Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Finally…. the markets behaved…

It was disgusting like I have said so many times before the way our markets were behaving – but why should I get disgusting – this was exactly how the markets were behaving in the so called secular bull run. There were no fundamentals supporting the kind of run up that was there and the stocks just refused to slow down or pause on their run up. If that was so then why should the markets listen to us on their way down – they should now not listen to any good news coming their way and continue their fall. So far so good. But then there should have been a breather and it is that overdue breather from the fall that we were really looking forward too. That has come so like I have been saying for so many days – it is just to sit back and watch if you were not already long and wait for the wonderful time to short – nothing really can substitute for patience at all. See going by the pure physical data for the last four-five months I have come to a conclusion that the market has moved in a range – depending upon a month anywhere from 500 points to 1000 points. Take a pick at two such points – technically speaking – and we see that we went long in one case with a single CA/PA – and suppose the point was not the bottom – and we paid a premium of 100 odd points for a fairly close CA/PA – then by the end of the month we had at the most lost the premium paid or if we were lucky would have made 20 K in 500 point rally and max about 45 k in a thousand point rally. (Please do take the trouble of defining the rally >> index going up and the rally >> index going down) Now don’t be impressed by such mathematics and good looking calculations. The fact is that I did not made any money – or let me put it this way I did not make as much money. But why? because I lack a control over myself, I am fickle minded, I let my losses run till I am out of money and would have cut the profits when the market was just making the move. Uh!! Only this? well not really – I am afraid at one moment and greedy like a dog at the other moment. Then why the hell cannot I remain away from all this. Because I feel that I can win/I feel I can make a lots of money/I love gambling/I made money last year. WoW – that are all looser scripts. What is missing in them? The definite will to win/a plan to make it happen. What is planning? having a good charting software? Planning that I will make money? Putting in hard work? What kind of hard work?  I do not lack a single bit on all of the above accounts – but still I did not win – I made small money okay – but I did not win.bearmkt

Now here I come to the next part – We are here as an online community to learn and teach. And if that makes anyone of us win and take home a killing – it would be the greatest gift of my life – mind you I am talking about anyone taking home profits and not me! I will do it eventually and I have decided upon it a long time back. I have a score to settle with these DIs, FIIs or whosoever took my money for past one year. I had decided that eventually I will graduate on to giving calls – I mean buy – sell. but in the past eight odd months of blogging I am still some time away to do that.  There will be a time – till then bear with me.

I nave now two days worth of story to tell you. The Global cues…. well the Asia was good the first day over. Nikkei had ended 5.2% up, Hang Seng was up a good 8.66% up. Strait Times was closed.  Europe decided to outdo Asia and was up 6-8%. FTSE up 6.19%, Dax 7.63% up and CAC up 8.68%. US also closed well in green inspite of the Tribune Co filing for bankruptcy. The second day continued its good run up with Europe starting the day red and climbing and closing green. FTSE was up 1.89%, Dax up 1.34% and CAC up 1.55%. US then could not sustain this everyday rally up. Finally yesterday the Dow lost 242 points to close 2.72% red, Nasdaq down 1.55% and S&P down 2.31%. In Asia today only Nikkei has opened and it opened mildly red and climbed half a percent up in green. It is too early to say where it will go.getImageFromSession.php

The candle yesterday – though white was not particularly good. I would have personally preferred that it closes above 2800 or 2840 – but that was not to be and it traded well above 2800 – touched just above the R2 and then closed just below the R1 level. It was some how to be expected. There is still no faith that this run-up will last too long and there was a holiday – it could have jittered anyone. So sell off did take place but it negated the black candle of day before. The candle had a large lower body and an upper wick. As a candle however does not give a bad indication. The Bollinger bands have contracted a bit more. Red 5 EMA line is a bit closer to the 20 EMA but the crossover that I expected is still eluding us. Volumes were bit less than a day before. MACD divergence has increased a bit more and red line is comfortably above the blue line. RSI is good and bullish, it is the StochRSI that is entering the overbought zone so may be a cause of little worry.  Slow Stochastic red line is comfortably above the blue line. TRIX is still facing up and looks good as ever. So seeing all this – ideally the ball should continue rolling up.

Okay – the Pivot data for the day…

Pivot data…
R3 23008 against 2941 monday
R2 2933
R1 2858
Pivot 2786 against 2745 monday
S1 2711
S2 2639
S3 2564 against 2549 monday
Projected High Range 2822 to 2896
Projected Low Range 2826 to 2752
Fib Projected High 2900
Fib Projected Low 2674

have you noticed the Pivot data – the upper R3 has moved up to above 3000 mark. Hope we touch it just for happiness sake.

Best of luck to everyone for a good day tomorrow.