Thursday, December 18, 2008

Confused?…. don’t worry …. you are not the only one…

Markets are seeking direction and there is confusion galore… it is not that the confusion is our state of mind only. It is so in rest of Asia, Europe and US. So many things are playing on the mind of investors perhaps. Is it to get any worse? The markets are generally known to take a view forward – that is a quarter, perhaps a few quarters ahead – but for the markets to have confidence in that future outlook just does not seems to come. The bad news just keeps on getting worse. The good news hardly gets bigger or better. So we are in a hang fire where the technical try to take us to higher levels and the fundamentals pull us down. Remember what I had thought loudly yesterday on the reduction of interest rates in US? the debate around the same points is there now in US and the euphoria of 0% rate of interest and the utility is being questioned and the markets fell – well not really hard but the kind of upswing they showed on the announcement of the same is down and out – now this debate will continue and let us see where we reach when we are at the end of the road.getImageFromSession.php

I am already late in posting this so I will hurry up and leave touching controversial thought process to myself. The markets yesterday were cautious to say the least – they kept both bearish and bullish well within the striking distance – and atleast as far as we were concerned struck and went the bearish way. Europe was also in the same state – FTSE opened green – fell down and then recovered to the flat line closing just 0.35% in green, DAX was down 0.46% and CAC was in red 0.30%. US opened red – closed red red with a good attempt to go green. Finally Dow closed 1.12% in red, Nasdaq down 0.67% and S&P down 0.96%. The confused state in Asia in the morning opening today continues. Nikkei is green less than a percent, hang Seng too was green but red by half a percent point and Strait Times is just about green and looking down.

The state of affairs on the candles have turned from all bullish to mixed now. The candle was black and it missed engulfing the previous candle by 2 points otherwise it would have been a good bearish engulfing pattern. What are two points within good friends? we will call is bearish engulfing pattern. The Bollinger band has expanded a bit and 5 EMA still trails comfortably above 20 EMA and the candles trail the upper edge. The volumes were more than recent average and I will be posting the averages figures (comparative) from tomorrow onwards. (just came to know how and where to look up the figures from! Okay the bad news first – the Slow Stochastic have given a signal that is used by many traders to sell the positions. Apart from that the RSI is actually not too enthused. MACD divergence remains positive and at the same place we left them yesterday. TRIX still looks up and refuses to show doubts on the run up. Take your pick of being a bear or a bull now.

Pivot data…
R3 3209 against 3141 on yesterday
R2 3124
R1 3039
Pivot 2991 against 3081 on yesterday
S1 2906
S2 2858
S3 2773 against 2896 on yesterday
Projected High Range 3015 to 3081
Projected Low Range 3070 to 3004
Fib Projected High 3112
Fib Projected Low 2906

The range has increased – the upper band going up and lower band going down. Pivot too has moved down almost a 100 points – another interesting day in our hands. Best of luck…

I will no longer be posting the articles on TheIndianStocks as self and Aryan – the host of the site has a difference of opinion that does not have a middle ground.



leon said...

it seems Mr Aryan does not want any good posts to be free on his messageboard. Airbus has reduced his post frequency because of that and others too are moving out of THEindianstocks

S S Cheema said...

Leon: the issue was not that - after all I was not writing for theindianstocks, I was writing on my blog and also posting on that site - earlier I was told that do not give links to your blog - I never linked my posts there - yesterday he rang up and said that you are mentioning that the post are for you blog - I really lost my shirt - The word blog will figure out as I am cutting and posting there and i really do not have time for checking it for such political issues. Anyway I was not on a pay role and out of 10-20 post I used myself to be the only one trying to post on the markets - rest all was scrap - to anyone who went there for stocks and related.
I really do not care. But can feel bad for him.

Uma said...

cheema: congrats on your tata steel call! never imagined it shooting up to 227 at closing!

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Uma