Wednesday, November 5, 2008

What? Bulls that's all you have .... you have let me down...

0745hrs 06 Nov 08: The US markets slipped deep red and closes a bit more than 5% down. Asia has opened where US ended - more than 5% down... Bears will have a ball of a run today.

05 Nov 08: I was quite surprised when we got hammered. It was expected one of these days - V shaped recovery had all the indications to be false illusion - but whatever happened to days to fall - weeks to consolidate and then emerging trends. Everyone seems to be in a hurry to do something - bulls want to markets to recover fast - bears want to break the markets in a hurry and ofcourse I want to make tons of money in a hurry. Well I am still a long way from achieving my aims. Okay now yesterday I had argued - how the hell does it makes a difference who is in the hot seat in US - for the time being whosoever sits in that seat has nothing but tons of trouble in their hands. Name it - big problems Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Korea, China, Pakistan, Russia, Oil and to top it all the economic condition at home. I won't envy Obama. I hear people around - a president at age of 47 yrs or whatever - I have a different outlook. This is no age to look after the world affairs - infact I will say so much that the adventurism (or mis-adventurism) of youngsters is showing in the American way of handling things. There are some things where maturity necessarily comes with age and Politics is one of them. We had our share - young dynamic - all well but not around anymore - you should have guessed it - Rajiv is whom I am talking about. So to have celebrated his victory by going green! - believe me he is not the miracle drug that US economy needs. What it needs is a change of lifestyle of three present generations. I read yesterday on Jaggu's blog - Calofornia alone uses as much fossil gasoline as much as India or China. Is it not crazy that this nation had the cheeks to say that the growth in demand in India is going to create world wide commodity shortages. Oof that was way out of the line and let me get back on the track.

I have noticed it earlier - we react at times to the future prospect of US trend much earlier than the rest of Asia. Hey I may not be able to substantiate it but that is what it is like. Take today for example - there was no inkling from any quarter that disaster awaits the world. After all Europe yesterday was good, US was wonderful and so was Asia. But did we foresee it? Anyway to the markets now. Nikkei opened green and traded green ending 4.46% up, Hang Seng closed 3.17% in green and Strait Times was 2.14% green. Europe has already finished its honeymoon with the Obama factor. It opened red and presently trades - FTSE 1.98% red, Dax 1.55% red and Cac 2.32% red.US has opened all red Dow down 1.68%, Nasdaq 1.61% red and S&P 1.64% red. It is really too early in their trade to make predictions but the trend is likely to remain so.

The candles today show a bearish engulfing pattern and may end our short and sweet honeymoon with the bulls. It is a fairly strong reversal signal. Infact I mentioned yesterday that we were in the middle of the bollinger bands and if we have to correct it was either the time or some more run up is possible. The Bollinger bands are of more or less the same bandwidth as before. 5 EMA now runs parallel to 20 EMA line and the crossover does not seem likely at the moment. On MACD the red line is above the blue line and positive divergence remains. TRIX has not changed its bullish mindset still - may take some more to convince it to look down. Slow Stochastic red line has dropped sharply down below the Blue line and both of them are in overbought territory - so a few days worth of down side may still be there. RSI too looks down. Not bearish at the moment - but looks down. So that's it - I will be traveling 200 odd km in the night - so if I wake up and have time before rushing to the office will definitely update the blog.

The Pivot data -
R3 3510
R2 3338
R1 3166
Pivot 3068
S1 2897
S2 2799
S3 2627

Projected High Range 3117 to 3252
Projected Low Range 3228 to 3093
Fib Projected High 3313
Fib Projected Low 2897

Possible to break S1 tomorrow.



Uma said...

I wrote you an email - please check.
PS: You sounded delighted abut the crash and now you're complaining that bulls let you down!