Monday, December 1, 2008

Who is the culprit?..... The Bears? or the Bulls?

Ofcourse not - the culprits are the Firangis - LOL. Nothing can really work with this kind of Global cues. No chance of recovery when DOW falls 700 odd points - no do not get me wrong - ofcourse the US does not open while we trade but the cues start pouring in with the Europe trading and the US futures giving the direction of opening. When the global markets enjoyed the upswing we had our own problems - now when we thought that our recovery will start for the stocks to catch up the lost ground the Global cues have turned the tables once again and they are weak like hell once again. The markets are also being manipulated to suite a certain number of operators. The FIIs and DIs were net buyers but the quantity was very low - this kept the volume extremely low and perhaps this was the reason that the markets - on otherwise good wicket - turned around to close negative like hell. There are not too many players in the markets now a days. Okay all the blame is not on global cues only - the sales figures from the auto stocks helped bears as the figures were bad. And do not worry we are not the only one in this situation - Bank of Japan too has called for a meeting today(02Dec) kick start the economy. The official line from US is that the country has been in recession from Dec 07.

Asia yesterday was mixed - Nikkei down 1.35%, Hang Seng up 1.59% and Strait Times down 2.44%. Europe opened flat with little negative bias and then dropped never to look up again. FTSE was down - closing 5.19% down, DAX down 5.88% and CAC down 5.59%. US did it again by dropping down 680 points - clocking fourth worst drop ever and closed well in red at the lowest levels for the day. DOw was down 7.70%, Nasdaq was down 8.95% and S&P down 8.93%. Yahoo finance says - I quote "....wall street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of recession..."

We came close to the crossing over to the top half of the Bollinger bands. The red 5 EMA line was threatening to cross the 20 EMA line but alas the black candle had to step in. The Bollinger bands are about the same width as before. The volumes as mentioned earlier - are less. MACD positive divergence remains so inspite of the black candle the mood may remain good for some time. RSI looked down because of yesterday - but good so far. Slow stochastic is one indicator that has turned sides. the red line has crossed over below the blue line before reaching the overbought zone. TRIX continues to look up - so even being on the loosing side I remain positive for third consecutive day.

Pivot data…

R3 2995 against 2868 last
R2 2890
R1 2786
Pivot 2727 against 2741 Last
S1 2623
S2 2564
S3 2460 against 2614 Last
Projected High Range 2757 to 2838
Projected Low Range 2825 to 2744
Fib Projected High 2876
Fib Projected Low 2624

A weak opening is certain considering the global cues but should watch out for the recovery towards the afternoon. Crude at 50$ a barrel. What the heck 1/3rd from its high and OPEC now wants to convene a meating and see how the prices can be kept stable at higher levels - LOL