Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Just when we thought that the bad news was over....

How many times do we say crazy and leave it at that - there can be no more bad news - the US does not rest a while to find new venues to post bad news. The latest in the list of bad news is that the home prices have posted record drop. The Obama now has started with trying to get a grip on understanding the magnitude of the problem he faces and keeping a provision of 800 billion dollars to try to fight off the recession - hell with the US bad news - the point is that when we had a fair chance to recover today - bulls just did not have it in them. Did they not have it or was it that bears were too strong? The volumes were fairly high - infact with such volumes a very strong upmove or down move could have resulted - but that too was missing really. Me? I had frankly expected a fair upmove considering that there were positive circumstantial conditions built up. The Asia was up, there is now a firm hope of fuel cut after the present round of elections - that is in Dec last week, we had closed negative for too long and expiry is this week. Now there is a twist - if we kept in the narrow range that we did yesterday and today - was due to shorts getting covered - then the bulls have had no role in the markets being green for last two days - for whatever time. And that is bad - that would imply that there is no serious buying in the markets that is going around and it was the bears only panicking that kept the markets green and if they decide they would be able to break so called support levels with ease. My My - how did I think of all this? GOD only knows - that is my theory. In any case the rally for whatever it is worth is just a bear rally and will disappear like water on sand.

The Asia was good - it remained good on closing as unlike us they had closed and were not too much affected by the Europe opening. Nikkei was green climed further up and then closed 5.22% up, Hang Seng was 3.38% up and Strait Times was 2.03% up in green. Europe opened red and that is what probably affected us and we too dropped. however the Europe had by mid session touched good heights. however towards the closings the markets dropped and closed flat but green. FTSE was up 0.44%, Dax up 0.13% and CAC up 1.18%. The US started the day with a bold face but now - by mid session it is deep red. Dow is 1.02% red, Nasdaq down 1.77% and S&P is down 0.79% - ready to break some new LOW records? We will just have to wait and watch. The crude too is dropping and as mentioned in one of the posts earlier the commodity is following the stock markets and they are leading the trend.

The candles - exactly two white and we are back to back candle - the candle really is not implying anything - just a black candle stick that looks like an inverted hammer and that has no meaning after a upswing. So that is that. Bollinger bands seem like expanding and that to just a wee bit. The divergence between the 5 EMA line and the 20 EMA line is same as before. Volumes were more than yesterday - MACD red line and the blue line are virtually overlapping but the red line is above the blue line - for whatever it is worth. Mass index is indicating continuation of the down trend. RSI is good but looking down. Slow Stochastic is good with the red line still above the blue line and crossing the 50 marker. TRIX is flat and yet to make up its mind which side to go.

Still we have a bit more positive indicators than negative - for that time being that is. Let us see where they take us. The Pivot data is as under.

R3 2942 against 2847 yesterday
R2 2846
R1 2750
Pivot 2694 against 2693 yesterday
S1 2598
S2 2542
S3 2446 against 2540 yesterday

Projected High Range 2722 to 2798
Projected Low Range 2782 to 2706
Fib Projected High 2831
Fib Projected Low 2596

Pivot remains virtually at the same place and the Resistances have moved up and Supports have moved down relatively - so another volatile session in our hands?