Thursday, November 6, 2008

Complicated times ahead......

0700hrs 07 Nov 08: Yahoo page said "US Stocks Loose 10%" and I thought this is it. I refreshed the page again and again and the drop was struck around 5%. Then I read the whole thing - it said "Stocks loose 10% in two-day rout" - All the same - the stocks have dropped like hot bricks. Dow is down 4.85%, Nasdaq down 4.34% and S&P down 5.03%. Nikkei opened down in red and has slipped down even more - presently at 6.66% Red (see it again 666 - the number of the devil - LOL) Strait Times is down 4.68%. Be ready to for a rock and roll session again.

The increase in inflation that was given out yesterday - was minor and I am sure that the inflation will not go up - it may move sideways for some time if at all. Anyone following Crude? 60$ a barrel! count on the fuel price drop - whenever it comes will lower inflation a few points again.

06 Nov 08: Every time I sit down to as to assess what and where we are off too - I see trouble in all we see and hear. What most had expected today was perhaps that we fall well and go down - down deep. What happened previously was that those who (including retail) managed to do bottom fishing - were given handsome returns in a very short period of time - 30-35% in most cases and 50-60% and above for those who got into the right stocks. So what happens now is that ever time there is an attempt to break down - the hopefulls do what they believe is bottom fishing. That may have been the main reason that we bounced back with vengeance and rebounded back to the 3000 region - of course that did not survive and we were down back to test the lower levels. I am fairly certain that this would be seen a number of times as we test each lower level now - the opportunists will be there to check/probe/attack each lower levels. There is a same problem as we would test each higher level. Profit booking by the hopeful who see levels as low as 1500 (that's my imagination perhaps) on Nifty. Now this should keep us range bound till the time the break out is there in any direction with volumes and conviction. Do we call it consolidation? I was really expecting levels better than what we touched at present to drop back - 3200 to 3500 was my estimate - but I guess we are just too jittery to carry forward the positions. Now this battle within bulls and bears may intensify - and volatility may increase - but let me warn you - that this is opposite of what I heard on the idiot box today. Some seemingly learned people were saying that the volatility is reducing. I am at a loss to define the todays dance by Nifty as a indicator of approaching low volatility.

Asia was bad - Nikkei down 6.53%, Hang Seng Down 7.08% and Strait Times down 2.66%. Europe followed suite with FTSE down 5.62%, Dax was down 7.04% and CAC down 6.38%. US is where it all starts. US opened flat - then slowly and slowly is slipping down with every second. Dow presently - just short of the mid session is down 2.65% Nasdaq down 2.24% and S&P down 2.77%. Though there seems no indication of recovery but we may see US recovering - try to see no logic in this - just a stupid feeling. I will definitely try to update tomorrow morning.

The candles just support the Bearish engulfing pattern that they showed yesterday - The candles say - no way - we are heading down. The Bollinger band has not expanded but remain with the same width. 5 EMA is below 20 EMA - volumes were below yesterdays'. The MACD divergence is still positive and almost the dame as yesterday's. The uptrend momentum is intact and TRIX is still looking up. Hey TRIX looking up? well that's a surprise - so called leading indicator. RSI is looking down. MACD red line has already fallen below the blue line yesterday and now it is below the overbought zone - blue line is about to drop down below 80 marker. mass Index is indecisive and still hovers between 26.5 to 27. There is nothing much to the indicators really they are probably as confused as the markets. Will wait for the day to see where we head.

The Pivot data -
R3 3154
R2 3066
R1 2979
Pivot 2919
S1 2832
S2 2772
S3 2685

Projected High Range 2949 to 3023
Projected Low Range 2991 to 2917
Fib Projected High 3046
Fib Projected Low 2820

Will we breach S2?



geniusjaggu said...

oye gd mrng paaji,
where are the stars to rate u ????
taare zameen parrrrrrr....

S S Cheema said...

Hi Jaggu - I missed your blog - wake up a little earlier - will you?

geniusjaggu said...

little early is 10-20 mins early for me...haa haa....

Uma said...

thanks for fibo levels.

S S Cheema said...

Welcome as always. ;-)