Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Inconsequential day?…

I am on leave in Chandigarh and with four kids running around the house and the Xbox – there is really no time for updating the blog but all the same it has become a habit for me so here I go – up and awake after a late session of Halo3. Why do I call the trading yesterday as inconsequential? because the holiday mood extends and the volumes were fairly thin but the flow of the news regarding the Stimulus package and the rate cut by the banks gave it the push it required for a recovery from the otherwise weak market that was slipping red.Picture1 See the markets as of yesterday? The markets opened below the Pivot and was testing the Support at 2814 – then as it decided that enough is enough – it broke past the Pivot to go up to the R1 and ended below that. I sometimes wonder how these levels play such an important role at all. One more thing before I go ahead – the charts and markings are by me and they give a rough idea about the session – please do not take them to be too accurate as the lines are placed by me manually.

The behaviour of entire Asia was somewhat on the same lines – open weak and then went green. Nikkei closed up 0.09%, Hang Seng up 1.02% and Strait Times up 3.18%. Europe was better than Asia FTSE opened green closed green +2.44%, DAX up 1.63% and CAC up 0.47%. US was weak – actually US will remain weak for some time to come now and no amount of news can contribute in any sense to being good. DOW was down 0.37%, Nasdaq down 1.3% and S&P was down 0.39%. Inspite of all the negativities' the Asia today morning has opened green and climbed to better levels. Nikkei is up 1.28% as of now, Hang Seng is up 0.6% and Strait Times too seem to have made an attempt to go green but remains 0.43% in red.getImageFromSession.php

On the candles yesterday the candle was nice white one but unfortunately could not close above the 20 EMA, The markets trail the mid of Bollinger Bands and the bands remain of somewhat the same width only. The volumes were low and low participation shows. RSI is facing up again but to call it bullish – not yet. Slow Stochastic – both the red and green lines are in the oversold territory and a small bounce back with the help of the was due and may happen again. TRIX has changed its attitude and may change its view to bearish. MACD positive divergence has almost disappeared – but still is alive.

Pivot data… Notice the pivot at the same place as before.
R3 3050 against 3076 Yesterday
R2 3007
R1 2964
Pivot 2888 against 29887 yesterday
S1 2845
S2 2769
S3 2726 against 2698 Yesterday
Projected High Range 2926 to 2986
Projected Low Range 2876 to 2816
Fib Projected High 2963
Fib Projected Low 2779

Best of luck to everyone who is in the markets today – I am out….




Uma said...

cheema? what do you mean by wanting Unitech to be either 24 or 68? or was it just meant to be a joke?

Uma said...

btw, I'm glad you arrived safely. Wish you a wonderful and relaxing time with the family.
I'm in a self-imposed trading ban till 8th Jan. I'm only allowed 4 trades per 10 days and I blew up my 4 trades during the downtrend with my pin-point stop losses. Then it dawned on me that I can't trade for 15 more days! And as luck would have it, now the market is behaving exactly in line with my expectations. But I'm out, bless my jumpy finger on the trigger....!! Laugh if you like...!! I'm keeping my ban.
okie, to come off my bakwaas...

Nifty range will likely be 2700-3300.
Catch the down train at 3300 junction and the up train near 2800...and, wish everybody at home a wonderful new year!!

Uma said...

And I hope the dorks at ICICIBank finally generated your new password

Uma said...

ShareKhan always mails me my new password within 24-48 hrs!

Uma said...

Oh yea, one more thing, according to the bands of bollinger fame, Nifty in uptrend unless it breaks 2846. So, if u want to be long and ignore jaggu's dangerously bearish views, then keep SL around 2800 to be safe and attempt entry around 2866 yeh.

S S Cheema said...

Thanks for the advice Uma - what I meant by Unitech above 64 or below 24 is that I am in a strangle and I can generate profits if it goes anywhere outside this band. And yes the ICICI is up and working - but unfortunately too late - unitech is above 39 today. Any way will wait a few days.
Thanks and wish you a prosperous and a wonderful new year.

Uma said...

cheema: I don't see Unitech recovering in line with Nifty.
I wonder how you managed to get into a position that's stacked up so against you....that you only make money if it crashes 40% from CMP or shoots 80% from CMP. Ridiculous!