Sunday, November 30, 2008

A nation called India….

0700 hrs 01 Dec 08: Nikkei opens the month by opening red - dropping a bit and trying to recover - at the moment 1.98% down.

30 Nov 08: I am a third generation Indian – my grandfather was there in World War I, my father retired from Army – I am an Indian – I was born in Chennai – my brother was born in Dharamshala – I relate to each part of the country like no one else – being a Sikh I have spent my life in rest of India visiting Punjab during my leave only. I can assure you that my experience of the country can be matched by very few people. This country is a place of wonders – it has a life and mind of its own. It is a nation where President can be a Muslim, Prime Minister Sikh, master of the biggest and most powerful political party in the country a foreigner and blah blah blah…. the list goes on. Mind you the US that claims to be the biggest and most successful democracy – has yet to have the first non-white president take office. They did not let Communist party or the concept survive lest they find it catching on. Our’s is a great country – help it live. Actually so much would have already been written/spoken that I will just waste your time perhaps and you will skip the paragraph – but even at that cost – I would appeal – do not blame your problems at others and find in house solutions to your problems or our problems. Let us not do just lip service to the those who have laid down their lives for our tomorrow and that we can do by not being hypocrites – by just doing what we do best by doing it better. Must not let petty politics and issues divide this country. Call out that you are a proud Indian before you think religion, caste or job.

We would have probably had a good rally last few sessions had the events not taken the turn they did in Mumbai. There were operators who probably spread rumours of firing left right and centre to make the market move – trust us the Indians to take bets on others dying – life in a day in India. Shucks – I do get senti when I come to this but let me weigh in all the things. This incident of Mumbai will put a lot of pressure on the govt to show some performance after this set back. Let us see what they can do other than what they have already done to calm the nation. They have already stepped down Patil, Side stepped our punching bag – Chiddu – now we can expect the fuel rate cut earlier than before, the pressure on banks will increase to cut rates – there should be SOPS on infrastructure, housing and small industry. All this and the technicals’  should help the markets go higher. Like I have been maintaining for last few sessions – it is not the time to short – the technicals are building up an up move and will turn up to be a trap. There will be a time to short. Our GDP figures are better than expected. Inflation figures are better than before at 8.84% and we are likely to have the inflation drop further with the inevitable drop in fuel prices.

On the Global cues front US is reporting a surprising solid start to the holiday season shopping. Asia opened flat and ended green – Nikkei up 1.66%, Hang Seng up 2.48% and Strait Times up 1.29%. Europe too had its ups and down – opening flat going green – then red – then green and red again finally ending up green – but just about. FTSE was up 1.46%, Dax was up 0.09% and CAC was up 0.38%. US is showing green but on the yahoo site the markets seems to have ended abruptly so take the figures I give with a pinch of salt – Dow seems to be up 1.17%, Nasdaq up 0.23% and S&P up 0.96%. All in all all the indices are green. Like I said the shopping seems to be strong but do consider it that the industry had to take some very tough decisions of slashing prices more than before to attract crowds. Well all the same the very fact that the data inflow is strong – may improve the sentiment.

The candles have reached the middle of Bollinger bands and are slowly and steadily moving up – on step at a time. The Bollinger Bands are still contracting and that is good. The 5EMA line is catching up with the 20 EMA line and we may see a small crossover this time. Just by the way this would have been its third try this month. The candle was a small one with a small white body. The volumes are good. the MACD is bullish there was an attempt by the red line to crossover below the blue line but has turned up again. So as far as I am concerned it remains bullish. The RSI is bullish and Slow Stochastic red line remains above the blue line and is short of being overbought – good now – may turn bad once it enters overbought zone. TRIX is still looking up – so like always I go with the TRIX for medium term.

Pivot data…

R3 2868 against 2881 last
R2 2830
R1 2792
Pivot 2741 against 2719 Last
S1 2703
S2 2652
S3 22614 against 2557 Last
Projected High Range 2767 to 2811
Projected Low Range 2746 to 2702
Fib Projected High 2803
Fib Projected Low 2665

Best of luck for the coming week.



H S Cheema said...

Please read my grand father was there in world war 1 for World War Two

S S Cheema said...