Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Not bad... Not bad....

05 Nov 08: I do not know who will win the Presidential elections in US. Its not that I do not care but all the same it is not about my choice or the choice that has been flashed on the idiot box. I would rather wait and see for another few hours who walks to the White House. Will Obama be good for US or India? Or will McCain do better? Will it make so much of a difference to take the country out of the mess they are in? Well I never really followed what they want to do so closely to answer any of these questions - but the rally on the eve on the elections? May be I am missing something. Well like I said earlier - all the same - what goes out of my pocket to make some money in this run. What I hear on the idiot box is that everyone is cautious and the markets are going up - ofcourse - they will go up till the time we are cautious - it is only when we will become overconfident - over leverage and invest some more - will the bears strike - in any case I have been feeling that we will achieve the levels anywhere between 3200-3500 before we hit stops.

The Global cues were good to be frank - In asia Nikkei was just covering the track that others had covered when they were closed. Europe moved steadily in one direction after opening and that is Northwards. FTSE closed 4.42% up, Dax 5% up and Cac 4.62% up. US by this time had the F&O trading in green and when the US did ipen they were in in green. they tried to dip southwards but the election day coupled with better-than-expected quarterly earning results, improvement in credit market and a report that the broader range of financial firms may receive investments from the treasury kept the markets up. Just short of the closing the profit tried to kick in but was again overpowered by the bulls. Dow closed up 305 points (3.28%) Nasdaq was up 3.12% and S&P was up 4.08%. The rally - if you call this one was fairly broad based.

This it it - I almost yelled when I saw the candles - five straight white candles shinning bright. The Bollinger bands have contracted further and that is good. The candles are now in the middle of the band. If we have to correct - then this is the place from where we head down - a bit before the 5 EMA crossover of the 20 EMA. Another good day (which is likely - taking the global cues) the 5 EMA line will cross over the 20 EMA. Volumes were not great be Okay. MACD red line has crossed the blue line and is above it - with a fair divergence. Mass Index is oscillating between 26.5 & 27. RSI is good and bullish. Here comes the twist . MACD - both blue and red lines are in overbought territory. The momentum is upwards and is good and TRIX for a change (after a long time) is looking up. So the rally is supported upwards so far. The markets are terming this as year end rally.

For the Nifty Pivot levels...
R3 3147
R2 3260
R1 3201
Pivot 3093
S1 3034
S2 2926
S3 2867

Projected High range 3147 to 3230
Projected Low range 3073 to 2990
Fib Projected High 3197
Fib Projected Low 2939

Best of luck to all. We may open between R1 & R2 and there are chances that we test the pivot during the day.



Harbhajan said...

dear Simerpreet Cheema, You could take a chance for once of being sure about Obama's win and market being in green. Any how well done for your analysis.

Uma said...

right on both, Obama won and market opened in green...

S S Cheema said...

LOL - yeah yeah

Uma said...

I just wrote you an email - please check.

Harbhajan said...

I tend to differ with you on Barak Obama.U.S.A is passing through extra ordinary times which need extra ordinary person to handle. Barak Obama is one such person.Walking on beaten track will not help He is dynmic and right choice the Americans have made. I wish him all the best to bring the country and the world out of mess it is in.

Uma said...

Obama is a smooth-talking crook. After praising India and winning over NRI community he has finally penalized those companies that produce their stuff abroad and has more anti-outsourcing steps lined up. Kala ho ya gora, sabka maksad ek hi hai. To screw the rest of the world.