Thursday, December 25, 2008

The uptrend seems to be dying…. but will it?

What a sad way to see the uptrend that was labouring to be born – dying. Slowly – one by one all indicators are giving way to the onslaught of the bears. I feel sad – there was definitely a steam in this move – but it just does not seem to work out.Picture1 Every day one support after another is being tested or broken. I am still firm with the feeling that the market should ideally see higher levels but am not courageous enough to shout any longer. See the chart on the left – market was sailing on top of the support 1 testing it off and on but safe – but then like yesterday it broke and we were going down below Support 1. It did try to violate it once on the upside but did not stay there for long enough to be meaningful. Anyway the expiry has finished – for good or for bad and we have another month to see what the markets are up to. I still really do not know if it is the bears who are on to this or it is the lack of enthusiasm of the bulls that is the reason we are where we are. What I am really bothered about is that the markets should be up while we are now without too much of bad news. The bad news is likely to flow with the results of the next quarter. The saving grace would be the oil and inflation – but all the same till the markets are convinced this is the way we will remain. can you imagine we are down from Average true range in nifty to half of what was there two months back. Yesterday it was just 60 odd points. With the markets what they are, crude and commodities down, currencies in the state they are – I wonder where the big fish are. Waiting for a big catch?

The markets in Asia are nothing to talk about. Nikkei up and Hang Seng was mildly in red. Europe too was red. FTSE 0.93% red, Dax was closed and CAC was down 0.39%. There is bleak economic picture in US as the new data comes in – what would you egetImageFromSession.phpxpect in such a scenario? the markets closing up – Dow up 0.58%, Nasdaq up 0.22% and S&P up 0.26%. May be they saw too many days of down side and just decided so green tick would be good for a change on eve of Christmas.

The candles have left the upper edge of bollinger bands and that is not goo.this is fourth black candle by the way.we are below the 5 EMA and going below the 20 EMA. We never crossed above the 50 EMA. Volumes were low. MACD divergence has reduced. RSI going bearish Slow Stochastic bad and TRIX pausing – it may start looking down. Oooof ! that itself is hell of a lot.

Pivot data…
R3 3036 against 3123 on yesterday
R2 2996
R1 2956
Pivot 2928 against 2988 on yesterday
S1 2888
S2 2860
S3 2820 against 2853 on yesterday
Projected High Range 2942 to 2976
Projected Low Range 2960 to 2926
Fib Projected High 2986
Fib Projected Low 2881

See ya tomorrow. Bye!



Uma said...

Arre, these bears will try to confuse us. We won't fall for it...of course.

Uma said...

thanks for the technicals

S S Cheema said...

you are welcome uma

pokrate said...

Dollar is rising once again, the mighty currency can topple any security on its own. DOW has touched waters below 38.2% levels, and its the turn of our markets.