Thursday, November 20, 2008

Another day gone by.....

And we wait for yet another day for some miracle to happen. We are now at the lowest ebb perhaps as far as the markets are concerned. There is just no respite - one day after the another falling to yet another low. I got up early to update the blog and as I switched on my idiot box - there it goes - blah! blah! blah! Every third day Dow is going back to 1 years low and is presently at 5.5/6 year low, S&P is at 11 year low. So that's the outlook for today. If US fall at this rate then we are somewhere there. Mind you that markets had pretty well stabilised there in US and were infact along the flat line going one in green and once in red in a pretty narrow range. The proposal or let me put it this way that the US govt refused to put any pennies in the Automobiles begging bowl and that coupled with the fact that Crude broke below 50$ sent the markets crashing south wards. Just south wards may not do justice - let me put it this way - the markets dropped down in a well. The bottom is not to be seen yet.

Hardly anything worthwhile to talk about on the international seen except that the drop took all the markets one after the another to new lows. Europe was down on an average 3%. FTSE down 3.26%, Dax down 3.08% and CAC 3.48%. US like I have mentioned earlier - was somewhat alright till about an hour or so before closing - then it went down the well - Dow closed down 5.56%, Nasdaq down 5.07% and S&P down 6.71% - what is it again Standard and Poor - yeah the poor part. Seeing this the asia has opened week but not showing the kind of losses that US showed. Infact after opening with deep cuts the indices tried to go towards recovery - but the bears seem to be too strong yet. Never know, never know...

On the candles there is nothing new here too. Candles have finally reached the lower bottom and only hope is that the candles should not voilate the lower bands. MACD - having positive divergence for so long - has survived again - but any onslaught today and it will be in negative territory. RSI just short of going to the oversold territory. TRIX too is still not really looking down and that is actually some performance. On closing basis we closed above Oct 27 levels - yesterday the markets were basically trading within S1 and S2. Slow stochastic too is in oversold territory. Mass Index shows the continuation of the down trend. We should not go down further - but take it this way - the global indications are just too negative. Mind you - Asia is holding its head at about 2 -3% down Nikkei presently at 2.22%, Hang Seng down 2.99% and Strait Times down 1.65%.

Guys is there something wrong with me? Idiot box is recommending people to go short at these levels after we have dropped for 8 straight days. Crazy if they turn out to be right. Any way - The nifty pivots are...

R3 2766 against 2927 yesterday
R2 2695
R1 2624
Pivot 2563 against 2674 yesterday
S1 2492
S2 2431
S3 2360 against 2422 yesterday

Projected High Range 2593 to 2659
Projected Low Range 2608 to 2542
Fib Projected High 2669
Fib Projected Low 2466

Best of luck ... Will Pivot and S1 hold? It is challenging to spell this out but I feel so.