Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Sure and steady….

Conflicting views on the direction our indexes will take in short term has created confusion but the markets are weathering all storms and moving steadily up – a small step at a time – beating bears here – killing them there. But every time it has defied the bears – every time it has taken a step to go up – it has been little less than expected by me. I did not perhaps realise that the bears are strong and cash rich. But my assumption was based on the fact that they have to let the bulls go to some heights before they meaningfully cull them. It may be actually that the bulls too are wary of each step they take. All said and done – I was of the opinion that the markets will go in the range of 32 to 35 hundred on nifty before the serious selling will set in. – Culling of bulls I meant. So we have some time to go before we reach there – one step at a time. I still stand by the figure I gave above. Now only markets have to prove me right – or wrong. getImageFromSession.php

There was nothing really good about the global cues or the markets. Infact we should see the weakness shown by the world markets somewhat magnified in our trading today. Asia was weak – except ofcourse our markets. Europe opened green then steadily slipped in red – at one point diving deep down then recovering close to the flat line but in red. FTSE was 0.07% red, DAX was 0.18% red and CAC closed 0.87% in red. US struggle continued with the fate of the automakers still hanging on a thread and while the comments were there to signal and calm the frayed nerves of the investors – there were no details on timings, amount or the term of the package to the big three daddies of US auto industry. While the General motors and Ford finished the session a few points in positive (0.14%) to be precise, The US indices traded in red. DOW was down 0.75%, Nasdaq down 2.1% and S&P down 1.27%.

The candle formed was white and good. The Bollinger bands have expanded a bit and the Candles are along the upper line of the bollinger bands. 5 EMA line is above the 20 EMA line. The volumes were same as yesterday. MACD positive divergence has increased and the goodness continues. RSI is good and so is TRIX. Now the problem – MACD red and blue lines are in overbought  zone and they do not intended remaining there for too long. That is the way so just a time before it drops (taking the markets down with it) Also the red line has already looked down attempting a crossover to the lower side. Another negative day in making today? Let us see.

Pivot data…
R3 3107 against 3060 on yesterday
R2 3065
R1 3023
Pivot 2970 against 2889 on yesterday
S1 2928
S2 2875
S3 2833 against 2719 on yesterday
Projected High Range 2996 to 3044
Projected Low Range 2980 to 2932
Fib Projected High 3037
Fib Projected Low 2891

Expected opening with weakness and may recover towards afternoon. Notice that the resistances have moved – all above 3000. R3 is now infact moved to 3100 levels. Best of luck everyone.