CAC up 1.55%. US then could not sustain this everyday rally up. Finally yesterday the Dow lost 242 points to close 2.72% red, Nasdaq down 1.55% and S&P down 2.31%. In Asia today only Nikkei has opened and it opened mildly red and climbed half a percent up in green. It is too early to say where it will go.

The candle yesterday – though white was not particularly good. I would have personally preferred that it closes above 2800 or 2840 – but that was not to be and it traded well above 2800 – touched just above the R2 and then closed just below the R1 level. It was some how to be expected. There is still no faith that this run-up will last too long and there was a holiday – it could have jittered anyone. So sell off did take place but it negated the black candle of day before. The candle had a large lower body and an upper wick. As a candle however does not give a bad indication. The Bollinger bands have contracted a bit more. Red 5 EMA line is a bit closer to the 20 EMA but the crossover that I expected is still eluding us. Volumes were bit less than a day before. MACD divergence has increased a bit more and red line is comfortably above the blue line. RSI is good and bullish, it is the StochRSI that is entering the overbought zone so may be a cause of little worry.  Slow Stochastic red line is comfortably above the blue line. TRIX is still facing up and looks good as ever. So seeing all this – ideally the ball should continue rolling up.

Okay – the Pivot data for the day…

Pivot data…
R3 23008 against 2941 monday
R2 2933
R1 2858
Pivot 2786 against 2745 monday
S1 2711
S2 2639
S3 2564 against 2549 monday
Projected High Range 2822 to 2896
Projected Low Range 2826 to 2752
Fib Projected High 2900
Fib Projected Low 2674

have you noticed the Pivot data – the upper R3 has moved up to above 3000 mark. Hope we touch it just for happiness sake.

Best of luck to everyone for a good day tomorrow.

Confused yet????

Don't be -- this tango as before is to keep you >>>> the retail investor on the loosing side. See the markets were oversold... oversold... oversold and we kept standing at the same place with fairly low volumes. Inspite of all this the indicators could not be turned to show bearish times. Then there was a day of thanksgiving where the markets gave a good run up inspite of not so good global cues. Then suddenly there was a talk of markets will go up, the very next day saw good profit taking or perhaps also the build up of short positions. Again in the air was a talk of – I told you so type – we will not sustain at these high levels… I feel that they have been wrong – there would be retail investor who would have not really entered the market and in any case there would have been some who would have jittered out on friday – the way the markets showed weakness. The markets should ideally continue to go up – helped by all the announcements that are coming from the govt to help – retail, banking, finance and constructions etc. I believe that this is so orchestered that the markets keep going up for one reason or the other till the elections so that the performance looks good for the govt in chair. Hey that was hypothetical – but I am sure that this would be working in some one’s mind. Prices of petrol and diesel have been dropped – still keeping some leeway in hand to announce just a little bit more – when? Ofcourse the coming round of elections will be the time. As for the positive news now – FIIs selling is not what it was used to be. They have sold just about 4-5 crores worth on friday. Petrol is cheaper by Rs 5/- and Diesel down by Rs 2/-, Repo rate has been cut by a 100 basis points against the expected 50 to 75 points by the markets. The next phase will include rate cuts by banks – though they are seeming to be defiant – but that is the way they will go – it is just a matter of time. The real estate will also get a small lease of life – I remember listening on idiot box – a lot of builders are resisting dropping prices of real estate – they might get another few weeks / months of joy – but ultimately will once again come under pressure – it is just a matter of time once again.

The global cues are good. It was really not so but some way down the line the things changed. Nikkei opened green, went red went green and closed flat at –0.08% red. Hang Seng closed green up 2.49% and Strait Times up 0.94%. Europe opened red and went down deeper red to close at the lowest levels for the day. FTSE closed 2.74% red, Dax down 4.0% and CAC down 5.48%. US was interesting – they opened red (as expected) – traded in red for  the majority of the day and then climbed all the way to close better than 3% up. Dow was up 3.09%, Nasdaq up 4.41% and S&P up 3.65%. Actually as far as US is concerned – they are bullish – but are struggling to find the pattern much like us. This may take the US markets up for a few days/weeks.

The candles are good – the Bollinger bands are still contracting and mind you the break out is yet to happen and I have a feeling that it will be a violent one – the pressure is building up. This time over the candles are along the mid of the band – give or take some and the candles look like having life enough to cross over into the upper band (mid way and above). Bollinger band had generated a buy signal on 2 1th Nov. 5 EMA line is slowly and steadily going up and will cross the 20 EMA line giving a good bullish indication. The volumes were same as before so nothing really to talk about. MACD positive move remains strong and it had generated a buy on 03 Nov. Red line is above the blue line and divergence increasing. RSI is in a bullish mode – slowly and steadily moving up. On friday inspite of it being a day in red the Slow Stochastic showed a positive move by the red line remaining above the blue line. TRIX is facing up so that remains a good indication of the times to come. Like I have being saying there will be a time to short and this is not the time.

Pivot data…
R3 2941 against 2775 friday
R2 2865
R1 2789
Pivot 2745 against 2653 friday
S1 2669
S2 2625
S3 2549 against 2531 friday
Projected High Range 2767 to 2827
Projected Low Range 2814 to 2754
Fib Projected High 2853
Fib Projected Low 2668

Best of luck to everyone for a good day tomorrow.

Sorry

I will not be able to update the blog today.

I am sick… of this directionless market…

If it breaks upwards then I will celebrate because I was right all this while – if it goes down then atleast I will know that I was wrong. Now waiting for something to happen has become the worst thing in my life now-a-days. Even US feels so – they are so sick of the bad news and the worthless data that is pouring in that they sometimes disregard it and set it aside to show some movement. What are we waiting for? GOD only knows. Perhaps the smartest thing possible is being done by the idiot box – they give a high target one day and a low target the other – now they have done is for so many days at a stretch  that any good move – whether positive or negative they can claim it as a trophy - ‘I said so…’. Okay now – the economic data that has come out in US is bad as expected. As the data poured in about the state of the US economy the US investors shook their head in disbelief – after  it was all done – the markets took a swing to higher levels as investors and analysts say that most of the bad news ahs already been priced into the markets shown by the huge declines in the past two months. There was also a news doing round in the markets that the hedge funds have stopped selling as aggressively as they were doing in the past. The news included – drop in productivity, a pullback in services and the Federal Reserve’s finding of a worsening economic conditions across the country. Two thoughts worth taking note of  - the  US positive streak for past nine days with the exception of Monday –Firstly, some say that the present upswing is in no way fundamental and that it is just wishful thinking. The second thought is that though the turbulence will continue – the worst is over. Take your pick for whatever it is worth.

Well to the global cues not. Asia opened positive (unlike us – wonder what is wrong with us) and remained basically positive ending – Nikkei 1.79% up,Hang Seng up 1.36% up and Strait Times flat 0.08% up. Europe was negative the entire day and then by the end showed a good recovery inspite of US futures giving negative cues. FTSE was up 1.14%, Dax up 0.78% and CAC 0.44% up. The US was well into the red territory to start the day with. then with effort it moved up in green territory. As the economic data flowed in the markets plunged down – then with a few sprinkles of good news the markets bounced back in positive territory once again to end the day in green – up almost 2% +. Dow was up 2.05%, Nasdaq up 2.94% and S&P up 2.58%.

On the candles – there is just nothing that is new. The candle was almost a perfect Doji. the Bollinger bands are there where they were yesterday, the day before, the day to day before…. sorry just get carried away. The 5 EMA line is still below the 20 EMA line. Volumes a bit better than yesterday. MACD still shows a positive divergence. RSI is good and bullish. Slow Stochastic looking down with the red line still below the blue line. TRIX is still good and green looking up.

Pivot data…
R3 2775 against 2774 yesterday
R2 2735
R1 2695
Pivot 2653 against 2633 yesterday
S1 2613
S2 2571
S3 2531 against 2492 yesterday
Projected High Range 2674 to 2715
Projected Low Range 2670 to 2629
Fib Projected High 2715
Fib Projected Low 2588

Best of luck for trading today.

Hey don’t take the markets to be bad…..

0700hrs 03 Dec 08: US markets have ended 3 to four percent points in green. Before closing the markets looked like diving in red but recovered. Nikkei opened green but is now lower than the opening levels. Strait Times are about a percent and few points up.

02 Dec 08: The markets have actually held out the otherwise bad Global cues and non bothered govt here. Take a look at the crude – it is now a days a good barometer of where we are heading towards – crude up – stock up, crude down – stock down. Inspite of all the cues and the hype of lower targets – the markets survived and survived well. they recovered from the lows of the day – or to say the start of the day and there was actually a strong possibility that the markets would have gone green. The reason among the circles is that though is is a known fact that the production will reduce – the coming results of companies may be extremely bad – but the fact remains that the valuations at the moment are good and lower levels – see some sort of buying support that at the moment does not allow the markets to sustain fearlessly at the lower levels. It was  expected that we will not break the S2 on the lower side and so it was. Today as I write the rally in US continues neutralising upto 1/3rd of the losses the markets made on maniac monday. So far so good. The second thing that pays up in mind is that the so called recession is already a year old. Does everyone really think that this will turn out to be worse than or equivalent of “The Great Depression?” – forget it! It is bad – agreed but there will be solutions too. There is a few billion people in Asia and Africa – who given the right environment will take the consumption and demand to higher levels. Take China and Indian example. You think our demand has disappeared? It is lurking and will pop up given the right environment. I may not really approve of it but the Auto bailout plan in US seems to be around the corner and that would give another boost to the markets for once. Eventually we may fall – okay but at the moment all the indicators are pointing up.

Okay – enough! let me start with the facts at hand. The Global cues forced Asia to start low and there was no reason that came during the course of the day to take the markets towards the recovery. Nikkei opened low – dropped lower and eventually closed 6.35% down in red. Hang Seng was down 4.98% and Strait Times was down 3.02%. Except for us and Strait Times – Nikkei and Hang Seng did not attempt a recovery. Europe opened flat with a negative bias – thereafter during the course of the day the markets dived down and then recovered to close comfortably in green. FTSE up 1.41%, DAX up 3.12% and CAC up 2.35%. So far so good. – now comes the US opening. The US opened flat facing green and has now towards the mid session climbed – Dow up 2.82%, Nasdaq up 3.35% and S&P up 3.41%. There is all the likely hood of the US closing green – that is if there is no surprise that crops up.

On the candlesticks front the news is not all good. The third day of onslaught has now stated turning the tables. It has turned missed but weighs still a bit heavy on bullish side. The candle is a hammer. If we take last three days of candles that show down movement (cannot call it a trend) then this hammer calls for a reversal.  The Bollinger bands have expanded a bit. The 5 EMA line is looking down and no longer trying to face up to attempt a 20 EMA crossover. The volumes once again were low. MACD positive divergence has reduced a bit. RSI though still bullish – looks down. On slow Stochastic the red line is firmly below the blue line and red line has already crossed below the 50 marker. And the cherry – TRIX still looks up. I go by the TRIX’s way – it say bullish – I go bullish.

Pivot data…
R3 2774 against 2995 yesterday
R2 2735
R1 2696
Pivot 2633 against 2727 yesterday
S1 2594
S2 2531
S3 2492 against 2460 yesterday
Projected High Range 2664 to 2715
Projected Low Range 2628 to 2577
Fib Projected High 2699
Fib Projected Low 2542

We need to break up the R2 level atleast tomorrow.

Who is the culprit?..... The Bears? or the Bulls?

Ofcourse not - the culprits are the Firangis - LOL. Nothing can really work with this kind of Global cues. No chance of recovery when DOW falls 700 odd points - no do not get me wrong - ofcourse the US does not open while we trade but the cues start pouring in with the Europe trading and the US futures giving the direction of opening. When the global markets enjoyed the upswing we had our own problems - now when we thought that our recovery will start for the stocks to catch up the lost ground the Global cues have turned the tables once again and they are weak like hell once again. The markets are also being manipulated to suite a certain number of operators. The FIIs and DIs were net buyers but the quantity was very low - this kept the volume extremely low and perhaps this was the reason that the markets - on otherwise good wicket - turned around to close negative like hell. There are not too many players in the markets now a days. Okay all the blame is not on global cues only - the sales figures from the auto stocks helped bears as the figures were bad. And do not worry we are not the only one in this situation - Bank of Japan too has called for a meeting today(02Dec) kick start the economy. The official line from US is that the country has been in recession from Dec 07.

Asia yesterday was mixed - Nikkei down 1.35%, Hang Seng up 1.59% and Strait Times down 2.44%. Europe opened flat with little negative bias and then dropped never to look up again. FTSE was down - closing 5.19% down, DAX down 5.88% and CAC down 5.59%. US did it again by dropping down 680 points - clocking fourth worst drop ever and closed well in red at the lowest levels for the day. DOw was down 7.70%, Nasdaq was down 8.95% and S&P down 8.93%. Yahoo finance says - I quote "....wall street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of recession..."

We came close to the crossing over to the top half of the Bollinger bands. The red 5 EMA line was threatening to cross the 20 EMA line but alas the black candle had to step in. The Bollinger bands are about the same width as before. The volumes as mentioned earlier - are less. MACD positive divergence remains so inspite of the black candle the mood may remain good for some time. RSI looked down because of yesterday - but good so far. Slow stochastic is one indicator that has turned sides. the red line has crossed over below the blue line before reaching the overbought zone. TRIX continues to look up - so even being on the loosing side I remain positive for third consecutive day.

Pivot data…

R3 2995 against 2868 last
R2 2890
R1 2786
Pivot 2727 against 2741 Last
S1 2623
S2 2564
S3 2460 against 2614 Last
Projected High Range 2757 to 2838
Projected Low Range 2825 to 2744
Fib Projected High 2876
Fib Projected Low 2624

A weak opening is certain considering the global cues but should watch out for the recovery towards the afternoon. Crude at 50$ a barrel. What the heck 1/3rd from its high and OPEC now wants to convene a meating and see how the prices can be kept stable at higher levels - LOL